[TH Spangler]

Speaking of rail ... I'm sure the light rail project would be coordinated with the arena.

http://www.masstransitmag.com/news/1214 ... light-rail

This COULD (?) hurt ODU football. If a pro team was attacked, ODU would lose their "biggest game in town status".

Whenever the subject of an arena came up in the past, hosting the ACC tourney or a NCAA regional always gets mentioned. Lots of rooms available in March.

[lynchburgwildcats]

NHL in the Hampton/Virginia Beach area? The notion that would be longterm successful is L - O - L worthy

[rogers3]

If you are going by pure numbers, Hampton Roads market is #42 just one tick ahead of #43 OKC. The following markets have major franchises that are smaller than Hampton Roads:

• 47. Jacksonville
  50. Memphis
  51. New Orleans
  53. Buffalo
  68. Green Bay

Jax is about to lose an NFL franchise they should never have received int he first place. Memphis had the corporate support and was right place at right time. They also are on shaky footing. New Orleans numbers are way down Post-Katrina but until the recent oil bust had tons of great corporate support. Buffalo would never get either an NFL or NHL franchise if they weren't already grandfathered in. And Green Bay has the unique ownership arrangement that will keep it there forever as the de facto team for the entire state. So there is not much to use as justification.

Here are some major markets who do not have an NBA franchise:

• 11. Tampa-St. Pete
  14. Seattle
  21. St. Louis
  23. Pittsburgh
  25. Research Triangle
  26. Baltimore
  28. San Diego
  29. Nashville

The list could on & on of cities with more population and corporate support. And that is before you bring in per capita income in any area with a heavy military population. But once again, I suggest corporate support would be the achilles heal for the area.

Those numbers are pretty far off if you are going by 2010 MSA numbers. Hampton Roads is running neck and neck with Nashville. I'd guess an MSA with upwards of 1.7 million would have as good of a shot as any other if they want to pony up the dollars for a facility.

[Sly Fox]

My numbers were from 2015-2016 Nielsen markets.

[Humble_Opinion]

The 757 area has supported minor league teams in baseball (AAA Norfolk Tides) and hockey (ECHL/AHL Hampton Roads/Norfolk Admirals) for quite a long time now. Scope was voted as one of the toughest venues to play in for opposing teams for several years, mostly due to the support the teams received from the fanbase. The trouble is that Norfolk never properly reinvested in that part of downtown until the past 10-12 years. Even so, Scope is mostly out-of-date now. Harbor Park, home of the Tides, is a beautiful ballpark, and one of the best minor-league venues to visit.

As far as corporate support goes, don't forget Huntington-Ingalls. The only manufacturer of the supercarrier for the US Navy. I'm sure it's possible they could attract some attention from companies in Richmond as well. On top of that, you have several successful smallcap firms that are growing/expanding in the area, along with the prospect that the ports in the area are likely to become more and more busy over the next several years moving into the future, because of the natural deep-water ports. Container ships have grown tremendously in size, and as a result the ports in Norfolk are undergoing heavy investment to grow in anticipation of the expected growth.

In addition Sly, the Norfolk/Va Beach MSA is one of, if not the largest MSA's to not support a single professional/major league team. All of the cities you mentioned already support one, or more teams. If you look at it from a disposable income/per capita/per team, the Norfolk MSA likely wins out.

[Sly Fox]

Huntingtin-Ingalls was the 3rd Fortune 500 company that I referenced.

Since you asked, here are markets larger than Hampton Roads without a major professional sports franchise:

• 30. Hartford
  37. Greenville/Spartanburg
  38. West Palm Beach
  39. Austin
  40. Las Vegas
  41. Grand Rapids

Several significantly larger markets only have NHL or MLS teams. All of these markets with the possible exception of the Western Carolinas & Western Michigan have much stronger corporate support. Now it is very likely that big money will push major franchise to Austin & Vegas in the next decade and Hartford came close with the Pats.

[rogers3]

Huntingtin-Ingalls was the 3rd Fortune 500 company that I referenced.

