[willflop]

OK, but the analytics provided earlier say that even the decision to do it was poor, given the field position.

At first, I was the same: fine with decision, disappointed in play call. But given the field position and the lack of faith in the D, I really can’t come up with a logical reason for going, even with a better play call (run).

The analytics I provided did not say this, unless you are referencing something else. It argued that going for it on 4th and 1 has more expected value than punting, though it's close, even from your own 9 yard line. The article also points out that the EV changes based on your team, since this is an average. To the degree that your offense is good, defense weak, and special teams are bad, the more expected value you get in going for it (that's Liberty).

My point in bringing it up is that it's being portrayed as rediculous, not just a close debatable call, when objectively it is not rediculous, but statistically better. It's unconventional and goes against the tradition of coaching strategy, so it seems to get a bad wrap without any facts to back it.

[Dalegarz1]

JK37 wrote: I recall the 4th Down call at Army that got me so upset. It’s like the offensive staff is randomly trying to utilize BYD’s 4th Down analytics, but they’re doing so in the worst possible circumstantial applications.


Just for the record, it was a third and 12 that got everybody upset.

[CCWMichael]

Let’s look at the scenario of a 4th and 1 at the offense’s own 9 yard line (the worst possible field position at which this can occur). Simplifying things, there are 3 potential outcomes.

– Punting, which we will assume results in the opposing team taking possession at the 50 yard line (41 yard kick).

– Going for it and converting. Here, to keep things easy, we’ll assume the offense gains just 1 yard, the minimum needed to gain a 1st down.

– Going for it and failing, the result of which gives the opposing team the ball at the 9 yard line.

Applying the success rate and expected points we saw above, we come to the following values for each scenario:

– Punting is worth -2.04 points, which is the expected value of a 1st down at the 50 yard line (for the other team, hence the negative).

– Going for it and gaining 1 yard is worth -0.21 points, which is the value of a 1st down at the 10 yard line. However, this only has a 66.5% chance of happening, which we’ll adjust for in a moment.

– Going for it and failing is worth -4.83 points, which is the value of a 1st down for the OTHER team at the 9 yard line.

Using the 66.5%/33.5% success odds, we can calculate the expected value of going for it, that is the expected value WITHOUT KNOWING if you will succeed or fail.

Converting: -0.21 * .665 = -0.14

Failing: -4.83 * .335 = -1.62

Combined: -1.62 + -0.14 = -1.76

See why that’s a big deal?

Given a 4th and 1 at your own 9 yard line, an average punt is “worth” -2.04 points, while going for it (with average success) is “worth” -1.76.

Going for it is worth 0.28 points MORE than punting.

https://eaglesrewind-com.cdn.ampproject ... h-and-1%2F

Man, fantastic stuff.
I question if NFL statistics correlate with collegiate talent?

[willflop]

Let’s look at the scenario of a 4th and 1 at the offense’s own 9 yard line (the worst possible field position at which this can occur). Simplifying things, there are 3 potential outcomes.

– Punting, which we will assume results in the opposing team taking possession at the 50 yard line (41 yard kick).

– Going for it and converting. Here, to keep things easy, we’ll assume the offense gains just 1 yard, the minimum needed to gain a 1st down.

– Going for it and failing, the result of which gives the opposing team the ball at the 9 yard line.

Applying the success rate and expected points we saw above, we come to the following values for each scenario:

– Punting is worth -2.04 points, which is the expected value of a 1st down at the 50 yard line (for the other team, hence the negative).

– Going for it and gaining 1 yard is worth -0.21 points, which is the value of a 1st down at the 10 yard line. However, this only has a 66.5% chance of happening, which we’ll adjust for in a moment.

– Going for it and failing is worth -4.83 points, which is the value of a 1st down for the OTHER team at the 9 yard line.

Using the 66.5%/33.5% success odds, we can calculate the expected value of going for it, that is the expected value WITHOUT KNOWING if you will succeed or fail.

Converting: -0.21 * .665 = -0.14

Failing: -4.83 * .335 = -1.62

Combined: -1.62 + -0.14 = -1.76

See why that’s a big deal?

