First off, once WVU is formally a member of the Big XII they will find themselves with new challenges. They will be stepping up in the caliber football and upon closer inspection it could be argued that they will find a tougher hoops league as well. I have a feeling that the Mountaineers are going to find it very difficult to compete initially in the league.
As for the television markets, WVU under the best of scenarios would be the a distant second in popularity in Pittsburgh. But even if they were the team of dominant influence (and they are clearly not) that will still just be one Top-30 market along with a Top-70 (Charleston-Huntington) and a top 160 (Bluefield-Beckley). Yeah, that's a really appealing draw for television executives under the wildest of any Mountaineer's dreams.
Frankly neither WVU or Louisville were particularly appealing but the league needed a 10th and they were available.
As for the CUSA-MWC alliance, let's take a look at where things stand for 2012-2013 right now:
Mountain West Conference (10)
- Air Force (Possibly Big East)
Boise State (Possibly Big East)
Colorado State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Nevada
New Mexico
San Diego State
UNLV
Wyoming
Conference USA (12)
- East Division
ECU
Marshall
Memphis
Southern Miss
UAB
UCF (Possibly to Big East)
West Division
Houston (possibly to Big East)
Rice
SMU (Possibly to Big East)
Tulane
Tulsa
UTEP
In other words, barring anyone moving to the Big East they would likely stand at 22 members. So to get to the 24 they would likely look to add two schools to the MWC to create balance in parity. That would help none at all. The MWC has no interest in BYU after their acrimonious exit this past year to independence (something folks in Provo are probably regretting right about now). So they would likely dip into the WAC for any potential additions:
WAC
- Idaho
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Texas State
Utah State
UTSA
Frankly from the MWC's perspective, that is a fairly ugly lineup of suitors. The league has made it clear that it would prefer to stay away from Texas which would likely discount the new FBS neighbors in San Marcos & San Antonio. IMHO Utah State would be a shoe-in with the MWC picking between the leftovers and possibly FCS Montana. La Tech is the most attractive addition but would be likely off the list due to geography.
Having worked through that scenario, let's now assume that Air Force, Boise State, UH, SMU & UCF all bolt to the "Big" East. Suddenly the picture changes completely ...
At that point, the MWC essentially becomes the WAC of a decade ago with no marquee teams remaining in their 8 leftovers. They also wouldn't necessarily have any interest in expansion unless there was a gentleman's agreement for several CUSA schools such as UTEP, Tulsa & Rice to jump leagues to MWC. Frankly I don't know how that would work. UTEP would probably be OK with it since they would know longer have TCU, SMU or UH on their schedules to help them at the gate. But I'm not sure Tulsa or Rice would have any interest in getting back into those ridiculous WAC-style travel arrangements (western flights are much more expensive than eastern ones where there are more carriers & routes). So let's say UTEP and Utah State join the MWC to give them an even ten.
Now to the C-USA, they would drop to 9 schools without divisions if the schools bolt to the Big East and 8 if UTEP slides over to their more geographically appropriate MWC home. For their to be a 24-team setup, they would be looking to add five teams. I would suggest that their first invitation would be to Louisiana Tech who has repeatedly turned down their overtures in the past. Times have changed and they would have no choice but to accept the invitation. The other three would likely go to Texas schools to create a 7-team low cost southwest division from the group of North Texas, Texas State & UTSA:
- Louisiana Tech
North Texas
Rice
Texas State
Tulane
Tulsa
UTSA
Now we head to the east division of C-USA where the five remaining schools would have just two slots available to bump up to 14 if a 24-team league is their goal. They would likely dip into the Sunbelt where they would have a pick of the litter. if I were a betting man then I'd suggest FIU & FAU get the call to form a new C-USA East"
- ECU
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Marshall
Memphis
Southern Miss
UAB
In other words, a 24-team CUSA-MWC alliance wouldn't help our cause much at all except possibly getting us in the mix for a Sunbelt bid. So we need the C-USA-MWC alliance to get to 32 or 36 teams to be a factor. If that were to happen the most likely scenario would be for Conference USA to go back to its roots for a 3-division or possibly 4-division setup. The two divisions above would likely add another member or see a shift. The most likely scenario would keep MWC at 10 or 12 (add in NM State & San Jose State for the sake of argument) and have C-USA go to three 8-team divisions. Based on the pool of schools I list before, here is a possible scenario:
East Division (2):
South Division (5):
- Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Memphis
Southern Miss
UAB
Southwest Division (7):
- Louisiana Tech
North Texas
Rice
Texas State
Tulane
Tulsa
UTSA
In other words, they would be looking primarily in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions for teams. Let's now take a look at who might be left for them to consider in those areas:
Sunbelt leftovers:
- Arkansas State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee State
South Alabama
Troy
Western Kentucky
FCS Schools Reportedly At Least Somewhat Interested in Moving Up:
- Appalachian State
Charlotte
Delaware
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Jacksonville State
JMU
Liberty
ODU
Then it all comes down to how the C-USA powers that be decide they value the schools. At first glance, the three schools that stand out off that list are Louisiana-Lafayette, Appy & Charlotte. The former would fit in nicely with the Southwest division while the other two make an easy fit into either of the two divisions. So we would likely be battling the rest for one of the handful of spots. One thing is for certain is that we would definitely be in the mix. Coveting the East Coast television markets I would suggest that the east division would likely be built on FCS move-ups while the South division would target Sunbelt schools. And yes, I am aware of the Sunbelt buyouts. But if a school wants to keep FBS football and not drop down to FCS, it will be time to fish or cut bait.
--Fumble (1961-2009), RIP
- By LU Armchair coach
- By Touchdownmaker
- By flameshaw