It looks like Houston is a lock to join the Big 12. The governor and lieutenant governor of Texas have demanded it, the UT president endorses it, the Big 12 coaches picked Houston and BYU as their top preferences for expansion, and now the president of Texas Tech is making positive noise about their addition:
"As the Big 12 evaluates its options for expansion, Texas Tech welcomes the consideration of the University of Houston. We have always valued our partnerships with UH." - Dr. Lawrence Schovanec, Texas Tech's incoming president
ESPN Big 12 beat writer Jake Trotter says, "In one afternoon, I think Houston went from being considered third or fourth in the pecking order to No. 1. That's what having the Texas president and state governor endorse your expansion candidacy publicly will do. Texas has only one vote. But there will be immense political pressure on Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU to join Greg Fenves. At this moment, it's difficult to see any Big 12 expansion that doesn't include the Coogs. Houston fans should be ecstatic."
Trotter goes on to say, "As of today, with the key word being 'today,' this is how I rank the expansion candidates, based solely on how I believe the Big 12 collectively views them: 1. Houston, 2. BYU, 3. Cincinnati, 4. UConn, 5. Central Florida, 6. Memphis, 7. Colorado State, 8. Tulane, 9. Boise State, 10. South Florida.
Trotter's entire column is an excellent Q&A on Big 12 expansion. Check it out:
http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_/id ... za-edition
The question, however, is whether or not the non-Texas schools want another Texas team in the conference. Houston would make five. Oklahoma, which has been strangely silent so far, hasn't weighed in as a counterbalance to Texas. Oklahoma State will probably do whatever Oklahoma does. I suspect that West Virginia doesn't care as long as they get an eastern travel partner. My guess is that Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State would not be happy with another Texas team in the mix.
If Trotter's list is accurate, the AAC would lose three teams if the Big 12 goes for a 14-team roster (Houston, Cincinnati, UConn). That would leave the AAC with three teams to replace to get back to 12, and C-USA and the Sun Belt look to be the best candidates for poaching in that order. That means Liberty could find itself lobbying for either C-USA or Sun Belt membership - or both.