- December 11th, 2021, 11:53 am
#637281
Like many of you, I have been astonished by the population changes during the pandemic. I live in rural Texas and have seen a flood of New Yorkers and Calfornians buying up every house and building thousand sof new ones around my little community over the past twelve months. Obviously moving away from places like NYC, LA & SF as we move to more remote work is the big driver.
But even before the pandemic, we are a nation were making some pretty incredible population shifts. The 2020 Census has revealed some incredible changes over the past decade since the 2010 Census. While many of the MSAs saw slight to minimal growth in the past decade, there were some that saw explosive growth:
4. Dallas-Fort Worth +19.96
The DFW Metroplex was the ebenficiary of a bunch of major corporations moving their headquarters from states like Illinois and Ohio. It also benefited from the elevation of the energy industry over that decade. Technology growth has been surprisingly strong in light of TI's poor decade.
5. Houston +20.30
I am obviously very familiar ith the growth drivers her in my hometown. While the space industry was hammered by the Obama Administration, energy became a massive driver of growth. In addition to oil & gas that everyone that attracts the most attention, public utilities also has generated a ton of growth. In the past few years the city has also become a haven for Cali companies seeking markets with tons of talented engineers.
6. Washington DC-NOVA-MD +13.02%
The bigger the government the more growth for the area. The growth is expected to continue at a more rapid rate with Amazon's HQ2 generated direct jobs and all of the ancillary work that spills off of it. See Seattle.
9. Atlanta +15.19%
All of that marketing for being the Capital of the New South has proven to be legit. In addition to massive industries in aviation and logistics, the city has proven to be a strong incubator for new tech economies.
11. Phoenix +15.57%
It is not just a retirement center any more. The business-friendly environment has proven to be a boon for comapnies looking to find a warm weather location for manufacturing and technology. The downside is that clean mountain air that drove so many to retire to the area is long gone.
15. Seattle-Tacoma +16.83%
Over the past decade Amazon went from a cool e-commerce business into the biggest tech company on the planet. That drove massive growth into Seattle while Redmond was doing just fine with Microsoft. Watch for the growth to slow down a bit as Amazon's battles with the city leadership are leading to massive growth in places like Boston, DC, Nashville & Austin in the next decade.
18. Tampa-St. Pete +14.49%
The business friendly environment of Florida has benefited all fo the major cities including Miami & Jax. But Tampa-St Pete seems to be leveraging the shift of Rust Belt evacuee companies better than most. It remains a massive retirement mecca like Phoenix. But the Bay Area seems to be really seizing upon the new economy opportunities.
19. Denver +16.53%
A rare cold weather location seems a boom in growth. If you listen to the locals, the big drivers are oil & gas as well as Californian taxes. One way or the other, Denver has gone from a cool city at the front range of the Rockies to full-on urban sprawl in just a couple of decades. Let the record show that the mounatins remain just as cool as ever.
22. Orlando +25.25%
The middle of the Sunshine State experienced the 3rd most explosive growth along the Top 100 markets over the past decade. While retirees are obviously a contributing factor, the city's growth is also built on manufacturing, techonology and financial services. There also is the Magical factor that attracts Yankees.
23. Charlotte +18.56%
This comes as know surprise to the Carolinians on the board. few cities have leveraged their culture and financial services industries as well as the CLT. Being in a business-friendly state certainly has led to jobs being pushed south from the Midwest & New England.
24. San Antonio +19.40%
The once sleepy military mecca in South Texas has seen a spill over from its neighbor to the north resulting in a technology, logistics & manufacturing boom. Once among the poorest economically of the major cities in the nation, its fortunates have changed dramatically over the past couple of decades. And it is primed for even more significiant growth moving forward.
Just outside the Top 25 comes what are not only the fastest growing cities of the last decade but like up through 2030. Here the cities with 20%+ growth:
28. Austin +33.04%
Curious why the growth in the Silicon Valley/Bay Area has been relatively weak? Look no further than Central Texas. Californian companies fleeing the taxation back on the Left Coast are moving in droves to the Capital of Texas. Tesla & Cisco have moved their HQs already to the area and Apple's largest campus outside of Cupertino is in Austin. Tesla is not only moving its HQ but also its new gigafactory to build the new Tesla trucks to town. Samsung is also building another major manufacturing site in the city that will bring well over 10k high paying jobs to the area. Business-friendly and tech savvy.
