[Sivart]

Just a little tidbit of information... Let's say that we do win out the rest of the season (which is a must for the playoffs), we'd be at 199-197-4 all time... So if we did get in the first round of the playoffs and win it would be our 200th win all time... 200th win, 1st playoff win... That couldn't be planned any better... Wouldn't miss that for the world!

[Sly Fox]

Actually the Saturday following Thanksgiving is a great time to attract people is the students are in a break. Outside of a couple of random NFL games and a sprinkling of college rivalry games (most of which have moved in recent years back to Thanksgiving & T+1 Friday for TV purposes) there really isn't much left. A lot of guys have shot their guns while their wives went shopping on Friday and are looking to get out of the house. I would guess that 8-10k would be very achievable. Unlike when I was in school and the student body was from more far-flung areas due to the influence of the OTGH, today's students tend to primarily be within reasonable driving distance. With proper promotion before they leave town, this could be done.

[BigAl57]

any idea when this will be updated? It is usually out by now each week

[SumItUp]

BigAl, I usually work on this over the weekend, but I was on a getaway trip with my wife. This week has been extremely busy. I may have a chance to finish up tonight.

[BigAl57]

No worries. God first, Family second, Football third. Look forward to it. thanks for all the hard work to keep it updated

[Rooster Cogburn]

BigAl, I usually work on this over the weekend, but I was on a getaway trip with my wife. This week has been extremely busy. I may have a chance to finish up tonight.

Totally Unacceptable!

[SumItUp]

After Week 8, 54 of the 106 FCS teams have been eliminated from consideration for an at-large bid. There are now 14 additional teams on the bubble that cannot lose a remaining D1 game. In the 2009 season, there were 27 teams that reached the 7 D1 win mark.

Bubble Teams (14) - Albany, Cal Poly, Central Arkansas, Drake, Georgia State, Holy Cross, McNeese State, Missouri State, Monmouth, Morehead State, Morgan State, Murray State, Northern Arizona, South Carolina State, South Dakota State, UC Davis
__________________________________________________

Eliminated in Week 8 - Coastal Carolina, Davidson, Gardner-Webb, Georgetown, Illinois State, Indiana State, Marist, Portland State, Rhode Island, Sacramento State, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee State, Texas State, Youngstown State

Eliminated in Week 7 - Austin Peay, Bryant, Campbell, Eastern Kentucky, Maine, Norfolk State, Samford, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, St. Francis (PA), Stony Brook, Virginia Military Institute, Western Carolina

Eliminated in Week 6 - Bucknell, Charleston Southern, Citadel, Delaware State, Elon, Fordham, Howard, Lafayette, Nicholls State, North Carolina Central, North Dakota, Northern Colorado, Sacred Heart, San Diego, Tennessee-Martin, Towson

Eliminated in Week 5 - Butler, Eastern Illinois, Idaho State, North Carolina A&T, Northwestern State, Presbyterian, Southern Utah, Tennessee Tech, Valparaiso

Eliminated in Week 4 - Lamar, Savannah State

__________________________________________________

Qualified (2) - Appalachian State, Jacksonville State

[BigAl57]

Sum,
Do you have a games remaining column somewhere in your calculations? In looking at this on the other blog you post it to I see that in the BSC we are the only team left with at large possibilities if we were not to win it outright. I see that JMU has 4 D1 wins and i think they only have 4 games left, which depending on the outcome of this weekend (a loss) would put them on the bubble. Am i interperting it correctly?

BTW- love this look at the possible teams and thanks for all your work on this.

[SumItUp]

Sum,
Do you have a games remaining column somewhere in your calculations?

If you take a look at the blog HERE, there is a column for D1 games remaining. I did not include that column last week. I deleted it by accident.

[SumItUp]

After Week 9, 63 of the 106 FCS teams have been eliminated from consideration for an at-large bid. There are now 16 additional teams on the bubble that cannot lose a remaining D1 game. In the 2009 season, there were 27 teams that reached the 7 D1 win mark. 7 Teams have reached the 7 D1 wins so far this season with 3 weeks to play.

