[belcherboy]

Since the election process is no longer 1 day in the United States, I figured I'd start a thread now about it. I voted yesterday, and I'm sure many others have done so. Here is some stats I found interesting from early voting. Feel free to share your predictions of the election (General election and EC), and whatever things you find interesting in regards to the election that ends in couple of weeks (at least the voting part).

Battleground states:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign- ... ing-states#

Republican National Committee Political Director Rick Wiley sends along this summary of early-voting and absentee ballot voting efforts in swing states.

the memo:

COLORADO

Republicans are leading Democrats in absentee ballot requests and early votes by over 10,000 voters.
Republicans are outperforming voter registration by 2.13 points.
Republicans won the first day of early voting in Colorado. In 2008, Republicans lost early voting by nearly 4 points.
Republicans have made 1.5 million volunteer voter contacts in Colorado since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

FLORIDA

Republicans are leading Democrats in absentee ballot requests by over 44,000 voters.
Republicans are outperforming voter registration by 5.6 points.
Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 5.01 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 3.78 points. The result is a net swing of +8.78 percentage points for Republicans.
Republicans have made over 5.7 million volunteer voter contacts in Florida since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

IOWA

At this point in 2008, Democrats led by almost 24 points in early voting. Today they lead by 8.3 points, a 65 percent collapse in Democrat support.
Almost 5,000 fewer Democrats have voted early this year than had done so at this time in 2008.
Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 0.41 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 1.23 points. The result is a net swing of +1.65 percentage points for Republicans.Republicans have made nearly 1.1 million volunteer voter contacts in Iowa since the AB/EV turnout program began in the state.

MICHIGAN

AB/EV activity is down from 2008 in Democrat-leaning Washtenaw County (-5.05%).
AB/EV activity is up in Republican-leaning Ottawa County (7.90%).
Republicans have made over 1.8 million voter contacts in Michigan since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

NORTH CAROLINA

Republicans are outperforming our voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by nearly 2 points.
Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 3.31 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 1.83 points. The result is a net swing of +5.14 percentage points for Republicans.
Republicans have narrowed the gap with Democrats in One-Stop early voting by 10.51 percentage points compared to the same point in 2008. Republicans have seen 59% growth in early voter turnout compared to 2008, while Democrats have grown by less than 20%.
Republicans have made nearly 2.2 million volunteer voter contacts in North Carolina since the AB/EV turnout program began in the state.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Republicans lead Democrats by over 5 points in absentee ballot requests in New Hampshire’s key towns.
Republicans are outperforming our voter registration in absentee requests by 4 points.
Republicans have made over 700,000 volunteer voter contacts in New Hampshire since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

NEVADA

Republicans are outperforming our voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 4 points.Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 2.11 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 2.30 points. The result is a net swing of +4.41 percentage points for Republicans.
In Clark County, Republicans have narrowed the gap with Democrats in early voting by 13.4 percentage points compared to the same point in 2008.
Republicans have seen 62% growth in early voter turnout compared to this point in 2008, while Democrats have only seen 14% growth.
Republicans have made over 1.3 million volunteer voter contacts in Nevada since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

OHIO

Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 8.73 points.
Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 7.60 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 5.94 points. The result is a net swing of +13.54 percentage points for Republicans.
Republicans have closed the gap on Democrats’ historic absentee and early vote advantage for 15 of the past 16 days.
Republicans have made almost 3.7 million volunteer voter contacts in Ohio since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

PENNSYLVANIA

Republicans are leading Democrats by over 19,000 absentee requests.
Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests by nearly 12 points.
Democrats are under-performing their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 4.06 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 2.10 points. The result is a net swing of +6.16 percentage points for Republicans.
Republicans have made nearly 3 million volunteer voter contacts in Pennsylvania since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

VIRGINIA

AB/EV activity is down from 2008 in the Democrat counties of Alexandria (-10.12%), Arlington (-13.38%), Fairfax (-6.03%).
AB/EV activity is up in Republican-leaning Loudoun County (14.60%).
Republicans have made more than 2.7 million volunteer voter contacts in Virginia since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

WISCONSIN

AB/EV activity is down from 2008 the Democrat counties of La Crosse (-19.25%) and Rock (-6.41%)
AB/EV activity is up the Republican counties of Outagamie (12.06%) and Washington (26.14%).
On the first day of in-person absentee voting, the Republican bastion of Waukesha County out-voted Dane County, a liberal Democrat stronghold and home to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, despite visits to Madison by high-profile Democrat surrogates and celebrities.
Republicans have made over 2 million volunteer voter contacts in Wisconsin since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

[RubberMallet]

he repub who can beat obama is basically already teh election thread.

[jbock13]

2102 is a long ways from now...

[belcherboy]

Here is my prediction: (I've really changed my opinion on the election in the past month)

I've got an upset: Obama 261 to Romney's 277
Maybe it is just the excitement of an underdog upset, but my gut says that this election will be a shocker.

Battleground States:
Obama takes: Ohio, PA, and Iowa
Romney takes: Wisconsin, Florida, VA, NH, and Nevada

Popular Vote: Romney 47.8% vs. Obama 47.3%

I also predict that this election's results will be debated till December. I think it's going to be that close.

[LUconn]

I think Romney crushes the popular vote. He's something like +22 in the South. But that doesn't win you the electoral votes obviously. The info you posted above about early voting in OH makes me think Romney will make up enough ground to take the state which in my mind is the win or lose the election state.

[Purple Haize]

he repub who can beat obama is basically already teh election thread.

Well before he changed it this was the election 90 years from now

Apparently the 40 pages of the other thread weren't enough!

[belcherboy]

he repub who can beat obama is basically already teh election thread.

