[Cider Jim]

Brian Roberts is finally back and batting lead-off again: last night he had 3 hits and an RBI.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orio ... 7019.story

[LUminary]

Watched Dylan Bundy pitch in Winston-Salem last night. He doesn't stink.

[Cider Jim]

Get your World Series tickets now: the Orioles had 3 players make the All Star team, and they just traded for Jim Thome.

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/a ... l&c_id=bal

[R i]

Over the last 10 games, no one has been worse.

[Cider Jim]

If you are old enough to remember Jim Palmer as a player, you'll love his speech when they unveiled his statue Saturday at Camden Yards: http://www.masnsports.com/index_medialo ... 1067616&p=

On this same website, Part 1 is where Palmer is intoduced by former players Dave Leonard and Ken Singleton.

[R i]

Dont look now, but its almost August, and we still have a chance.

[LUminary]

I thought the bottom fell out a week or so ago when we were playing poorly and then lost Hammel to the DL. But we're hanging in. Need to beat jbock's Rays this week.

[Chris Lang]

Two straight strong starts in a row from Hunter was a pleasant surprise, for sure.

Britton looks like he's coming around too after the DL stint. If the O's can add a middle-of-the-rotation guy at the deadline, they could hang until the end. That bullpen is sick.

[R i]

Britton looks legit. It was only one start, but his fastball command was great the other night. So many ground balls.

[Kolzilla41]

I think we need one more offensive piece too. I hear Hanley Ramirez is available so that is something worth looking at.

[jbock13]

I thought the bottom fell out a week or so ago when we were playing poorly and then lost Hammel to the DL. But we're hanging in. Need to beat jbock's Rays this week.

Don't bring it up

I know we're gonna get crushed. We can't even score 2 runs in a game.

[Cider Jim]

I guess the wild card is the best we can do, esp. since the Yanks just traded for Ichiro Suzuki.

[LUminary]

A winning season would almost seem like a World Series victory after so many lean years, but no reason not to be greedy at this point and hope for a wildcard. I don't know how it's figured, but the O's are given just a 10.5 percent chance of making the playoffs according to the standings page on ESPN. I guess it's mostly subjective, but whoever formulates that sure doesn't have much confidence that the playoff run will hold. And the negative run differential (worst in the AL East) still worries me but at least we're winning close games. Keep that up and we've got a shot. Better than 10 percent for sure.

[R i]

I was about to post about that low percentage that ESPN.com is giving the Os to make the playoffs. Seems Low. I mean arent the two teams below us in our division given a higher chance of making the palyoffs?

[adam42381]

ESPN uses projections from CoolStandings, which simulates the likely outcomes of 1 million seasons from the current date using a complex algorithm.

http://www.coolstandings.com/faq.asp?sn=2012#faq1

[NotAJerry]

I was about to post about that low percentage that ESPN.com is giving the Os to make the playoffs. Seems Low. I mean arent the two teams below us in our division given a higher chance of making the palyoffs?

One gigantic red alert for the O's is run differential. The record the O's currently have is extremely out of whack with the total scores. The only teams worse than Baltimore in the AL are Kansas City and Minnesota. The O's are the only team in MLB to have a negative run differential and a winning record.

I'm happy for the fans who continue to suffer through the Lucifer Angelos era, but that bubble will likely burst before the season is over.

[jbock13]

ESPN also takes into account that New York and Boston fans are all they care about, so they adjust their playoff chances numbers accordingly.

[adam42381]

ESPN also takes into account that New York and Boston fans are all they care about, so they adjust their playoff chances numbers accordingly.

Any chance your Rays get a sellout on Wiggles night?

[jbock13]

ESPN also takes into account that New York and Boston fans are all they care about, so they adjust their playoff chances numbers accordingly.

Any chance your Rays get a sellout on Wiggles night?

It's an annual tradition!

[thepostman]

hahahahahaha

A sellout??? In St Pete!!!!??In the middle of the week???Against the O's?????

That is a good one

[jbock13]

hahahahahaha

A sellout??? In St Pete!!!!??In the middle of the week???Against the O's?????

That is a good one

It's on a Sunday so it could be a decent crowd. We might get over 20,000!

[thepostman]

Oh, i thought you guys were talking about tonight. I should read.

If it is in the afternoon they probably will pull 20,000. The area loves the Rays, but not enough to go to St Pete. I don't blame them.

[R i]

ESPN uses projections from CoolStandings, which simulates the likely outcomes of 1 million seasons from the current date using a complex algorithm.

http://www.coolstandings.com/faq.asp?sn=2012#faq1

The Bill James Pythagorean theorem states that a baseball team's winning percentage can be estimated using the following formula:

PCT = (RS^2)/(RS^2 + RA^2)

where RS is runs scored, and RA is runs against. This formula works because baseball scores roughly follow a Rayleigh distribution. Over time, the formula has been tweaked using empirical evidence (i.e. actual game scores). For instance, instead of using an exponent value of 2, a value of 1.83 is often used.

To determine the chance team A has of beating team B, coolstandings.com estimates the expected number of runs that team A will score against team B, and the expected number of runs that team B will score against team A. These numbers are estimated using team statistics (such as RS and RA),

This is what coolstandings uses as a major factor in their predictions. Seems that this years Orioles team isnt following a Rayleigh Distribution. Our record is much better than our runs scored or runs against indicates.

[LUminary]

Amazing season for the Orioles continues. Another one-run victory last night. The O's are 24-6 in one-run games, and have won their last 13 of those (the longest such streak in MLB since 1984). They're also 12-2 in extra-inning games.

[Kolzilla41]

4 games out of 1st with 35 games left (17h,18a). Not too far to think they could contend for the AL East Division title.