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Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke

By rogers3
Registration Days Posts
#598112
SumItUp wrote: March 21st, 2020, 12:09 pm https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... tores-open
President Trump, moving with haste to slow the spread of the coronavirus, is preparing a plan to mobilize the National Guard to help enforce a two-week quarantine of the public if his tough-love efforts so far fail.

The unprecedented action would require everyone to “stay at home,” according to a source knowledgeable of the evolving plan.
"Stay at home"means essential travel only. The list of what is essential includes dog food, so my weinerdog and pit bull are good to go. As is my business...if people need my
services.
#598113
SumItUp wrote: March 21st, 2020, 12:09 pm https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... tores-open
President Trump, moving with haste to slow the spread of the coronavirus, is preparing a plan to mobilize the National Guard to help enforce a two-week quarantine of the public if his tough-love efforts so far fail.

The unprecedented action would require everyone to “stay at home,” according to a source knowledgeable of the evolving plan.
This rumor has been circulating over the last week, so much so that the NSC has tweeted twice saying it’s fake.
#598114
SumItUp wrote: March 21st, 2020, 12:09 pm https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... tores-open
President Trump, moving with haste to slow the spread of the coronavirus, is preparing a plan to mobilize the National Guard to help enforce a two-week quarantine of the public if his tough-love efforts so far fail.

The unprecedented action would require everyone to “stay at home,” according to a source knowledgeable of the evolving plan.
The WH has been out debunking that all morning
#598117
Interesting that Pence keeps saying we are on Day 6 of 15..... And keeps holding up the 15 day “quarantine” plan. That gives me hope that after day 15 they will start getting things back to normal
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#598124
On the topic of when we’re out of the woods.

Social distancing and isolation are pretty effective especially with the sanitizer frenzy. I’m really curious how regular flu, strep, and other communicable diseases are faring right now.

I think we will see the total cases level off and I really think both the alarmists and skeptics will take credit but both are probably right.

It likely isn’t nearly as bad as the worst case scenario. Skeptics victory!

Social distancing worked like a charm preventing the spread. Alarmist victory!

The real winners are the immunocompromised and elderly.
#598126
Purple Haize wrote: March 21st, 2020, 1:25 pm Interesting that Pence keeps saying we are on Day 6 of 15..... And keeps holding up the 15 day “quarantine” plan. That gives me hope that after day 15 they will start getting things back to normal
I hope he’s right. I don’t think he will be based on the things I’ve read. March 30th seems quite early compared to the forecasts by most experts.
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#598127
I don't think Pence ever stated that this would be over in 15 days. There was a suggested protocol to follow for 15 days and the status would be reevaluated. I agree with Adam that we are unlikely to be in the clear when the calendar turns to April.

I do think there are good things taking place from a supply chain perspective. The critics of the federal government don't understand how difficult and slow the process normally is.
#598128
adam42381 wrote: March 21st, 2020, 6:25 pm
Purple Haize wrote: March 21st, 2020, 1:25 pm Interesting that Pence keeps saying we are on Day 6 of 15..... And keeps holding up the 15 day “quarantine” plan. That gives me hope that after day 15 they will start getting things back to normal
I hope he’s right. I don’t think he will be based on the things I’ve read. March 30th seems quite early compared to the forecasts by most experts.
Medically or economically? Medically it should be on the downslope. Even though there may be more cases diagnosed you are seeing people still getting tested. The real measure will be hospitalizations and deaths. And we aren’t seeing those in the numbers remotely close to what we were told to expect.
#598129
SumItUp wrote: March 21st, 2020, 6:31 pm I don't think Pence ever stated that this would be over in 15 days. There was a suggested protocol to follow for 15 days and the status would be reevaluated. I agree with Adam that we are unlikely to be in the clear when the calendar turns to April.

