[LUOrange]

Immediately and obviously, everything begins again with the PAC and the B12. Most of the movement right now is out west and won't directly affect us. But I don't see the leftover PAC schools giving up Power/autonomy conference status. I see them taking the best of the MWC & western AAC. There's also some Twitter rumbling of FSU leaving the ACC pretty soon, and I don't see the ACC staying together for too much longer despite their GOR. If NB would return to the B12, that would definitely ignite more chaos. I'm thinking in the end, we end up in the AAC or an ACC that very reminiscent of the old Big East, which would be my preference.

[tyndal23]

Immediately and obviously, everything begins again with the PAC and the B12. Most of the movement right now is out west and won't directly affect us. But I don't see the leftover PAC schools giving up Power/autonomy conference status. I see them taking the best of the MWC & western AAC. There's also some Twitter rumbling of FSU leaving the ACC pretty soon, and I don't see the ACC staying together for too much longer despite their GOR. If NB would return to the B12, that would definitely ignite more chaos. I'm thinking in the end, we end up in the AAC or an ACC that very reminiscent of the old Big East, which would be my preference.

GOR isn’t breakable. Nebraska isn’t leaving. ACC might be able to pick up some of what Big 12 leaves behind of PAC, Wash ST, Oregon St.,Utah, etc. IF ESPN wants them to - expansion is better odds than attrition for ACC. Who is paying for FSU to leave? They don’t have the scratch and had to fight tooth and nail to get any facility upgrades from their boosters.

[Sly Fox]

Keep in mind that both the AAC & MWC have exceptionally high and lengthy exit penalties. Obviously those leagues know that the next step for their members is typically a P5 league where the economics work out.

It is also why you are unlikely to see members jumping between the AAC & MWC in spite of current online conjecture. The ROI on the exit fees doesn't add up.

This is why a free agent like us does have some value to both of those leagues. Do I think we are atop either's list of candidates right now? No. But we are most certainly not crazy talk for either league.

As mentioned above, Arizona is the first situation to watch closely. If they drop then it is possible they could be followed by a tidal wave of exits. It is not crazy talk that the Big XII could potentially poach Washington & Oregon by negotiating as exit clause for them to the B1G should they receive an offer down the road. Likely? Meh. Possible? Absolutely.

[tyndal23]

Keep in mind that both the AAC & MWC have exceptionally high and lengthy exit penalties. Obviously those leagues know that the next step for their members is typically a P5 league where the economics work out.

It is also why you are unlikely to see members jumping between the AAC & MWC in spite of current online conjecture. The ROI on the exit fees doesn't add up.

This is why a free agent like us does have some value to both of those leagues. Do I think we are atop either's list of candidates right now? No. But we are most certainly not crazy talk for either league.

As mentioned above, Arizona is the first situation to watch closely. If they drop then it is possible they could be followed by a tidal wave of exits. It is not crazy talk that the Big XII could potentially poach Washington & Oregon by negotiating as exit clause for them to the B1G should they receive an offer down the road. Likely? Meh. Possible? Absolutely.

Sly, now that you are excused from honey do lists for a bit - get to work on a list of SMU replacements if it’s falls that way...

[JK37]

Don’t assume that just because a conference loses a team they have to fill the spot.

[Sly Fox]

I agree, JK37.

But if they did start looking for options, history tells us they favor large TV markets that are not currently served by membership. Charlotte is a great example.

I would assume that Georgia State fits that profile more than any other school. But honestly I don't see the folks in the ATL being interested in the AAC.

They would love to poach some top MWC schools like Air Force, Colorado State or Boise State. But as mentioned earlier in the thread, economics makes that unlikely.

The coup de grace for AAC would be getting Army to join for CFP access. But again, that is not the draw for West Point that it was for us.

On the upside for the Flames, we fit nicely in the footprint and are financially solvent. We have also demonstrated an ability to compete at the AAC level. These factors alone put us in the conversation. The challenge for us is primarily around stigma and our lack of academic standing that will impress AAC member presidents.

[Ill flame]

I just looked up that MWC exit fee. I assumed it was equal to a one year payout ($6-8 million range) like most conferences, I had no clue its $17 million! That really is a gamechanger that will likely be a non starter for any moves between AAC and MWC.