Given a 4th and 1 at your own 9 yard line, an average punt is “worth” -2.04 points, while going for it (with average success) is “worth” -1.76.

Going for it is worth 0.28 points MORE than punting.

https://eaglesrewind-com.cdn.ampproject ... h-and-1%2F

Man, fantastic stuff.
I question if NFL statistics correlate with collegiate talent?

Yea, I am not sure how different it is, but I think the principle is the same and you'd have to adapt it to a given team anyway. Over the last 5 years (including current season), liberty is 60/96 (63%) in fourth down conversions. This includes all the 4th and 5s, 10s, or 15s from desperation, so if you could limit it to just 4th an 1s, I'd guess it'd be a lot higher. Either way, it's similar to the 65% the above quote assumes.

I'd speculate that this principle is even more applicable to college, since there can be more extreme talent disparities between teams, or even on the same team in terms of offensive vs. defensive vs. special teams talent. NFL, for the most part, seems to be more well rounded. They don't often have to consider whether their punter will only get it 9 yards, or if they can make a 30 yard field goal.

[FLAMEfromBAMA]

Bill Clark

106-11 as High School Coach

4 Years as DCO at South Alabama as they transitioned to FBS.

1 Season as JSU Head Coach. During his only season as head coach at Jacksonville State, Clark led the Gamecocks to their first playoff victories, 49 school records, 13 OVC records and three NCAA records.

Currently in 2nd Season at UAB. Led them to first bowl game in years in ‘15, led them through a bunch of crap to reestablish program in ‘16, and currently sits second in the the C-USA at 4-2.

Only 49 Years Old, has been successful at every stop. Has transition to FBS experience. Recruiting ties to much of southeast. Has FCS & FBS HC experience. Is a Christian. Clean record, Family Man, Defensive Minded yet none of his programs have been offensively inept.


May not be a huge name to average cfb fans, but his name is a lot more well known that you’d think. Unless Ian really thinks he has a shot at a coach that is a top
candidate for P5 schools, which maybe we do, this would be a really solid move IMO.

I stand by this. Coach Clark was my high school coach, has never “failed” at any level, and is on the way to possible coach of the year honors. I talked with JB in 2011 about him when he was still at USA, but Gill was chosen instead. I’ve said it all along I love Gill as a man, and I actually am satisfied with our record this year, but still wish we could get Clark. I’m sure things have changed a lot since then (Head coach at UAB >Coordinator at transitioning USA), but at that time Clark actually told me he would be “very interested” in the position. IF we don’t stick with Gill after next season I’d still take Clark over Freeze, Briles, etc. I’ll continue to float his name here and on social media until I legitimately see my dream die.

[JK37]

I misread the analytics. So I am in favor of the call.

I disagree vehemently that analytics killed sports. I agree completely that sport is art AND science. But before it was a lot more art. Analytics helped balance the scales.

[Purple Haize]

I misread the analytics. So I am in favor of the call.

I disagree vehemently that analytics killed sports. I agree completely that sport is art AND science. But before it was a lot more art. Analytics helped balance the scales.

They’ve certainly helped but know there is an over reliance on them. It’s what killed the Mid Range game.

[tyndal23]

Bill Clark

106-11 as High School Coach

4 Years as DCO at South Alabama as they transitioned to FBS.

1 Season as JSU Head Coach. During his only season as head coach at Jacksonville State, Clark led the Gamecocks to their first playoff victories, 49 school records, 13 OVC records and three NCAA records.

Currently in 2nd Season at UAB. Led them to first bowl game in years in ‘15, led them through a bunch of crap to reestablish program in ‘16, and currently sits second in the the C-USA at 4-2.

Only 49 Years Old, has been successful at every stop. Has transition to FBS experience. Recruiting ties to much of southeast. Has FCS & FBS HC experience. Is a Christian. Clean record, Family Man, Defensive Minded yet none of his programs have been offensively inept.


May not be a huge name to average cfb fans, but his name is a lot more well known that you’d think. Unless Ian really thinks he has a shot at a coach that is a top
candidate for P5 schools, which maybe we do, this would be a really solid move IMO.