Bubble Teams (16) - Cal Poly, Central Arkansas, Colgate, Drake, Duquesne, Furman, Georgia Southern, Holy Cross, James Madison, McNeese State, Missouri State, Montana, Richmond, Sam Houston State, South Carolina State, Wagner

__________________________________________________

Eliminated in Week 9 - Albany, Georgia State, Monmouth, Morehead State, Morgan State, Murray State, Northern Arizona, South Dakota State, UC Davis

Eliminated in Week 8 - Coastal Carolina, Davidson, Gardner-Webb, Georgetown, Illinois State, Indiana State, Marist, Portland State, Rhode Island, Sacramento State, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee State, Texas State, Youngstown State

Eliminated in Week 7 - Austin Peay, Bryant, Campbell, Eastern Kentucky, Maine, Norfolk State, Samford, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, St. Francis (PA), Stony Brook, Virginia Military Institute, Western Carolina

Eliminated in Week 6- Bucknell, Charleston Southern, Citadel, Delaware State, Elon, Fordham, Howard, Lafayette, Nicholls State, North Carolina Central, North Dakota, Northern Colorado, Sacred Heart, San Diego, Tennessee-Martin, Towson

Eliminated in Week 5 - Butler, Eastern Illinois, Idaho State, North Carolina A&T, Northwestern State, Presbyterian, Southern Utah, Tennessee Tech, Valparaiso

Eliminated in Week 4 - Lamar, Savannah State

__________________________________________________

Qualified (7) - Appalachian State, Bethune-Cookman, Dayton, Jacksonville, Jacksonville State, Robert Morris, Southeast Missouri State

[SumItUp]

A few thoughts and questions:

1. It appears there may be less teams that reach the 7 D1 win mark this year compared to 2009. At this point, I think any team with 7 D1 wins from the CAA, Big Sky or MVFC will be in the playoffs. Will the committee select an at-large from the NEC or MEAC? If Cal Poly wins their remaining games (and Montana is eliminated from the playoffs), does Cal Poly have the resume to go to the playoffs? Is it possible that the Pioneer League could send either Jacksonville or Dayton to the playoffs? Will the playoff committee select a 6-win team this year? I don't think they will, but it is possible.

2. The tension is not as high this year because the Big South champion automatically qualifies for the playoffs. If both teams continue to do what is expected, the championship will be played at Williams Stadium on November 20th. During my morning workout, I decided to watch the first half of the Stony Brook vs. Coastal Carolina game that I recorded a few weeks ago. This is the second SB game that I viewed this year. This will be a very good game and I would guess that Liberty will be favored by 3-7 points. It will not be a cakewalk and it makes me nervous as a fan.

3. Liberty goes to playoffs as an at-large? It almost makes me throw up in the back of my mouth to say this, but if we were to lose the final game to SB, Liberty probably will be selected as an at-large participant. Before you react to this emotionally, please consider (a) the resume of a 2010 LU squad (8-3) vs. 2009 LU squad (7-3), (b) addition of 2 at-large spots for 2010 playoffs over 2009, and (c) state of the qualified 7 D1 candidates for 2010.

4. This is a year for the LU football team to accomplish multiple milestones. As an FCS participant, these are "my" goals for the program.
a. Participate in the playoffs
b. Host a playoff game
c. Win a playoff game
d. Go deep into the playoffs and win multiple games
e. Play for a national championship
f. Win a national championship
I prefer to host a first round game rather than receive a bye (unlikely) and go play somewhere else for the first playoff game. I don't like to make predictions about games as I prefer to watch the games played out, but I think Liberty has a team that can win multiple playoff games this year. I have recorded and watched (a few unwatched) every FCS game that has been available on DirecTV. Usually, it is 5-8 games per week. Liberty can play with and beat any FCS team in the country. The Big South Conference is not a tough conference, but it has allowed the coaches to work on improving areas that were of concern earlier in the season.

5. 2011-12 is supposed to be a special season. This year is not finished yet.

[jcmanson]

Great post.

I was looking through the list of likely at-large candidates and the pickings are slim. It looks like the last 1 or 2 spots will be given to either Dayton, Jacksonville, Cal Poly, MEAC runner-up, NEC runner-up or a team with <7 D1 wins.

We’d have a chance at an at-large but our GPI is so low. We haven’t beaten anyone. I’d hate to leave that in the committee’s hands.

A lot of people began to write SBU off after the Laffy game, but just as I’ve expected they’ve come ready to play in conference season. Being at home, I don’t see us losing.

