Here are the thoughts of somebody that has done a decent job the past year or so covering realignment from a UTSA (& sometimes Texas State) perspective. As a result, I am inclined to believe his sources are fairly legitimate.
San Antonio (TX) Express-News wrote:Your daily realignment speculation
Posted on 03/15/2012 by Dan McCarney
Had a few more interesting conversations with People Who Know over the past couple of days that brings UTSA’s future affiliation into a little bit more focus. Or muddies things even further, depending on how you look at it.
The Sun Belt Conference, under new commissioner Karl Benson, continues to be a much stronger possibility than the so-called Mountain West/Conference USA alliance. I was told yesterday that the notion of an unofficial invitation, as referenced in a recent report by CBS Sports, is grossly premature. But as was the case with the Western Athletic Conference, it doesn’t take a genius to review the landscape and whittle down the possibilities to a pretty short list, specifically UTSA, Georgia State, Charlotte, Louisiana Tech and Texas State.
And here is the meaty portion as far as we are concerned ...
A source told me yesterday that the Alliance has ruled out expanding to 24 teams, and will focus on either 18, 20 or 22. It’s widely assumed that UTEP will be switched from C-USA to the Mountain West group, which makes sense as there are far more viable candidates on the eastern side of the country. With one football-only member in Hawaii, the Alliance will very likely add another in the C-USA division to balance out the league.
Say the Alliance decides to go big at 22. UTEP slides over from C-USA, Utah State and San Jose State are plucked from the WAC, and there’s your Mountain West division comprising 10 full members, plus Hawaii in football only.
That would require four additions on the C-USA side, including one in football only. This is strictly educated guesswork, but I continue to believe that North Texas (based in a key Texas market), Louisiana Tech (strong competitive success) and Florida International (good market, based in the Eastern time zone) will be the top three choices.
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If his sources and postulations are correct, that would leave us on the outside looking in for the impending Spring or Summer Sun Belt & Alliance movements. But it would also force the WAC to either move forward with Eastern arrangement or fold. That could be our opportunity to move up with nearby allies.
Than again, I have heard from a number of folks who supposedly have good info that La Tech is not attractive to the Alliance unless absolutely necessary. So that could have some wrinkles.
There appears to be too much smoke right now coming from a smaller Alliance expansion to not believe there is some fire to the story. We really could have used a quick expansion to 24 to help our cause.