If markets are really all that matters to the AAC Georgia state is the obvious next target. I've heard they told the AAC during the last round of realignment they weren't interested because they weren't ready to spend that kind of money yet among other reasons. Im not sure if theres some truth to that or if it's just copium from fans/ administrators.

If Memphis leaves it wouldnt shock me to see AAC grab MTSU for that Nashville market. Beyond that it is very slim pickings for tv markets unless they start looking at MAC schools. If two teams from AAC get poached it seems most likely they won't backfill at all, if only one leaves it puts them in an awkward spot with an odd number of teams. There's a ton of ifs here but its fun to speculate.

[tyndal23]

Don’t assume that just because a conference loses a team they have to fill the spot.

Name the last uneven numbered Football Conference - never mind - PAC 9

[tyndal23]

Wait - I completely forgot my argument from a year ago about benefits of 9 member round robin CUSA and 4 non con vs a 10 team and altered schedule - how easily I forget anything related to CUSA...

[tyndal23]

I just looked up that MWC exit fee. I assumed it was equal to a one year payout ($6-8 million range) like most conferences, I had no clue its $17 million! That really is a gamechanger that will likely be a non starter for any moves between AAC and MWC.

If markets are really all that matters to the AAC Georgia state is the obvious next target. I've heard they told the AAC during the last round of realignment they weren't interested because they weren't ready to spend that kind of money yet among other reasons. Im not sure if theres some truth to that or if it's just copium from fans/ administrators.

If Memphis leaves it wouldnt shock me to see AAC grab MTSU for that Nashville market. Beyond that it is very slim pickings for tv markets unless they start looking at MAC schools. If two teams from AAC get poached it seems most likely they won't backfill at all, if only one leaves it puts them in an awkward spot with an odd number of teams. There's a ton of ifs here but its fun to speculate.

So in that long shot scenario, should LU pay a little $ to leapfrog or should we get bypassed by an MTSU? If the answer is NO, what is our 50 year plan exactly? Pay our head coach $ 4 million to recoup $800k from a tv deal ?

[Baldspot53]

Chris Vannini is reporting perhaps the biggest threat to PAC 12 existence is timing. Schools can leave in 2024 but due to exit fees, MWC teams realistically cannot join until 2025. Remember SDSU’s exit fee jumped to $34 million June 30th. Will the PAC be forced to look elsewhere?

[Sly Fox]

The NCAA grants a coupleof years of grace period to be out of compliance while newcomers arrive. They even allegedly extended it for the WAC when they were trying to maintain FBS status. So the Pac is not under threat from that realm.

In fact, if no one else bolts from their current nine then they likely add only one one other addition (aka SDSU) and they ride out the storm.

Sadly for them that is not likely the case. Additional losses are inevitable without a viable TV contract. The question becomes when these moves could go down. Theoretically with no Pac-12 exit fees and an expiring TV contract next summer, the exiting Pac schools have flexibiity. The Buffs plan on being full members of the Big XII next summer.

[Ill flame]

I just looked up that MWC exit fee. I assumed it was equal to a one year payout ($6-8 million range) like most conferences, I had no clue its $17 million! That really is a gamechanger that will likely be a non starter for any moves between AAC and MWC.

If markets are really all that matters to the AAC Georgia state is the obvious next target. I've heard they told the AAC during the last round of realignment they weren't interested because they weren't ready to spend that kind of money yet among other reasons. Im not sure if theres some truth to that or if it's just copium from fans/ administrators.

If Memphis leaves it wouldnt shock me to see AAC grab MTSU for that Nashville market. Beyond that it is very slim pickings for tv markets unless they start looking at MAC schools. If two teams from AAC get poached it seems most likely they won't backfill at all, if only one leaves it puts them in an awkward spot with an odd number of teams. There's a ton of ifs here but its fun to speculate.

So in that long shot scenario, should LU pay a little $ to leapfrog or should we get bypassed by an MTSU? If the answer is NO, what is our 50 year plan exactly? Pay our head coach $ 4 million to recoup $800k from a tv deal ?

