[Knucklehead]

great insight Lang for a guy who doesn't understand any of this stuff.

[PAmedic]

Look, the AGS people can talk all they want about the seven-win thing. But why would the NCAA even tell Liberty it was being considered if that was a hard rule?

They're either going to have to take a 7-4 team or take a team without 7 DI wins. And Eastern Illinois does not deserve to go. 12th rated conference in FCS. No good wins. A bad loss to Illinois State. Second place in that league. I'd vote a 7-4 from the CAA before I'd vote for EIU. But that's just me.

Figured we had a serious shot if they called.

I'm calling it the Rocco factor. He really has earned respect at this level.

Looking at all the teams - my layman's view is that we are 1 of about 4 teams vying for 2 spots.

just my gut feeling.

[Schfourteenteen]

So heres what I got

IN
Montana(Big Sky Champ)
UMass(CAA Champ) or CAA#2
Richmond(CAA #2)
JMU(CAA#3)
Northern Iowa(Gateway Champ)
Southern Illinois(Gateway #2)
Delaware State(MEAC Champ)
Eastern Kentucky(Ohio Valley Champ)
Fordham(Patriot League Champ)
App State(Southern Champ)
Wofford(Southern #2)
McNeese State(Southland Champ)

Which leaves 4 Spots between
Eastern Washington(8-3, Big Sky #2)
Liberty(8-3, Big South Champ)
Delaware(8-3, CAA #4)
Norfolk State(8-3, MEAC #2)
Albany(8-3, Northeast Champ)
Eastern Illinois(8-3, Ohio Valley #2)
Dayton(10-1, Pioneer Champ)

I think we have a shot here.

[JDUB]

i was REALLY close to rocco when they presented the trophy tonight. the guy that gave it to him (bsouth commish?) said that he hoped we play next week, and he challenged the NCAA to find a team whose played better than us the last 7 games.

all the talk I was hearing tonight was about next week.
the team is having a meeting at 3 tomorrow. when rocco walks in he will already know if were going or not

[Hold My Own]

wow....we got a legit shot at this


I mean out of that last list Schfourteenteen posted we're a top 4 no doubt

[Schfourteenteen]

I did leave out every 7-4 team like Nova and NH but no 7-4 team has ever gotten an atlarge bid

[SuperJon]

We're the champions of the #7 ranked FCS conference in which our average game was something like 46-17. We got a shot.

[rjhenz]

So heres what I got

IN
Montana(Big Sky Champ)
UMass(CAA Champ) or CAA#2
Richmond(CAA #2)
JMU(CAA#3)
Northern Iowa(Gateway Champ)
Southern Illinois(Gateway #2)
Delaware State(MEAC Champ)
Eastern Kentucky(Ohio Valley Champ)
Fordham(Patriot League Champ)
App State(Southern Champ)
Wofford(Southern #2)
McNeese State(Southland Champ)

Which leaves 4 Spots between
Eastern Washington(8-3, Big Sky #2)
Liberty(8-3, Big South Champ)
Delaware(8-3, CAA #4)
Norfolk State(8-3, MEAC #2)
Albany(8-3, Northeast Champ)
Eastern Illinois(8-3, Ohio Valley #2)
Dayton(10-1, Pioneer Champ)

I think we have a shot here.

I like what you did but I think there will be one spot left
Albany had no bad losses (all 7-4 teams and better) and they beat Fordham I think they should get IN
Dayton will probably get in 10-1 and the lost is in division to a 7-4 team, I say they are IN
I don't like saying this but Delaware should be IN no bad losses, losses to 7-4 teams or better and beat JMU which will be in with the same record

So now we are down to one spot I believe and we need to add another team to the list
San Diego (Pioneer #2) 9-2 record one bad loss to UC Davis... Should they get the last spot with that record???
Liberty (Big South Champs) 8-3 Losses to W&M, Elon, and a FBS team
Eastern Washington(8-3, Big Sky #2) bad Portland St. loss
Norfolk State(8-3, MEAC #2) bad lost to Howard
Eastern Illinois(8-3, Ohio Valley #2) bad lost to Ill St.

What can help us is that we are hot right now and we rolled through our division and our losses are early but they are bad and we have what I would say are 2 bad losses, guess we will find out tomorrow

[Hold My Own]

LOL....now I dont feel so good...San D is hard to go against


we keep talking about the Toledo game and W&M game....but really even with those two losses I think we're in...Elon may be the straw that broke the camels back

[Schfourteenteen]

Albany is in a worse conference than us, the Fordham victory gives them a very good case

Delaware is probably in

Dayton is in a terrible conference and if I am correct didnot play a single decent team, thats why SD will not get in, theres no possible way that conference will get 2 bids

You already pointed out losses, also note that Ohio Valley is a lame conference

Now with arguement to our poor conference, we won every game by at least 30 points (I dont remember the CCU score so forgive me)

[Hold My Own]

good points...I'm feeling better


I cant take this any more, I'm going to bed this roller coaster is not fun

[PAmedic]

I just don't think the Blue Hens get in this year. That loss to Villanova today may well be the nail in their coffin.