Good list of goals. Looks about right. I’d love to host a playoff game in the opening round and win. That would kill a couple birds with one stone (making playoffs, hosting a game, winning a game). We’d then play a top 4 team on the road. Most would expect us to lose by multiple scores, but I think we’d keep it close and it wouldn’t be decided until the 4th quarter. This would gain us some respect and a lot of confidence heading into next year.

[SumItUp]

7 Teams have reached 7 D1 wins and 38 more teams still have an opportunity. I added a page with the remaining 38 teams and their schedule during the last 3 weeks of the season. http://footballfcsstyle.blogspot.com/20 ... -wins.html
-A "Bubble" team can not lose another game and reach 7 D1 wins.
-A team with "Plus 1" status can afford to lose one more D1 game and reach 7 D1 wins.
-A team with "Plus 2" status can afford to lose two more D1 games and reach 7 D1 wins.

[TDDance234]

Thanks for doing this, SumItUp. Interesting to read each week.

[BigAl57]

Looks like a lot of bubbles are going to pop this weekend

great stuff Sum

[kuntryboimike]

Article from TSN:

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - As a former Ivy Leaguer at Princeton, Damani Leech knows a thing or two about pulling an all-nighter.

Fortunately for the NCAA's director of baseball and football since 2003, he will get some shut-eye late Saturday, Nov. 20 and early Sunday, Nov. 21. There just won't be time for much of it considering the weekend's importance.

The selection of the Football Championship Subdivision's expanded playoff field - up from 16 to 20 teams - will be conducted on Nov. 20/21 before being announced on Nov. 21 during a 30-minute selection show on ESPNU, beginning at 10 a.m.

Leech isn't part of the selection committee - it is composed of one athletic director from all 11 conferences that are eligible for and applied for automatic qualification to this year's playoffs - but he will be there almost every step of the way serving as a liaison from the NCAA.

This year's playoffs have attracted added attention because the field has expanded for the first time since 1987, with automatic bids going to the Big South and Northeast Conferences, and two more bids going to at-large selections.

The larger playoffs will have four first-round matchups on Nov. 27, with 12 teams getting byes until the second round on Dec. 4.

Also new is the championship site, Pizza Hut Park in Frisco, Texas, which replaces Finley Stadium in Chattanooga, Tenn., which hosted the game for the last 13 years.

Instead of the championship game being played one week after the semifinals, there will be a three-week gap before the Jan. 7 title game. Pizza Hut Park, home to FC Dallas of Major League Soccer, will host each of the next three championships.

In Five-a-Side - In the Huddle's monthly feature of "five questions, five answers" with an influential person in the FCS - Leech discusses the FCS playoffs, including the selection of the larger field. . Let's kick off:

TSN: Obviously, the championship game is three weeks later than usual. What kind of buildup is the NCAA expecting?

DL: We're pretty positive (about) the championship game this year as a result of the bracket growth and then the resulting change in date for the championship, particularly because of that three-week gap that we're going to have between the semifinals and the championship game. So unlike any other year, those teams and their fans are really going to have an opportunity to gear up and plan on descending on Frisco, Texas, for the championship game in a way that they haven't in the past. You talk to some of the teams that played before and it's really just been a fire drill for them after winning a semifinal game. Trying to figure out how to get hundreds, if not thousands, of people to Chattanooga within a four, or five-day period is not easy to do. So now that we have this time, it's going to be better for the teams, we're going to be able to do more from a local promotion standpoint, focusing on those two teams that are coming to town and educating fans about those two teams. When the teams get there, making them really feel special and feel good about their experience because they're going to see a lot more of their own photos and their own logos around the city and throughout the venue in a way that they haven't before because of time.

TSN: The NCAA announces five seeds for the playoffs. Does the NCAA selection committee actually seed the teams 1 through 20, or does it use tiers when it comes to seeding, or does it just look for regional matchups?

DL: In terms of selecting teams we're going to select the 10 best teams in the country. So 10 will be selected via automatic qualification and the next 10 will be deemed by the committee to be the 10 best teams in the country. So once we have that group of 20, then we'll go through the process of deciding of that group of 20 who are the five best in the country and then ranking them according to seeds 1 through 5.

The 12 best teams of the 20 will receive a first-round bye and the remaining eight teams will play a first-round game. They won't have a number attached to them. In the bracket, they won't be seeded in any way. But in effect they will be differentiated.

