[R i]

I think they sum it up pretty nicely.

[jcmanson]

So, we're basically ranked 33rd in the preseason coaches' poll. Anyone still think if we're 4-1 we wouldn't be ranked?

[jcmanson]

Here's the full top 25 http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs

[bluejacket]

Yeah, its still unlikely that we will be top 25 if we are 4-1....

Check out the top 25 teams' schedules and project them; 8 teams are not going to fall out of the top 25 by week 5. Lehigh, Illinois St., Missouri St. Eastern Kentucky will likely pass us, based on their schedules, and we'll need to make up even more votes.

My predictions for Sept. 27, ordered by the preseason poll.

#1 NDSU: 3-1
#2 Eastern Washington: 4-1
#3 Southeastern Louisiana: 4-1
#4 New Hampshire: 2-2, but we're not passing them in votes
#5 Montana: 3-2, but we're not passing them votes
#6 Coastal: 5-0
#7 Towson: 4-1
#8 Jacksonville State: 4-1
#9 McNeese State: 2-1
#10 South Dakota State: 3-1
#11 Eastern Illinois: 1-4, we pass them in votes
#12 Fordham: 4-1
#13 Villanova: 3-1
#14 Sam Houston State: 3-2, but not passing them in votes
#15 Northern Iowa: 2-2, but not passing them in votes
#16 Chattanooga: 2-2, we pass in votes
#17 Tennessee State: 4-1
#18 Furman: 5-0
#19 Montana State: 3-2, but not passing them in votes
#20 Maine: 2-2, but I don't think that we pass them in votes
#21 Youngstown State: 3-1
#22 William & Mary: 4-1
#23 Bethune-Cookman: 2-2, we pass them in votes
#24 Richmond: 3-1
#25 Northern Arizona: 4-1
#26 Samford: 3-1
#27 Southern Illinois: 3-1
#28 Harvard: 2-0
#29 Charleston Southern: 5-0
#30 James Madison: 2-3, we pass in votes
#31 Princeton: 2-0
#32 Southern Utah: 1-4, we pass in votes
#33 Alcorn State: 3-2, we pass in votes
#34 Liberty: 4-1
#35 Delaware: 2-2
#36 South Carolina State: 2-3
#37 Cal Poly: 3-2
#38 Missouri State: 3-1, will pass us in votes
#39 Sacred Heart: 3-1
#40 Wofford: 3-1
#41 Central Arkansas: 2-3
#42 Alabama State: 2-3
#43 Lehigh: 3-1, will pass us in votes
#44 Eastern Kentucky: 3-1, will pass us in votes
#45 Holy Cross: 2-3
#46 Illinois State: 3-0, will pass us in votes
#46 Jacksonville: 0-4

[R i]

That was a ton of work, but very interesting Blue Jacket. thanks.

[BJWilliams]

The thing that also needs to be taken into account is how teams do in their games. if a team ahead of us based on that projections wins a game they are supposed to win, but does not win as decisively as they were expected to, that make take some votes that could go our way if our results are more decisive in our victories and we show a greater competitiveness in the game we are supposed to lose

[bluejacket]

Yes, our positioning will depend upon how competitive our games are and how others perform. I can't account for major upsets, blowouts, injuries, etc. so this is a baseline prediction based on what I know of each team, combined with whether the games are home or away, their historical performances against each other (if they have played each other in 2013), historical reputation/performance of conferences in polls, and other factors.

Additionally, all of the numbers should line up with each other. Montana plays NDSU in Fargo and I predict that they lose, so that's accounted for in NDSU and Montana's columns. All of matchups can be listed, I just didn't have time to type them out.