36. Nashville +20.86%
The country music & hot chicken culture hasn't gone anywhere. But the tech economy is now booming in the Music City. Once again, a business-friendly state is reaping the rewards of the Rust Belt oppression. Amazon has just built new Ops HQ across the street from the Ryman. It is essentially their HQ3.
42. Research Triangle 25.08%
Once again, tech and research are the big drivers. The ability to turn so quickly away from Big Tobacco into Big Research is exceptionally impressive.
74. Charleston, SC +20.32%
The Charleston mystique is seeing spillover over in the business community. Living in Charleston sounds romantic and their economic development commission is banking off of it.
77. Boise +24.03%
The Californian exodus is not limited to Texas & Colorado. Idahoans are being overwhelmed by Calis seizing upon the awesome Boise lifestyle. Some of you may have had little to no exposure of Idaho. But suffice it to say it is ridiculously blessed with beauty and hip vibe.
78. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL +22.96%
No place has benefited more from the oversaturation of Tampa-St Pte & Orlando than SW Florida. It has become the new destination of choice for retirees and businesses benefiting from all that disposable income.
81. Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL +20.42%
Snowbirds! Snowbirds! Snowbirds! Oh yeah, it has become a logistics hub for Florida.
89. Provo-Orem +27.41%
The secret is out. The Mormons have one of the coolest places to live in America. It is also the northern gateway to the Mighty 5 National Parks. It is used to just be a bedroom community for SLC. Not any more.
In summary, the largest apparent drivers in growth are heading south and to the Rockies. Business-friendly states like Texas, Florida & North Carolina are reaping the benefits of the oppressive environments of the Rust Belt, New England & California. Obviously tech is a massive driver of growth and the markets that are primed to benefit moving forward in the new economy are likely to continue to benefit. Past-pandemic, I suspect the numbers in California & NY in particular are going to be even more stark.
Where do you see you and your family moving in coming decade?
But even before the pandemic, we are a nation were making some pretty incredible population shifts. The 2020 Census has revealed some incredible changes over the past decade since the 2010 Census. While many of the MSAs saw slight to minimal growth in the past decade, there were some that saw explosive growth:
4. Dallas-Fort Worth +19.96
The DFW Metroplex was the ebenficiary of a bunch of major corporations moving their headquarters from states like Illinois and Ohio. It also benefited from the elevation of the energy industry over that decade. Technology growth has been surprisingly strong in light of TI's poor decade.
5. Houston +20.30
I am obviously very familiar ith the growth drivers her in my hometown. While the space industry was hammered by the Obama Administration, energy became a massive driver of growth. In addition to oil & gas that everyone that attracts the most attention, public utilities also has generated a ton of growth. In the past few years the city has also become a haven for Cali companies seeking markets with tons of talented engineers.
6. Washington DC-NOVA-MD +13.02%
The bigger the government the more growth for the area. The growth is expected to continue at a more rapid rate with Amazon's HQ2 generated direct jobs and all of the ancillary work that spills off of it. See Seattle.
9. Atlanta +15.19%
All of that marketing for being the Capital of the New South has proven to be legit. In addition to massive industries in aviation and logistics, the city has proven to be a strong incubator for new tech economies.
11. Phoenix +15.57%
It is not just a retirement center any more. The business-friendly environment has proven to be a boon for comapnies looking to find a warm weather location for manufacturing and technology. The downside is that clean mountain air that drove so many to retire to the area is long gone.
15. Seattle-Tacoma +16.83%
Over the past decade Amazon went from a cool e-commerce business into the biggest tech company on the planet. That drove massive growth into Seattle while Redmond was doing just fine with Microsoft. Watch for the growth to slow down a bit as Amazon's battles with the city leadership are leading to massive growth in places like Boston, DC, Nashville & Austin in the next decade.