TSN: How much easier is the process now that there are two more at-large bids?

DL: I don't know if it will be easier. As a staff, we just went through a bit of a mock selection to prepare for the nuances of the process and make sure we were clear on how the meeting will flow. We went through it and I don't think it will be easier, I think what you'll find is more teams that look a lot alike when you get down to deciding who that ninth and 10th at-large teams should be. It's sort of like that triangle in the further you move down towards the base the more teams begin to look a lot alike with three and four losses, and one or no common opponent. I think the committee is going to find that process more difficult, not easier.

TSN: When you consider travel expenses and other expenses, a lot of FCS schools sometimes struggle to make money off the playoff games. How can you improve this situation?

DL: The goal of the championship is not to find ways for our institutions or the NCAA to make money off of championship participation. In fact, as an association, this isn't a championship that makes a profit, so to speak. We don't bring in more revenue that we expend. A lot of expenses are tied up in transportation and trying to fly 130-person travel parties across the country in some cases, and that adds up. We're certainly very aware from the feedback we've gotten from our member institutions that hosting a championship game is by no means a financial windfall and in some cases, depending on how teams spend money the further they go into the playoffs, it gets fairly expensive for them. We're aware of that. However, there's not a whole lot we can do about it. Again, as I said, the revenues that are being generated are being used to offset the expenses for transportation and per diem for those visiting teams.

TSN: Is a 24-team playoff inevitable?

DL: I wouldn't say inevitable. It's certainly something that's been on the table for discussion purposes before. It's what was recommended when we ended up with a 20-team bracket. It's what was actually recommended but was not supported. And I know it's something that coaches and some conferences are still supportive of, but, again, it's still something that we've got to figure out a way financially to make work given the cost of just going to a 20-team bracket. The estimated budget impact is going to be anywhere from half a million to three-quarters of a million dollars to go from a 16-team to a 20- team bracket.

[jimflamesfan]

If LU wins this week against Gardner Webb, and Coastal Carolina loses at VMI, that would eliminate Coastal.

[SumItUp]

I will be traveling to Cuba this week and will not be updating this thread after this weekend's games.

[BigAl57]

Be Safe. Look forward to the update in 2 weeks

[SumItUp]

After Week 10, 68 of the 106 FCS teams have been eliminated from consideration for an at-large bid. There are now 16 additional teams on the bubble that cannot lose a remaining D1 game. In the 2009 season, there were 27 teams that reached the 7 D1 win mark. 14 Teams have reached 7 D1 wins so far this season with 2 weeks to play.

Bubble Teams (16) - Cal Poly, Central Arkansas, Central Connecticut State, Colgate, Duquesne, Furman, Georgia Southern, Hampton, McNeese State, Montana, Richmond, New Hampshire, Richmond, South Carolina State, Wagner, Weber State
__________________________________________________

Eliminated in Week 10 - Drake, Holy Cross, James Madison, Missouri State, Sam Houston State

Eliminated in Week 9 - Albany, Georgia State, Monmouth, Morehead State, Morgan State, Murray State, Northern Arizona, South Dakota State, UC Davis

Eliminated in Week 8 - Coastal Carolina, Davidson, Gardner-Webb, Georgetown, Illinois State, Indiana State, Marist, Portland State, Rhode Island, Sacramento State, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee State, Texas State, Youngstown State

Eliminated in Week 7 - Austin Peay, Bryant, Campbell, Eastern Kentucky, Maine, Norfolk State, Samford, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, St. Francis (PA), Stony Brook, Virginia Military Institute, Western Carolina

Eliminated in Week 6 - Bucknell, Charleston Southern, Citadel, Delaware State, Elon, Fordham, Howard, Lafayette, Nicholls State, North Carolina Central, North Dakota, Northern Colorado, Sacred Heart, San Diego, Tennessee-Martin, Towson

Eliminated in Week 5 - Butler, Eastern Illinois, Idaho State, North Carolina A&T, Northwestern State, Presbyterian, Southern Utah, Tennessee Tech, Valparaiso

Eliminated in Week 4 - Lamar, Savannah State

__________________________________________________

Qualified (14) - Appalachian State, Bethune-Cookman, Dayton, Delaware, Jacksonville, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Lehigh, Montana State, Robert Morris, Southeast Missouri State, Stephen F. Austin, William & Mary, Wofford

[SumItUp]

After Week 11, only one week remains. 73 of the 106 FCS teams have been eliminated from consideration for an at-large bid. There are now 14 additional teams on the bubble that cannot lose their last game next week. In the 2009
season, there were 27 teams that reached the 7 D1 win mark. 19 Teams have reached 7 D1 wins so far this season with one week to play.