I do think there are good things taking place from a supply chain perspective. The critics of the federal government don't understand how difficult and slow the process normally is.
My statement was that Pence kept bringing it up. That tells me that’s the target date they are shooting for to move things forward. I’m optimistic that we will be trending in the right direction
#598131
thepostman wrote: March 21st, 2020, 6:53 pm It isn't a target date. It is the day that set of guidelines ends which will lead us to the next phase of this. What that will look like is anybodies guess at this point.
We are saying the same thing. I’m just saying that is the target date that the Administration is going to start turning things around because things will be turning around across America. People will have had enough of quarantine. Death rates and critical hospitalizations won’t materialize anywhere near the dire predictions. By the Fall the economy will have rebounded and we should be humming. Although saddled with another Trillion or so in debt. But that’s another topic
#598135
PH, how do you define turning things around (medically speaking)? What metrics will show that it has turned? Every prediction that I have seen for peak infections are still 30 days out. Is it possible to turn things around before the peak has been reached?
#598136
SumItUp wrote: March 21st, 2020, 9:17 pm PH, how do you define turning things around (medically speaking)? What metrics will show that it has turned? Every prediction that I have seen for peak infections are still 30 days out. Is it possible to turn things around before the peak has been reached?
I explained how. If we don’t see the mass deaths and critical hospitalization that the doomsayers have predicted. 10 days ago we were 10 days from overwhelmed hospitals. A little over a week ago we were told we were 2 weeks away from experiencing what Italy was/is going through. We have heard these dire predictions for a bit now. When they fault to materialize we will have a firm date to say “Ok, we’ve quarantined for 15 days like the experts have recommended so let’s start moving on”. I’m sure there will be restrictions recommended for those still at risk. People will be encouraged to continue to social distance but also start trying to return to normal
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#598137
My understanding is that the infectious disease experts look at things in two week increments. They make suggestions then two weeks later evaluate those suggestions and then figure out what’s next.

I will be shocked if they don’t continue current protocols for the following two weeks when the current two weeks ends.
#598138
Jonathan Carone wrote: March 21st, 2020, 10:02 pm My understanding is that the infectious disease experts look at things in two week increments. They make suggestions then two weeks later evaluate those suggestions and then figure out what’s next.

I will be shocked if they don’t continue current protocols for the following two weeks when the current two weeks ends.
That’s true. I could see them putting another 2 weeks “pause” on things like they have now. I can’t see them adding any other restrictions though. Once the Country can get a good idea when this will be “over” things will start to turn around psychologically and economically
#598142
The national lockdown rumor was told to me yesterday by someone who has a business here in Lynchburg. It went like this...
"I was told by so and so, who was told by Jerry, who was told by Trump."
I weigh the validity at about 50%, but the message had nothing to do with the national guard and everything to do with a national shelter in place call based on CDC recommendations. It seems that states are taking a larger role in this but to have a federal guideline that normalizes such a regimen makes sense to me.
#598144
I've heard the rumor from 3-4 different people, and they all got it from "someone they trust" who would know. One guy said he heard it from someone with defense contracts. Another who's coworker's husband works in the government. All some form or another.
#598145
rogers3 wrote: March 22nd, 2020, 9:43 am The national lockdown rumor was told to me yesterday by someone who has a business here in Lynchburg. It went like this...
"I was told by so and so, who was told by Jerry, who was told by Trump."
I weigh the validity at about 50%, but the message had nothing to do with the national guard and everything to do with a national shelter in place call based on CDC recommendations. It seems that states are taking a larger role in this but to have a federal guideline that normalizes such a regimen makes sense to me.
I’ve been hearing this since Tuesday. I acted on it to the extent I got some more eggs bacon and ground beef because the person who told me was about 75% sure. As more States started cracking down that confidence number went down
#598146
In his last news conference Trump made it about as clear as you can that there are no current plans for a nationwide shutdown and they will continue to do that on a state and local basis. The problem is simply so different from place to place that a one size fits all response is not the way to go.
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