I stand by this. Coach Clark was my high school coach, has never “failed” at any level, and is on the way to possible coach of the year honors. I talked with JB in 2011 about him when he was still at USA, but Gill was chosen instead. I’ve said it all along I love Gill as a man, and I actually am satisfied with our record this year, but still wish we could get Clark. I’m sure things have changed a lot since then (Head coach at UAB >Coordinator at transitioning USA), but at that time Clark actually told me he would be “very interested” in the position. IF we don’t stick with Gill after next season I’d still take Clark over Freeze, Briles, etc. I’ll continue to float his name here and on social media until I legitimately see my dream die.

A few Auburn fans on their message board talking about Clark being a good candidate to replace Malzan.

[cruzan_flame13]

Isn't Malzan staying at Auburn though? This Clark guy sounds interesting; I'll look into him. I like that he has has good connections in the southeast region.

[FLAMEfromBAMA]

So let’s make him name his price with us. Liberty has been all about being able to compete with the Power 5 schools in regards to funds so let’s put it towards product rather than towards physical structures.

[FLAMEfromBAMA]

I understand what you’re saying. That’s why I said, “make him name his price”. Obviously he only comes if he wants to, but if we are wanting to battle the big boys we better not be paying our next head coach under 4 mil a year. We missed on Clark once 7 years ago and he’s in higher demand now, but everyone has a price when it comes to taking a job.

Remembering him from my time under him at Prattville he cares a lot about his family and his faith, so who knows if that would have an impact on his job decisions?

[FLAMEfromBAMA]

Also I’m sure folks are gonna say “No we aren’t at a point in our program to pay a coach that much...”. If you feel that way consider these questions, 1) When would you consider us at that point? 2) Is a coach making under that much going to get us to that point? 3) Has our program been at a good point to invest in all the facilities we’ve done? If so I don’t see how this is any different. Invest in the facilities because they build the program. Invest in a coach because he builds the program. 4+ Mil would put our coach in the top 25 in the country in terms of head coach salary. If we have money like we have said we have then use it.

[ballah09]

There are guys who will be willing to go anywhere for the right price. There are guys who don’t care about the money but want a great situation.

Guys in Clark’s position have the luxury of getting both. Why would you go to a transitional program trying to get to a median G5 level of competitiveness for a lot of money, when you could go to a traditional P5 power that’s had a couple of down years for just as much money or more?

This.

People here think we can pull any coach not named Saban. The fact is our program right now is what Duke described.

We will get either...
1. A position coach in the NFL
2. P5 Coordinator
3. A has been/Failed big named coach that can't get a job...ala another Turner Gill.

[FLAMEfromBAMA]

Not any coach, but we can certainly have conversations and talk big money. People take risks if the reward his high enough, I don’t care what profession it is.

[Jonathan Carone]

There are guys who will be willing to go anywhere for the right price. There are guys who don’t care about the money but want a great situation.

Guys in Clark’s position have the luxury of getting both. Why would you go to a transitional program trying to get to a median G5 level of competitiveness for a lot of money, when you could go to a traditional P5 power that’s had a couple of down years for just as much money or more?

I'm amazed at the amount of the people who think money is the end all be all for why guys choose jobs.

[Jonathan Carone]

People here think we can pull any coach not named Saban. The fact is our program right now is what Duke described.

We will get either...
1. A position coach in the NFL
2. P5 Coordinator
3. A has been/Failed big named coach that can't get a job...ala another Turner Gill.

I've said I think a P5 position coach similar to Rocco's pedigree could work. Never a coordinator but had high level administrative duties.

[FLAMEfromBAMA]

It’s not a be all end all, but to minimize the effect it has is also silly. You can see how I also mentioned faith and family in my above post as well. Bottom line, what myself and others believe is that if we aren’t at open to engaging with costly coaches we are missing the mark. Yeah sure a coach may not want to be responsible for building Liberty, but a coach may very well decide he does want to because the money is enough to offset his reservations. I’m not gonna move 10 hours away, uproot my family, leave my church, etc. unless the whole package is good and I feel as if God is leading me there. Part of that whole package part does include money. Coaches have agents and people around them to help them make wise career choices and think long term, Ian’s job is to convince al of those people LU is good for that individual long term and a BIG part of that is money.