Since you asked, here are markets larger than Hampton Roads without a major professional sports franchise:

• 30. Hartford
  37. Greenville/Spartanburg
  38. West Palm Beach
  39. Austin
  40. Las Vegas
  41. Grand Rapids

Several significantly larger markets only have NHL or MLS teams. All of these markets with the possible exception of the Western Carolinas & Western Michigan have much stronger corporate support. Now it is very likely that big money will push major franchise to Austin & Vegas in the next decade and Hartford came close with the Pats.

Sly, unless everyone is making decisions based on Nielsen, those numbers aren't too meaningful. I would argue that the numbers from the census and the interim numbers from the Weldon Cooper center are a much better representation than what you have posted. Grand Rapids...Greenville... Really??? While a small city can have a large CSA (and both of those are significantly smaller) easily missed is the area that those figures come from. Case in point, Greenville's CSA of 1.4m covers 6000 sq miles, while Hampton Roads is less than a tenth the size with a 1.8m population. In the Market Research classes I've taught, that is a significant size difference.

[Sly Fox]

UVa numbers are fine for the area they track. But don't help much for comparisons to other regions. And their numbers line up very well with Nielsen numbers. The only potential difference could be determining market coverage area. For Hampton Roads, it is pretty clearly defined geographically.

Greenville/Spartanburg to Hampton Roads is not as crazy of a comparison as you suggest. Greenville coverage area is primarily made up of mountaineous territory with population not much higher than the Atlantic Ocean to Tidewater's east. But I agree that the Western Carolinas market is an outlier. Western Michigan not so much.

[TH Spangler]

The Greensboro Coliseum has no pro team but does well hosting tournaments, conventions etc.

[Sly Fox]

And that is the likely scenario for this arena in Virginia Beach. But I suspect the government and private backers would be very disappointed if that is all they get for this pile of money and going into debt to the Chinese.

[rogers3]

UVa numbers are fine for the area they track. But don't help much for comparisons to other regions. And their numbers line up very well with Nielsen numbers. The only potential difference could be determining market coverage area. For Hampton Roads, it is pretty clearly defined geographically.

Greenville/Spartanburg to Hampton Roads is not as crazy of a comparison as you suggest. Greenville coverage area is primarily made up of mountaineous territory with population not much higher than the Atlantic Ocean to Tidewater's east. But I agree that the Western Carolinas market is an outlier. Western Michigan not so much.

Well, we'll just have to disagree on the comparisons of census data versus Nielsen data. A 600 sq mile area with 1.8 million trumps quite a few of those lesser markets. One interesting thing that supports what I am talking about is that using Nielsen data, one could argue that Lynchburg is a larger market than Rochester, Tucson, Syracuse, Spokane, Omaha, Savannah, El Paso, Charleston SC, etc. After all, it is ranked 69th in the US. We all know those TV market rankings aren't always reflective of the true nature of the regions that they describe. Another indicator of this is GDP. Hampton Road's GDP is 80% larger then the Grand Rapids MSA and almost three times that of the Greenville SC MSA. This is stuff right out of a college market research course that I've taught for five years now, so I'm not making it up! I guess it doesn't really matter; an expansion team might not ever happen in the area, but it certainly won't be because the market is to small or not prestigious enough. It is pretty interesting to compare GDP data. Only a few regions with GDP of more than 100m per year do NOT have some kind of major league program. Hampton Roads is close, with ~ 91m.

[Sly Fox]

I'd love to hear badger74 chime in since he has phenomenal credentials in this discussion.

I would suggest to you that media markets are generally a good way to determine potential success for major sports franchises. As it relates to a major sports franchise, Lynchburg would be just as well equipped as any of the above markets you listed to handle the challenge. Of course, none of those cities with the possible exception of Tuscon have any chance of that ever happening in our lifetimes.

GDP is a great economic indicator but it does not necessarily reflect a market's disposable income. Manufacturing-based markets maintained the stranglehold on wealth for most of our prior generations but no longer today. I hate to bring up Austin because of my obvious ties but it is a great example of contrast to the Hampton Roads economy based on dwindling defense dollars. Vegas is another obvious contrast. Hampton Roads needs to do a better job of getting its own house in order with bickering municipalities and an overtaxed infrastructure. Both of those would seem to be higher priorities than gambling that an NHL franchise is suddenly going to appear and be an economic engine for a struggling area.

