Things are coming more clearly into focus today if the flood of reports have any accuracy to them whatsoever. Here is how I see the next couple of days playing out:
Big XII:
Arizona & Arizona State seem to be locks to make the move now that it is clear in Tempe that the B1G is not an option. Utah likely jumps out of desperation recognizing what is happening around them. Honestly they need the Big XII MUCH more than the other way around. So with no leverage, they will likely cave. If however they hold out hope for some miracle, it could get interesting with UConn. If the B1G decides not to offer the PacNW schools a home, they wil pounce. But that likely won't need to be the clase.
B1G:
Washington & Oregon will be brought into league at half or less shares. I expect this to be public by Tuesday. The economics for the two schools will be similar to Big XII offering but with the promise of full membership at the next media contract. Short term competitive disadvantage against the L.A. schools is worthe long term substance. Phil Knight will keep Oregon from obscurity and UDub is UDub. It will always be attractive as long as the run their athletic department wisely leveraging their new P2 membership. No one else moves the needle for the B1G which is just taking advantage of a situation they created last summer. Stanford will always be out there if Notre Dame ever comes around. But that's not happening this decade.
Pac-12:
By far the unclear situation on multiple fronts. Stanford & Cal are not likely to join any other league as a full member. Period. It is possible they could be part of a reloaded Pac or go Indy/Big West/WCC. They both are strong enough brands to make that work for a few years while things settle down. Wazzu & Oregon State are at the mercy of those around them. Neither has enough value on their own. They do however have enough shared value to be nice pieces in a new puzzle. I see all four schools (and potentially five if Utah gambles on this option) forming a core that either restocks as a much lesser league or merges with chosen remnants of the MWC to position themselves as the clear #5 overall league. These decisions may take days or could filter out over the next few weeks and even months. Once the fire sale is done, there won't urgency. And most signficantly the two academic elites will have to choose whether they want to be part of a real athletic conference or a group of lesser academic peers. Not sure which direction they will lean. Six months ago it would have been a no brainer. Today, not so much.
Potential Athletics-Driven Pac:
- Boise State
Cal
Colorado State
Fresno State
Memphis
Oregon State
San Diego State
Stanford
Washington State
UNLV
Potential Academics-Driven Pac:
- Cal
Oregon State
Rice
SMU
Stanford
Tulane
USF
Washington State
Mountain West:
The issue then becomes is there still a second western FBS league or just one big Pac/MW merger. I lean toward the idea that Cal & Stanford use their leverage to keep some of the riffraff out avoid a full merger. That would mean the MWC survives to live another day with a much depleted lineup. If it is full merger, I don't see much of any impact east of the Mississippi in this round of realignment. But if the MWC looks to reload, it could lead to some crazy combinations of schools aligning with each other. At that point, I could see the MWC attempting to become a national and not just a western league. They have to think about longterm viability and the status quo for them is dismal. Chasing small market midwestern schools like the Dakota States does nothing of significance. They will be chasing longterm partnerships that have upside. I suspect they will come hard for the military academies. Army & Navy would have MASSIVE leverage in what could emerge of a new league. Bringing the Commanders Cup under one banner is attractive. West Point has always wanted to have more control than the old CUSA offered them and this might be their opportunity. Such a move would be very fortuitous in Lynchburg. We are a free agent with resources who would be happy to slide into a national league. Is this likely? No. But if we were looking for a best case scenario, this might be it. Otherwise the MWC would likely replenish with some of the obvious regional options. They would most certainly have Texas State at the top of their wish list with UTEP a nice partner. I used to know the leadership in San Marcos back in the day and how they felt about western leagues. But my contacts have all gone away. But I honestly don't see Texas State being enthusiastic unless the academies were involved. No AAC teams wouldlikely be intrigued by a lateral move that would cost them a fortune in entry & exit fees. So the options would be limited in this space. NM State would only be brought in to even out numbers. With UNM and potentially UTEP, NMSU doesn't do much more than become a placeholder for the MWC.
AAC:
If the Pac chooses to go the academic route and raids the AAC hard with SMU, Rice, Tulane and potentially even USF & Tulsa, there will most certainly be significant movement into the AAC. if they go the athletic route and perhaps just take SMU, I see the AAC simply grabbing one school and stopping. Once again, Georgia State makes the most sense from the AAC perpective. But I am not convinced GSU would see it worth the effort to move. Texas State might be an option but the AAC already has nearby UTSA. Our primary competitiors remaining to fill any hole might be our current CUSA members: MTSU & WKU. If the AAC were taking three schools, we would likely be one of them IMHO. If they take one, MTSU fits the AAC profile better than we do and would likely accept. WKU wouldn't be a first choice for the AAC but they would likely acceptable.
--Fumble (1961-2009), RIP
- By aredd33
- By flamehunter