Edit: Look at the history of Texas A&M. Obviously money given to a coach isn’t enough, but neither is having a great stadium, an indoor facility, a great FOC, etc. Pieces of the puzzle, and the willingness to throw money at hot commodities should be on the table is all I’m saying.

[jinxy]

Analytics have hurt a lot of sports more than theyve helped. I agree they can be helpful. They severely hurt baseball in both pace of play and the idea that batting 240 with 28 homers wins games. The red sox and astros have quelled that theory. Conversely, attacking pitches early in the count as opposed to the moneyball approach of obp worked because pitchers had adapted to throw get me over stuff early in the count. Defense shifted to plug holes against pull hitters. The point is things change.

I have only criticized gill once for 4th down decisions prior. Those analytics dont cover a lot of things such as are you punting with the wind, fact we had just gotten our first non turnover stop otherwise known as confidence and momentum. Further alves has been crushing punts since the troy fiasco. Remarkable turnaround.

Look i would go for on 4th and 2 or less every time between your own 40 and field goal range. The 14 yard line and the situation meant that if we failed we basically lost the game. If we picked it up guess what we still have 85 yds to go.

As far as clark goes. I would say he can name his job right now. When the change is made we can get a good quality coach. Gill has helped in one way. Hes shown that there is enough talent in the program that you can win 4 or 5 games even with his coaching ha. Last year that was a big question i would have had if j was clark streeter or anybody else with a job i valued.

I actually think this year is the time for the change. New coach would have agg buckshot and lemonier to anchor the team and build for future. That being said i still think were stuck with him for 19 with a dc change.

[Ewglenn]

When your opponent isn’t a powerful offense you need to make it more difficult on them to score. UVA has a bad offense. Why go and chance giving them pretty much a sure fire td. I like going on fourth but at least be at the 40. Now if they would have gotten it I would still not like the call. I would however like the result.

[tyndal23]

$4 million for a coach at this stage ? To do what and get us where ? This is a major reason why I think we have to define what our goals are as a program. To be a G5 equivalent Independent - that number would be ludicrous. If we stated we are going to be a P5 equivalent Independent by year X - then if you found your guy for long term now you could structure his salary back end loaded as it heads toward P5 schedule -but most likely since that is 2026 at earliest - this next coach doesn’t even factor in. We will be in same predicament as N TX, UAB, UCF - a stepping stone to a P5 as soon as a coach has 1-2 years of success if we try and be a G5 or some kind of hybrid. I believe the distinction of P5 equivalent vs G5 equivalent matters as much or more to coach quality and retention as it does to recruiting.

[Dalegarz1]

Analytics can be very misleading. This is my profession so no one knows this better than I do. There are many other variables which you have to take into account when trying to interpret things such as "expected value". Those calculations only provide a broad brushstroke not a detailed picture. The better analytics go much deeper into each circumstance. For instance, in the fourth and inches play in the UVA game. Factors such as who's carrying the ball; behind which lineman are we going to run; who is the opposing team's weakest run stopper and on and on. That's why analytics can NEVER be the sole deciding factor. No analytic can ever satisfactorily quantify all variables. Useful-yes; definitive-no.

[ballcoach15]

Flamefrom Bama, did you play high school ball at Oxford HS ?.

[FLAMEfromBAMA]

Prattville. I ended up not playing through my senior year though. I met with Coach Clark and told his about my calling into ministry and how I didn’t feel I could pursue that and continue playing. He tried to convince me to stay on and be a spiritual leader for the team rather that quitting (which was right), but I wasn’t at a spot in my own walk where I was influencing others, rather I was being negatively influenced myself in BIG ways so I knew I had to step back. He was great and understanding, and even today his encouragement to step up and lead my teammates towards Christ has an impression on my life. I will always wish I was sound enough in my own faith to do just that and finish out my HS career there at Prattville.

[LUAlum1215]

Just to stir the pot a little... LSU and Les Miles reached a buyout agreement of $1.5M. He was owed $6.5M. He’s now eligible to coach again.

[tyndal23]

He will only coach on a grass field.