[rogers3]

I'd love to hear badger74 chime in since he has phenomenal credentials in this discussion.

I would suggest to you that media markets are generally a good way to determine potential success for major sports franchises. As it relates to a major sports franchise, Lynchburg would be just as well equipped as any of the above markets you listed to handle the challenge. Of course, none of those cities with the possible exception of Tuscon have any chance of that ever happening in our lifetimes.

GDP is a great economic indicator but it does not necessarily reflect a market's disposable income. Manufacturing-based markets maintained the stranglehold on wealth for most of our prior generations but no longer today. I hate to bring up Austin because of my obvious ties but it is a great example of contrast to the Hampton Roads economy based on dwindling defense dollars. Vegas is another obvious contrast. Hampton Roads needs to do a better job of getting its own house in order with bickering municipalities and an overtaxed infrastructure. Both of those would seem to be higher priorities than gambling that an NHL franchise is suddenly going to appear and be an economic engine for a struggling area.

While regional media markets seem to play heavily in the FCS to FBS equation, this study supports the thought that there is a strong correlation between MSA size and total earnings as a measure to determine how well an area could support professional sports. There is certainly more of an emphasis on how many people in a region could afford to attend (rather than watch) a professional sports event. Obviously, Lynchburg didn't make the cut!

[Sly Fox]

I would agree with much of that study. Total earnings to cost of living index has traditionally been a big selling point for the organizations that I have been around looking to bring either major sports franchises or events to cities. Disposable income is really tough to define in a general sense for any market. But demographic indicators can give strong clues.

[lynchburgwildcats]

The 757 area has supported minor league teams in baseball (AAA Norfolk Tides) and hockey (ECHL/AHL Hampton Roads/Norfolk Admirals) for quite a long time now. Scope was voted as one of the toughest venues to play in for opposing teams for several years, mostly due to the support the teams received from the fanbase. The trouble is that Norfolk never properly reinvested in that part of downtown until the past 10-12 years. Even so, Scope is mostly out-of-date now. Harbor Park, home of the Tides, is a beautiful ballpark, and one of the best minor-league venues to visit.

As far as corporate support goes, don't forget Huntington-Ingalls. The only manufacturer of the supercarrier for the US Navy. I'm sure it's possible they could attract some attention from companies in Richmond as well. On top of that, you have several successful smallcap firms that are growing/expanding in the area, along with the prospect that the ports in the area are likely to become more and more busy over the next several years moving into the future, because of the natural deep-water ports. Container ships have grown tremendously in size, and as a result the ports in Norfolk are undergoing heavy investment to grow in anticipation of the expected growth.

In addition Sly, the Norfolk/Va Beach MSA is one of, if not the largest MSA's to not support a single professional/major league team. All of the cities you mentioned already support one, or more teams. If you look at it from a disposable income/per capita/per team, the Norfolk MSA likely wins out.

Huntington-Ingalls recently laid off a ton of people at Newport News Apprentice School and rumor is they could be eventually slashing the entire athletic department. Not sure they are the corporate sponsor to go after.

[Flamepop]

The population in Va. Beach and the surrounding cities is pretty transient. There is a large military presence that will be there for 3 years or so, then they are gone to the next duty station. Most come with allegiances to their home town teams and I doubt someone in the area for just a short time is going to be a big supporter of a Va, Beach team. These are the ones with good incomes they would be counting on. It's hard to go to a game when you are on a carrier in the Persian gulf.

Another red flag is they are putting the arena near the beach with only one way in or out. Traffic will be a nightmare.

This area has been taken to the cleaners before with pro sports (anyone remember Rocky the hockey playing Rhino?), NHL and NBA have both been paraded as almost sure things just busting out waiting to get into this market. It's not happening. Heck they have had an Independent League Baseball team, the Va. Beach Admirals who are supposed to play in the Atlantic League on the board for several years with plans for a stadium and surrounding set of youth fields where they want to compete with Cooperstown for the summer youth teams and none of this is happening.