Well before he changed it this was the election 90 years from now

Apparently the 40 pages of the other thread weren't enough!

Or maybe some people don't want to search through 40 pages of everything from Donald Trump to abortion to who has the most expensive wardrobe of the candidates wives. Maybe some people want to talk about the what will happen on election night between Obama and Romney. I guess we will find out, as this thread will likely be ignored if people like the other better. I'm probably too ADD, but I couldn't keep up with most the discussions going on in that thread.

[Purple Haize]

Or maybe some people are lazy... Ha

[RubberMallet]

he repub who can beat obama is basically already teh election thread.

Well before he changed it this was the election 90 years from now

Apparently the 40 pages of the other thread weren't enough!

Or maybe some people don't want to search through 40 pages of everything from Donald Trump to abortion to who has the most expensive wardrobe of the candidates wives. Maybe some people want to talk about the what will happen on election night between Obama and Romney. I guess we will find out, as this thread will likely be ignored if people like the other better. I'm probably too ADD, but I couldn't keep up with most the discussions going on in that thread.

search through? or click on the last page of.

[belcherboy]

Well before he changed it this was the election 90 years from now

Apparently the 40 pages of the other thread weren't enough!

Or maybe some people don't want to search through 40 pages of everything from Donald Trump to abortion to who has the most expensive wardrobe of the candidates wives. Maybe some people want to talk about the what will happen on election night between Obama and Romney. I guess we will find out, as this thread will likely be ignored if people like the other better. I'm probably too ADD, but I couldn't keep up with most the discussions going on in that thread.

search through? or click on the last page of.

Or maybe start a new thread and skip those steps?

Seriously, have I broken some message board rules here? It really wouldn't bother me if we erase this thread. I just thought it narrows down the topic a little more than the other did. If everyone feels that this is a waste of message board space, let's get rid of it.

[jbock13]

It's cool guys, just keep it here.

Even though the other thread became the de facto politics thread, the original post was nothing but a puff piece for Ron Paul.

Even though I like Ron Paul.

[belcherboy]

Or maybe some people are lazy... Ha

I think this is much more accurate!

I'm just use to message boards that keep more detailed discussions. The other thread was more of a general politics thread, in my opinion, than an election thread. But again, this isn't my message board, and I don't want to come on here and act like I own it. So, my apologies if this thread has proven to be redundant.

[RubberMallet]

Or maybe some people don't want to search through 40 pages of everything from Donald Trump to abortion to who has the most expensive wardrobe of the candidates wives. Maybe some people want to talk about the what will happen on election night between Obama and Romney. I guess we will find out, as this thread will likely be ignored if people like the other better. I'm probably too ADD, but I couldn't keep up with most the discussions going on in that thread.

search through? or click on the last page of.

Or maybe start a new thread and skip those steps?

Seriously, have I broken some message board rules here? It really wouldn't bother me if we erase this thread. I just thought it narrows down the topic a little more than the other did. If everyone feels that this is a waste of message board space, let's get rid of it.

technically creating a new thread actually adds more steps... the whole thread has been about the election essentially. its just comical that you created basically the exact thread that already exists. nobody cares that if there are 13 threads on it.jbock will spam them all.

[jbock13]

[belcherboy]

search through? or click on the last page of.

Or maybe start a new thread and skip those steps?

Seriously, have I broken some message board rules here? It really wouldn't bother me if we erase this thread. I just thought it narrows down the topic a little more than the other did. If everyone feels that this is a waste of message board space, let's get rid of it.

technically creating a new thread actually adds more steps... the whole thread has been about the election essentially. its just comical that you created basically the exact thread that already exists. nobody cares that if there are 13 threads on it.jbock will spam them all.

Ok, I just didn't see much about the details of the election in there, at least not much in the last few pages (numbers and such). It seemed a lot about things that were just "political fluff" from my perspective. Again, I'm not the authority on it, so I probably just perceived it wrongly.

We can just dump this one and keep the conversation in there. I'll figure my way through the other thread.

[ALUmnus]

WHY IS THERE THIS NEW THREAD???? SOMEONE EXPLAIN THIS TO ME!!!

[4everfsu]

I don't see anything wrong with using this thread as long as we keep it on topic.

[RubberMallet]

WHY IS THERE THIS NEW THREAD???? SOMEONE EXPLAIN THIS TO ME!!!

well some guy was apparently started on page 1 and was clicking his way through page after page to get to the present conversation....he got fed up and started a new thread which was allegedly a step skipping operation.

[adam42381]

Figured it was time to start one...

[Hold My Own]

I dont understand. We now have 2 threads....which one do I choose. OBAMA tell me which one to choose!!!!


In all seriousness though, wont this just turn into that one in all due time?

[Purple Haize]

No.

[LUconn]

This thread will fail because nobody is talking about the topic. I really don't know if it can recover. Maybe if we get a 4everfsu post with a link and no additional comments, it will get back on track.

[RubberMallet]

what kind of abag holds 5 million dollars to charities hostage unless he gets this that and the other?

[Hold My Own]

The same kind that only give $100 bucks to charity when they make hundreds of thousands (Joe Biden)

[Humble_Opinion]

what kind of abag holds 5 million dollars to charities hostage unless he gets this that and the other?

Come onnnn you know he's going to give it regardless. It is almost tax season after all.

Back to the thread topic.

I'm going to say Romney picks up the three key swing states in FL, VA and OH plus CO, NH and IA. Obama will keep ahold of PA, MI, WI and NV by the slimmest of margins. The score will therefore be Romney - 285 to Obama - 253. Popular vote will be Romney 50% to Obama 46.7%.