To give some instances, Northern Iowa plays @Iowa, BYE, @Hawaii, Northern Iowa, Tennessee Tech in the first five weeks. If they go 2-2, as I think that they will, we're not passing them unless we are 5-0. Montana won't drop below us after losing to NDSU and Wyoming. Lehigh will pass us, if they are 3-1 with their only loss to UNH and wins against JMU, @Yale, and Monmouth. But Wofford, a traditional power, won't pass us at 3-1 because their schedule goes @Georgia Tech, BYE, North Greenville, @Gardner-Webb, UVA-Wise (!) Maine will be a team to watch because they play Norfolk State, BYE, and @Bryant to start the season; they will play a major factor in our rankings.

I don't think that its impossible that we make top 25 by week 5, but its unlikely, even though a lot can change. IMO, polls shouldn't start until after week 4. Preseason polls are generally garbage.

[jcmanson]

You can now vote on who wins the Monmouth game http://www.libertyflamesnation.com/expe ... -monmouth/

All polls can be found here http://www.libertyflamesnation.com/yop- ... hive/2014/

[jcmanson]

We're #27 in the Sports Network top 25. Good luck trying to argue against us cracking that one at 4-1, bluejacket.

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnf ... 5poll.aspx

[bluejacket]

Its preseason.

Neither of these polls are very good. TSN Poll is a joke and probably the worst out of all of them. Who is voting for Duquesne, Indiana State, and San Diego?

[jcmanson]

Its preseason.

Neither of these polls are very good. TSN Poll is a joke and probably the worst out of all of them. Who is voting for Duquesne, Indiana State, and San Diego?

Backtracking at its finest...

[BJWilliams]

Kevin Fogg doesnt do it better manson

[bluejacket]

High rankings in a terrible preseason poll is nothing to shout about.

[jcmanson]

Is it really that hard to admit you were wrong?

[bluejacket]

Yes

[BJWilliams]

Might want to see a counselor for that bro

[jcmanson]

You can now vote on the Charleston Southern game - http://www.libertyflamesnation.com/yop- ... oll_page=3

[BJWilliams]

From the look of the polls so far, a lot of people have us with 10 wins this year. The only poll that projects a loss is North Carolina and all we have left is Coastal Carolina. Either a lot of "koolaid drinkers" are voting or somebody has some really good computer skills and is skewing the votes

[jbock13]

There's also a lot of homers voting.

[jcmanson]

We did the same thing last year and the predicted record was 11-1 with the only predicted loss being to ODU. So, the voting this year is similar. Also, our 4 losses last season, were the 4 games that had the narrowest voting margin.

[BJWilliams]

I think my thread had us at 2 losses but really at this point 3 is more likely. that said, if we pull off the unlikely upset of UNC, my question is will there be a letdown in the next couple weeks after, or will the momentum from that game kickstart an unlikely run for us

[bluejacket]

I think my thread had us at 2 losses but really at this point 3 is more likely. that said, if we pull off the unlikely upset of UNC, my question is will there be a letdown in the next couple weeks after, or will the momentum from that ga?e kickstart an unlikely run for us

If we beat UNC, there won't be a let down. We are not going to lose to any of the next four opponents, regardless of the outcome in Chapel Hill. A loss to any of them would be disastrous. We'll be double digit favorites in each, barring multiple catastrophic injuries.

Richmond will be the next key benchmark after UNC and that matchup will determine the outlook for the rest of the season.

[BJWilliams]

You raise a fair point bluejacket...Richmond is our only other in state opponent this year (since VMI is now in the SoCon), it's homecoming night and we could be 4-1 (or 5-0) and ranked pretty highly so that will be a very important game.

[JK37]

Can we please stop hinting at even a possibility of beating UNC?! I believe in "that's why they play the game" more than most, but to even point out the possibility goes behind that frame of mind and paints the speaker as ignorant.

[bluejacket]

Can we please stop hinting at even a possibility of beating UNC?! I believe in "that's why they play the game" more than most, but to even point out the possibility goes behind that frame of mind and paints the speaker as ignorant.

We can win, but some people believe its a 50/50 chance. I'll be generous and say 93% loss and 7% win.