[LUconn]

and now that I've got that out of my system, I'm sure a road trip to a bowl game a few years down the road will take out some of that sting.

[Sly Fox]

The most important domino is San Diego State. If they decline the Big east then the whole Big East western expansion may be dying unless Air Force will get back in the discussions. Without the western expansion, the Big East would likely snare a couple of East Coast schools and we may not see the massive wave that is poised to come crashing down.

After that domino, we need to watch what Conference USA has to say. They reportedly have agreements from several schools already to slide into the gaps but they also will have to determine whether or not they want to continue their MWC alignment. Frankly I don't see that staying together. The MWC would be greatly downgraded and offer little of benefit to C-USA with little opportunity for its own expansion. We need C-USA to want to go big and/or the WAC to go crazy. I am hearing that UTSA & possible Texas State may never spend a day in the WAC and may already locked & loaded to a newly reorganized C-USA. If that is the case, the WAC has to get REALLY creative or they go out of business. Meanwhile the MAC & Sunbelt conferences have their own concerns. Both figure to be raided by C-USA. There are discussions that both the Sunbelt and MAC may go on preemptive strikes toward each other and top FCS options to beef up their lineups to try and convince their current members to stay put.

Confused yet? You will be if some of the C-USA & Sunbelt moves I have been hearing about come to reality. Things could start shaking in rapid-fire fashion since most of the schools involved have had a number of months now to pitch themselves and the leagues have had opportunities to make site visits.

As a result, there aren't too many individual dominoes to watch. It is more important to listen for key strategic messages from the conferences.

[R i]

LUconn. I feel the same. Like we lost during the Junior High game, we are about to be on the JV level. But all that matters is what we do when we are Varsity.

[R i]

The Big East should change its name to the Big DoesntMatterWhere. Start getting all the good midmajors they can get. BYU, Fresno, Houston, Sandiego State, Boise.. make that a western division. Combine those with an Eastern Division that would include, Cincy, Louiville, UCF, USF, ECU, so on.. One big Mid Major conference with an auto bid. East and West Division. That would make sense, and make money.

[Sly Fox]

With the exceptions of BYU, Fresno & ECU, that is exactly what is going down.

[bradyfan]

Sly -

Thanks for providing all of this information, and keeping us all calm while giving us insight to all of this. Would you be able to tell us the likelihood of these things happening? Everything ESPN reports is that the Big East is very unstable and many people there are very vocal about being against Boise going through with the move to the Big East. I think we all would agree that if Boise State backed out and went to the Big Ten or Big 12, the Big East's existence of a football conference may not have a long future.

[jcmanson]

Folks sad about us not making the playoffs, remember that 95% we still play in FCS in 2012.

If we announce by this summer our intentions to go FBS, we will not be playoff eligible in 2012 (see: Umass and Texas State this year.)

[R i]

Big South . I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Sun at the end of the tunnel.

[jbock13]

Please don't take this personally, but are we just speculating, or is there really a great chance we get picked by a conference to move up? I don't see where we could go.

[R i]

With the exceptions of BYU, Fresno & ECU, that is exactly what is going down.

BIG MidMajor
BIG Wherever
BIG Mediocre
BIG JV Squads
BIG Underdogs

[jbock13]

I don't see where we could go.

Your post was fine up until here. What does that mean? Isn't it abundantly clear where we could go?

Sun Belt, MAC, Conference USA, or WAC.

Yeah you're probably right I should just stay out of the conversation. I just don't see the dominos falling the way everyone else thinks they will.

[Sly Fox]

Two of the Top 7 in the current BCS Rankings are in that group. Frankly it looks fairly certain that the Big East western expansion is going to happen. There are details yet to be worked out. But frankly it is the mutual best interest of nearly all parties involved for this work.

And if we are headed to an FBS league, the last thing on my mind is going to be the FCS playoffs. Most of my Texas State friends didn't even care in the slightest. They were focused on getting ready for the next step.

[ballah09]

edit: looks like it was deleted. (probably not credible)

[RVAparks]

Seems like a lot of "Ifs" to say we'll likely be in the FBS by this summer.

[Sly Fox]

There are more moving parts already lines up in this deal than have been publicly announced. But you are correct that many variables continue to be in play. But at the same times, the dominoes appear poised to tumble very nicely for us.

[thepostman]

I want us to be FBS. I want my school to take the next step. The next step is a low-major conference like the sun belt conference. We would compete pretty quickly there. Not right away but it wouldn't take long.

I get the thought process of being concerned about moving up too soon, but I think the plans have been in place for several years which has been clear with the expanded stadium and the announced plans for more. You can't wait until the next time this kind of re-alignment happens simply because you never know if this kind of thing is going to happen again at this magnitude.

We shall see....

[RVAparks]

We'll see, I think the other variable not being discussed is other FCS schools and their possible intentions given a shake up. A LOT can happen and I don't share the same confidence that you do at this point.

But I do hope you're right. Being a Longwood and Liberty grad, I obviously watch conference realignment VERY closely and end up like this a lot:

[jcmanson]

The next step is a low-major conference like the sun belt conference. We would compete pretty quickly there. Not right away but it wouldn't take long.

We would compete right away. I don't see us with many losing seasons in the sunbelt even with our current roster.

Western Kentucky went 7-1 and finished 2nd in the sunbelt this year. They lost 44-16 to FCS non-playoff Indiana State.

[RVAparks]

The next step is a low-major conference like the sun belt conference. We would compete pretty quickly there. Not right away but it wouldn't take long.

We would compete right away. I don't see us with many losing seasons in the sunbelt even with our current roster.

I'm not a huge fan of RPI when it comes to football, but just for reference:

Arkansas State: 28th
UL-Lafayette: 61
FIU: 67
WKU: 71
North Texas: 105
UL-Monroe: 116
Liberty: 117
Troy State: 136
MTSU: 148
FAU: 157

I think we could compete in the conference rather quickly.

[Sly Fox]

Liberty moving up would likely be awesome news for the Lancers. It would probably open the door for them to finally get in the Big South.

Guys, it is my understanding that multiple conferences have been on our campus for a look-see. We have done everything within our power to be attractive to he FBS suitors. Now it is up to them to make the move.

And as I mentioned before, it is a fairly short list of potential FCS schools who have the means to make the step up to FBS. The number of FCS schools in a more enviable position than us could be counted on your fingers. And frankly I expect perhaps a dozen to be making the move up as a result of this realignment.

[RVAparks]

Liberty moving up would likely be awesome news for the Lancers. It would probably open the door for them to finally get in the Big South.

Yea it would definitely be great news. A real win-win for me, haha. I'd really prefer the Big South over the Atlantic Sun.

[TH Spangler]

Just think this could be LU in a couple of years .... http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/n ... ddycombowl

[jbock13]

Although I hope we would not be part of anything that has to do with godaddy... even if it's a bowl game for some of the crap they do.

[bluedevilflame]

Just think this could be LU in a couple of years .... http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/n ... ddycombowl

man oh man, i'd love to add that bowl win to our resume!

[TH Spangler]

That's where the Sun Belt champs going this year ..... not the most prestigious bowl .... but it's football in January, nationally televised, in HD.