Memphis won't be the first team poached from the AAC and if Memphis is still in the conference I highly doubt they would want another in state school in the conference. I don't think we'll find ourselves in a situation where we'll need to bypass MTSU. If AAC is in a situation where they are adding MTSU, they'll probably be looking to add more than one team. My 50 year plan is to keep playing musical chairs until we find a nice comfortable recliner we can take a nap in for awhile without paying millions of dollars for the privilege.

[tyndal23]

I just looked up that MWC exit fee. I assumed it was equal to a one year payout ($6-8 million range) like most conferences, I had no clue its $17 million! That really is a gamechanger that will likely be a non starter for any moves between AAC and MWC.

If markets are really all that matters to the AAC Georgia state is the obvious next target. I've heard they told the AAC during the last round of realignment they weren't interested because they weren't ready to spend that kind of money yet among other reasons. Im not sure if theres some truth to that or if it's just copium from fans/ administrators.

If Memphis leaves it wouldnt shock me to see AAC grab MTSU for that Nashville market. Beyond that it is very slim pickings for tv markets unless they start looking at MAC schools. If two teams from AAC get poached it seems most likely they won't backfill at all, if only one leaves it puts them in an awkward spot with an odd number of teams. There's a ton of ifs here but its fun to speculate.

So in that long shot scenario, should LU pay a little $ to leapfrog or should we get bypassed by an MTSU? If the answer is NO, what is our 50 year plan exactly? Pay our head coach $ 4 million to recoup $800k from a tv deal ?

Memphis won't be the first team poached from the AAC and if Memphis is still in the conference I highly doubt they would want another in state school in the conference. I don't think we'll find ourselves in a situation where we'll need to bypass MTSU. If AAC is in a situation where they are adding MTSU, they'll probably be looking to add more than one team. My 50 year plan is to keep playing musical chairs until we find a nice comfortable recliner we can take a nap in for awhile without paying millions of dollars for the privilege.

Ha - well CUSA is the best nap there is. Never been less excited about a season.

[LUOrange]

So in that long shot scenario, should LU pay a little $ to leapfrog or should we get bypassed by an MTSU? If the answer is NO, what is our 50 year plan exactly? Pay our head coach $ 4 million to recoup $800k from a tv deal ?

Memphis won't be the first team poached from the AAC and if Memphis is still in the conference I highly doubt they would want another in state school in the conference. I don't think we'll find ourselves in a situation where we'll need to bypass MTSU. If AAC is in a situation where they are adding MTSU, they'll probably be looking to add more than one team. My 50 year plan is to keep playing musical chairs until we find a nice comfortable recliner we can take a nap in for awhile without paying millions of dollars for the privilege.

Ha - well CUSA is the best nap there is. Never been less excited about a season.

I mostly agree with your excitement because of the midweek (Tuesday specifically) home games.

[Ill flame]

Ha - well CUSA is the best nap there is. Never been less excited about a season.

Personally I found independence to be more of a snooze fest. No matter how many games we won we were destined for the cure bowl (or equivalent) against another G5 with games against mediocre P5s as the pinnacle of our season. At least this year if we run the table we have a very good shot at a NY6 bowl against one of the best P5s in the country and if we don't we can still settle for a conference championship. Every game has actual implications for once.

[tyndal23]

Ha - well CUSA is the best nap there is. Never been less excited about a season.

Personally I found independence to be more of a snooze fest. No matter how many games we won we were destined for the cure bowl (or equivalent) against another G5 with games against mediocre P5s as the pinnacle of our season. At least this year if we run the table we have a very good shot at a NY6 bowl against one of the best P5s in the country and if we don't we can still settle for a conference championship. Every game has actual implications for once.

True. Our 23 & 24 Independent schedules ended up being pretty lame - 25 and beyond were exciting. Anxious to see what game we add for 25 now that ETSU got bumped. As for the weeknight games - I actually like it -if your going to have the worst schedule in the worst conference - might as well play it where many more people will casually watch and it frees up Saturdays for other good games to watch. I casually watch MAC games just because they are on when no other games are. I still never remember a week later who the MAC champ is. As for CFP - we are probably screwed after 25 the “ 6 Conference” auto bid is very much in jeopardy - that was only agreed to for 2 years - now that PAC is imploding - no way BIG and SEC sign on to that. G5 saving grace may be fear of lawsuit if they don’t carve out 1 slot for G5. Ironically - PAC was a driving force not signing off on 6 Conference champ theory beyond that date ( idiots ).