Bubble Teams (14) - Central Connecticut State, Chattanooga, Colgate, Duquesne, Georgia Southern, Massachusetts,
McNeese State, Montana, New Hampshire, Richmond, South Carolina State, Villanova, Weber State, Western Illinois
__________________________________________________

Eliminated in Week 11 - Cal Poly, Central Arkansas, Furman, Hampton, Wagner

Eliminated in Week 10 - Drake, Holy Cross, James Madison, Missouri State, Sam Houston State

Eliminated in Week 9 - Albany, Georgia State, Monmouth, Morehead State, Morgan State, Murray State, Northern
Arizona, South Dakota State, UC Davis

Eliminated in Week 8 - Coastal Carolina, Davidson, Gardner-Webb, Georgetown, Illinois State, Indiana State, Marist,
Portland State, Rhode Island, Sacramento State, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee State, Texas State, Youngstown
State

Eliminated in Week 7 - Austin Peay, Bryant, Campbell, Eastern Kentucky, Maine, Norfolk State, Samford, South Dakota,
Southern Illinois, St. Francis (PA), Stony Brook, Virginia Military Institute, Western Carolina

Eliminated in Week 6 - Bucknell, Charleston Southern, Citadel, Delaware State, Elon, Fordham, Howard, Lafayette,
Nicholls State, North Carolina Central, North Dakota, Northern Colorado, Sacred Heart, San Diego, Tennessee-Martin,
Towson

Eliminated in Week 5 - Butler, Eastern Illinois, Idaho State, North Carolina A&T, Northwestern State, Presbyterian,
Southern Utah, Tennessee Tech, Valparaiso

Eliminated in Week 4 - Lamar, Savannah State

__________________________________________________

Qualified (19) - Appalachian State, Bethune-Cookman, Dayton, Delaware, Eastern Washington, Jacksonville, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, Liberty, Montana State, North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Old Dominion, Robert Morris, Southeast Missouri State, Stephen F. Austin, William & Mary, Wofford

[ToTheLeft]

As far as I've heard, McNeese CANNOT get to 7 DI wins since Lamar is a non-counter as a first year program.

[SumItUp]

Games for Bubble teams in the last week of the season

Central Connecticut State - St. Francis
Chattanooga - @Wofford
Colgate - @Fordham
Duquesne - @Bryant
Georgia Southern - @Furman
Massachusetts - @Rhode Island
McNeese State - @Central Arkansas
Montana - Montana State
New Hampshire - Towson
Richmond - @William & Mary
South Carolina State - @North Carolina A&T
Villanova - @Delaware
Weber State - @Texas Tech
Western Illinois - Northern Iowa

McNeese State should not be included in the Bubble teams because their 6 D1 wins include a 30-27 win over non-qualifying Lamar. I did not separate the Lamar victories from other teams throughout the year.

[ToTheLeft]

Games for Bubble teams in the last week of the season

Central Connecticut State - St. Francis
Chattanooga - @Wofford
Colgate - @Fordham
Duquesne - @Bryant
Georgia Southern - @Furman
Massachusetts - @Rhode Island
McNeese State - @Central Arkansas
Montana - Montana State
New Hampshire - Towson
Richmond - @William & Mary
South Carolina State - @North Carolina A&T
Villanova - @Delaware
Weber State - @Texas Tech
Western Illinois - Northern Iowa

McNeese State should not be included in the Bubble teams because their 6 D1 wins include a 30-27 win over non-qualifying Lamar. I did not separate the Lamar victories from other teams throughout the year.

McNeese could still burst the bubble if they win and SFA loses, as SFA will likely get an at-large and McNeese would take the Southland AQ.

[SumItUp]

As far as I've heard, McNeese CANNOT get to 7 DI wins since Lamar is a non-counter as a first year program.

You're correct. I just left it in there because I have kept track of wins that way all season. They are the only team that is affected by this. Stephen F. Austin still reaches 7 D1 wins without counting their victory over Lamar.