18. Tampa-St. Pete +14.49%
The business friendly environment of Florida has benefited all fo the major cities including Miami & Jax. But Tampa-St Pete seems to be leveraging the shift of Rust Belt evacuee companies better than most. It remains a massive retirement mecca like Phoenix. But the Bay Area seems to be really seizing upon the new economy opportunities.
19. Denver +16.53%
A rare cold weather location seems a boom in growth. If you listen to the locals, the big drivers are oil & gas as well as Californian taxes. One way or the other, Denver has gone from a cool city at the front range of the Rockies to full-on urban sprawl in just a couple of decades. Let the record show that the mounatins remain just as cool as ever.
22. Orlando +25.25%
The middle of the Sunshine State experienced the 3rd most explosive growth along the Top 100 markets over the past decade. While retirees are obviously a contributing factor, the city's growth is also built on manufacturing, techonology and financial services. There also is the Magical factor that attracts Yankees.
23. Charlotte +18.56%
This comes as know surprise to the Carolinians on the board. few cities have leveraged their culture and financial services industries as well as the CLT. Being in a business-friendly state certainly has led to jobs being pushed south from the Midwest & New England.
24. San Antonio +19.40%
The once sleepy military mecca in South Texas has seen a spill over from its neighbor to the north resulting in a technology, logistics & manufacturing boom. Once among the poorest economically of the major cities in the nation, its fortunates have changed dramatically over the past couple of decades. And it is primed for even more significiant growth moving forward.
Just outside the Top 25 comes what are not only the fastest growing cities of the last decade but like up through 2030. Here the cities with 20%+ growth:
28. Austin +33.04%
Curious why the growth in the Silicon Valley/Bay Area has been relatively weak? Look no further than Central Texas. Californian companies fleeing the taxation back on the Left Coast are moving in droves to the Capital of Texas. Tesla & Cisco have moved their HQs already to the area and Apple's largest campus outside of Cupertino is in Austin. Tesla is not only moving its HQ but also its new gigafactory to build the new Tesla trucks to town. Samsung is also building another major manufacturing site in the city that will bring well over 10k high paying jobs to the area. Business-friendly and tech savvy.
36. Nashville +20.86%
The country music & hot chicken culture hasn't gone anywhere. But the tech economy is now booming in the Music City. Once again, a business-friendly state is reaping the rewards of the Rust Belt oppression. Amazon has just built new Ops HQ across the street from the Ryman. It is essentially their HQ3.
42. Research Triangle 25.08%
Once again, tech and research are the big drivers. The ability to turn so quickly away from Big Tobacco into Big Research is exceptionally impressive.
74. Charleston, SC +20.32%
The Charleston mystique is seeing spillover over in the business community. Living in Charleston sounds romantic and their economic development commission is banking off of it.
77. Boise +24.03%
The Californian exodus is not limited to Texas & Colorado. Idahoans are being overwhelmed by Calis seizing upon the awesome Boise lifestyle. Some of you may have had little to no exposure of Idaho. But suffice it to say it is ridiculously blessed with beauty and hip vibe.
78. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL +22.96%
No place has benefited more from the oversaturation of Tampa-St Pte & Orlando than SW Florida. It has become the new destination of choice for retirees and businesses benefiting from all that disposable income.
81. Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL +20.42%
Snowbirds! Snowbirds! Snowbirds! Oh yeah, it has become a logistics hub for Florida.
89. Provo-Orem +27.41%
The secret is out. The Mormons have one of the coolest places to live in America. It is also the northern gateway to the Mighty 5 National Parks. It is used to just be a bedroom community for SLC. Not any more.
In summary, the largest apparent drivers in growth are heading south and to the Rockies. Business-friendly states like Texas, Florida & North Carolina are reaping the benefits of the oppressive environments of the Rust Belt, New England & California. Obviously tech is a massive driver of growth and the markets that are primed to benefit moving forward in the new economy are likely to continue to benefit. Past-pandemic, I suspect the numbers in California & NY in particular are going to be even more stark.
Where do you see you and your family moving in coming decade?