[Ill flame]

I've been seeing reports that arizona plans to move to pac 12 by Tuesday. None of them are from reputable sources though. If pac 12 backfills with SDSU, SMU and boise state you could make a strong argument they will be a better football conference than if Colorado and Arizona stuck around.

[Sly Fox]

Speculation is that not only is Zonalikely to jump this week, there is renewed buzz that ASU might be coming with them.

ESPN supposedly will pay pro rata for up to three more P5 additions beyond the Buffs. ASU may be hoping to jump in while
they can with Washington & Oregon likely wanting to negotiate a deal to land in Big XII while they wait on a possible call from B1G.

[JK37]

Doesn’t FOX have a big part of the Pac12 deal? Seems like this is ESPN’s back door way to grab more of college football and screw PAC in process. Not that I care - GO CAPITALISM! - but just seems for some reason ESPN is in no mood to do the PAC any favors

[Sly Fox]

Fox only has pro rata slots available for two schools and Colorado already snatched one of them. Noone expects Fox to stop any Pac schools from joining the Big XII.

[Sly Fox]

For those followingalong, the Pac-12 commish finally presented the primary piece of the media deal he has been working on unsuccessfully for a year. It is headlined by a subscription-based Apple+ deal that would sliders for compensation based on number of subs who sign up. They could potentially sub-lease games under the contract so people could actually see the games. But to say that this is a disappointing turn of events for Pac-12 schools wanting to stick together would be understatement.


In essence, sign a media deal with grant of rights and your compensation could be anywhere from $10M/yr to $50M/yr depdending on how well you get your fans to sign up for subscriptions to Apple+. Administrators like hard numbers. This is the opposite of hard numbers.

While it make take days,weeks or even months, it is clear that the goose is cooked for the Pac-12. It is likely the remaining four corners schools (Arizona, Arizona State & Utah) will likely come en masse. It could also mean that Washington & Oregon throw up their hands as well and either dive in with sure fire Big XII stability and compensation or get creative with more uncertainty with locked-in ACC.

[tyndal23]

For those followingalong, the Pac-12 commish finally presented the primary piece of the media deal he has been working on unsuccessfully for a year. It is headlined by a subscription-based Apple+ deal that would sliders for compensation based on number of subs who sign up. They could potentially sub-lease games under the contract so people could actually see the games. But to say that this is a disappointing turn of events for Pac-12 schools wanting to stick together would be understatement.


In essence, sign a media deal with grant of rights and your compensation could be anywhere from $10M/yr to $50M/yr depdending on how well you get your fans to sign up for subscriptions to Apple+. Administrators like hard numbers. This is the opposite of hard numbers.

While it make take days,weeks or even months, it is clear that the goose is cooked for the Pac-12. It is likely the remaining four corners schools (Arizona, Arizona State & Utah) will likely come en masse. It could also mean that Washington & Oregon throw up their hands as well and either dive in with sure fire Big XII stability and compensation or get creative with more uncertainty with locked-in ACC.

Sly, you don’t think Big would take WA,OR ? I think Stanford is their main target to appeal to ND if numbers don’t come in solid from NBC renewal. I just have a hard time seeing OR,WA being left in the cold from the BIG. I could see a half share type structure for a period of time that is a win for BIG and those teams. Cal would come with as a 4 team expansion to BIG if ND is for sure out of play. I still see possibility of Independence ( or at least announcement of Independence ) if the timeline isn’t perfect for any of those 4 with hopes of getting in the BIG soon vs giving away GOR for long term.

[Sly Fox]

The only way UDub & Oregon get into the B1G will be on a discount for a decade until the ACC GoR expires. It is lookingess andless like that will occur.Kevin Warren was apparently their cheerleader with the presidents and he is gone.

[TH Spangler]

I'm reading all over, Clemson and FSU to the B1G very soon?