Concerts, conventions yes. Major college basketball tournaments, maybe the CIAA (Norfolk State) but I doubt Conference USA (ODU) and I definitely don't see the ACC, womens or mens tournaments like they are touting.

[rogers3]

The population in Va. Beach and the surrounding cities is pretty transient. There is a large military presence that will be there for 3 years or so, then they are gone to the next duty station. Most come with allegiances to their home town teams and I doubt someone in the area for just a short time is going to be a big supporter of a Va, Beach team. These are the ones with good incomes they would be counting on. It's hard to go to a game when you are on a carrier in the Persian gulf.

Another red flag is they are putting the arena near the beach with only one way in or out. Traffic will be a nightmare.

This area has been taken to the cleaners before with pro sports (anyone remember Rocky the hockey playing Rhino?), NHL and NBA have both been paraded as almost sure things just busting out waiting to get into this market. It's not happening. Heck they have had an Independent League Baseball team, the Va. Beach Admirals who are supposed to play in the Atlantic League on the board for several years with plans for a stadium and surrounding set of youth fields where they want to compete with Cooperstown for the summer youth teams and none of this is happening.

Concerts, conventions yes. Major college basketball tournaments, maybe the CIAA (Norfolk State) but I doubt Conference USA (ODU) and I definitely don't see the ACC, womens or mens tournaments like they are touting.

Boy, you sound pretty jaded! Traffic is certainly bad. Just imagine some big tourney and along comes a hurricane evac!

[Humble_Opinion]

Huntington-Ingalls recently laid off a ton of people at Newport News Apprentice School and rumor is they could be eventually slashing the entire athletic department. Not sure they are the corporate sponsor to go after.

Yes. They did lay off people. They have an overall workforce of around 38k though. They also have a niche market in that they are the only shipyard in the US capable of building supercarriers for the US Navy. The reduction in their workforce is really only temporary in nature, and is expected to increase again in 2017 when more contracts begin to execute.

[BJWilliams]

As someone who has lived in the Hampton Roads area most of my life, I have seen a lot of non-starters as far as professional sports go. yet, I have maintained enough optimism about the situation that I have not become...I'll use your word rogers...jaded...about the prospects. I still will believe it when I see it, but I at least think that there is a chance that I will get to see it.

[Humble_Opinion]

As someone who has lived in the Hampton Roads area most of my life, I have seen a lot of non-starters as far as professional sports go. yet, I have maintained enough optimism about the situation that I have not become...I'll use your word rogers...jaded...about the prospects. I still will believe it when I see it, but I at least think that there is a chance that I will get to see it.

Where at BJ? I lived in Chesapeake until I transferred to LU in at the age of 22. All of my family still lives in the area though.

I honestly don't think it's going to happen. I think the area could support it, but I don't believe expansion in the major leagues is going to happen. Most of the "major" sports seem interested in trying to expand in some capacity overseas.

[Sly Fox]

It would have to be a franchise moving from a current city.

[BJWilliams]

As someone who has lived in the Hampton Roads area most of my life, I have seen a lot of non-starters as far as professional sports go. yet, I have maintained enough optimism about the situation that I have not become...I'll use your word rogers...jaded...about the prospects. I still will believe it when I see it, but I at least think that there is a chance that I will get to see it.

Where at BJ? I lived in Chesapeake until I transferred to LU in at the age of 22. All of my family still lives in the area though.

I honestly don't think it's going to happen. I think the area could support it, but I don't believe expansion in the major leagues is going to happen. Most of the "major" sports seem interested in trying to expand in some capacity overseas.

Portsmouth...did have a cup of hot chocolate in Chesapeake before my life went completely sideways...but that is neither here nor there to this discussion.

The biggest reason I've seen for why major league pro franchises have been non-starters is the simple fact that the governments in each of the seven cities haven't figured out how to play together...and as a result the infrastructure never really gets worked out to a satisfactory level.