[SuperJon]

They beat Navy though. Plus the committee wants their UD/DSU game. Delaware's in.

[rjhenz]

Albany is in a worse conference than us, the Fordham victory gives them a very good case

Delaware is probably in

Dayton is in a terrible conference and if I am correct didnot play a single decent team, thats why SD will not get in, theres no possible way that conference will get 2 bids

You already pointed out losses, also note that Ohio Valley is a lame conference

Now with arguement to our pisspoor conference, we won every game by at least 30 points (I dont remember the CCU score so forgive me)

Dayton did beat Fordham, I think that gets them in with winning the conference, I don't think the SD will get in either but I think they will be considered because of the record, i think they will at least be looked at

Ohio Valley is poor I agree but I think with having those two loses to W&M and Elon are going to hurt (looking at the other teams that have a chance each only has one bad loss to our two) along with our conference. I hope they take in consideration how we rolled through the conference and finished strong, We made a statement today against GW shutting them out

[ATrain]

I think Deleware gets in, they did beat Navy afterall. Also, I don't think Dayton is going to make it, even with a 10-1 record. They play in the no-scholly Pioneer league, which is very weak.

[rjhenz]

nova isn't a bad enough team to hurt the hens that much, nova's losses are to the Umass, UR, JMU, and the university of Maryland

[Sly Fox]

There is zero chance two Pioneer teams get in. Zero. Frankly I don't think non-scholie teams beating each other is as impressive as our DII victories.

This could get interesting. I drove by Prairie View tonight on my way home from Austin and saw the stadium lights. It was fun having a legitimate cheering interest in a local game for me.

[Schfourteenteen]

Tomorrow the Committee will set a new precedent tomorrow, and based on which way they decide to go that will determine our fate.

One of these Scenarios will happen:

1: A 7-4 team will make the playoffs as an At-large bid. This has never happened before, but there are a couple teams that make a good case: New Hampshire, Villanova, and Georgia Southern would be the teams benefitting from that decision. If this happens we have no hope whatsoever.

2: A conference will get 4 bids. This is statistically highly unlikely because 4 from one conference has only happened once. However, Delaware has an 8-3 record and is 4th behind JMU, and seems to be the most sound of the 8-3 teams left. This wont effect us as much as #1, but it would obviously take away a spot.

3: A team with under 7 DI wins makes the playoffs. I dont believe this has ever happened, but Liberty would be the team to breakthrough. An AD on the committee, our good finish, and our 8-3 record will help, but we have a couple big holes too.

Tomorrow is a huge day, and if for some reason someone knows whether we make it before 330 please dont make the title of the subject to be "Liberty makes/misses the playoffs" I want to find out at 330

[Schfourteenteen]

This will hurt us big time

http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/2007/Interne ... s_cumm.pdf

[SuperJon]

What is that?

[SuperJon]

We're a long shot, but here's our case:

8-3 record

Big South Champs (#7 ranked conference in FCS)

Won conference game 47.75-17.

If you add Presby (non-conference this year but a game the conference made us play), our average conference score was 47.8-16.4.

Add in our other Div I win, and we won our six Div I games by a margin of 51-15.

Two of our three losses were by a combined eight points. Against W&M, we lost in Double OT after coming back from down big. Against Toledo, we lost the game in the last two minutes.

Like it or not, the committee takes into off the field things as well. We're a great story (two seasons off a 1-10 record, first Big South in school history, all in the season after our #1 fan and founder passed away).

Also, they look at money. We're one of the few schools that can almost guarantee ticket sales anywhere. We have the resources to buy our students' tickets for free (it's happened multiple times in basketball games where students just showed up and boosters bought the tickets). This guarantees the NCAA money.


Now, the negatives:

Less than 7 Div I wins.

Blowout loss to Elon.

People see the Big South as a terrible conference.

W&M ended up not being good.



We have a case. I'm not saying it's a great one, just that we have a case.

[Schfourteenteen]

Winning % of DI teams played, as in our opponents win%

Ranked 105th

[PAmedic]

eh- Montana, Montana St and EIU were ranked right in there as well.

at least one of them will be in the playoffs anyway

[rjhenz]

Winning % of DI teams played, as in our opponents win%

Ranked 105th

This might hurt we'll see... a lot of the so called good teams that are ranked and going to playoffs had weak ratings as well but yes this doesn't help our case...

109 McNeese St. (They are suppose to be one that gets a possible 1-4 seed for a home game in playoffs) Ranked 4rd in polls
106 Eastern ILL. (Ranked 20 in polls)
105 LU
99 Montana (Another suppose to get a 1-4 seed for a home game for playoffs) Ranked 3th in polls
79 JMU (Rankd 13th in poll)
77 Eastern Wash. (Ranked 15th in polls)
74 Delaware St.(Rank # 10 in polls)
73 Northern Iowa (Another suppose to get a 1-4 seed for a home game in playoffs, Who is ranked #2 in the poll)

[PeterParker]

How much does it factor in to the committee's choice given that LU is statistically speaking ranked nationally #3 in scoring?

#3 behind San Diego & App State

[According to: http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp ... f&site=org ]