[From the class of 09]

Well the first domino has fallen as orangebloods via ESPN is reporting that Nebraska has accepted an offer to the Big10. Texas and T A&M have a meeting tomorrow. It looks like its started

[PAmedic]

did you mean "expected " or "accepted"?

[LUconn]

orangebloods also just paraphrased Texas as pretty much saying the Big 12 is done.

[SumItUp]

Some people are probably getting pretty nervous in Rock Chalk country. The Jayhawks appear to be the child without the invite.

[LUconn]

Oh, Kansas is essentially a midmajor at this point, as insane as that sounds. How long does Self stick around?

[JK37]

Oh, Kansas is essentially a midmajor at this point, as insane as that sounds. How long does Self stick around?

Mid-major in bball is a far cry from the same in football. If they become another Gonzaga or Memphis, they're still very relevant. And, they've gotten by on no football tradition up to this point.

[LUconn]

Well, I'm not sure we have any history to go on. Has a good team from a power conference ever dropped down a level? The only team I can think of in a somewhat similar situation, wasn't really good at all in Temple. And they were football only so it doesn't really match up anyway. If KU wants to keep playing FBS football, which you assume they would, they'd have to go CUSA or MWC. I mean, I guess there's a few examples of teams from those leagues doing well in hoops and they've already got everything in place. Though on the other hand they'll also be getting less money from their new lame conference. Does Self want to put up with such uncertainty? I really think it'd be a toss up what happens to them which is a far cry from the top 5 basketball program that they are now.

[SumItUp]

I have not heard of any expansion talk from the SEC, but could Kansas be a future addition? Geographically, it is only 250 miles from the University of Arkansas.

[JK37]

I have not heard of any expansion talk from the SEC, but could Kansas be a future addition? Geographically, it is only 250 miles from the University of Arkansas.

Its a viable option if the SEC wants to expand, but numerous sources from within - commisioner, AD's, coaches, etc. - have been openly quoted as saying that expansion is not important to them. They're "comfortable" right now, they say.

[Sly Fox]

It is fun seeing you guys reference buddies of mine who are breaking much of the news. Chip Brown at Orangebloods was a longtime AP writer and covered college sports for the Dallas Morning News for a number of years. But as our own Scribe knows, layoffs have been brutal in the print biz and he's found a nice niche working for the Rivals site in Austin.

Yes, it appears the Big XII is dead. The last time a scenario like this went down was the old Southwest Conference. You think the Big XII will bring in Kyle to reign over the demise of the league for all time's sake? While Nebraska appears gone there really hasn't been strong info that Mizzou has or will be receiving an offer. I suspect they will accept instantly and it makes too much sense.

It certainly appears that the six teams from the Big XII merging with the Pac-10 will not include Baylor. The leftists in Berkley want nothing to do with the right-wing radicals in Waco. So Colorado appears to be holding that 6th spot.

The prevailing thought is that the MWC will invite the four Big XII leftovers along with Boise State. In case you ACC-loving guys hadn't noticed, the Mountain West is currently a superior league to either the ACC or Big East in football. Hoops has not been a strong suit but Kansas & K-State (and to a certain degree Baylor & Iowa State) would instantly give that league legitimate basketball credibility.

Now you can expect the SEC to enter the fray in order to help prepare their next TV deal and to bump up to 16 teams of their own. The ACC is ripe for the picking but who is most attractive? Everyone keeps talking about Georgia Tech & Clemson but neither delivers many more TV households. I would think Miami & FSU make more sense to lock up nearly all of the households in Florida's major markets.

Do the ACC & Big East get together to form a TV alliance or do the haves ditch the have nots in each league and band together? Frankly the scenarios all look awful for the ACC & Big East if the Big Ten & SEC come cherry-picking.

[SuperJon]

Frankly the scenarios all look awful for the ACC & Big East if the Big Ten & SEC come cherry-picking.

If you're talking football, yes.

However, most ACC and Big East fans are basketball fans first and football fans second, and that could be a freaking awesome basketball league.

[SuperJon]

For the fun of it, and because I have nothing better to do, here is my off the cuff, thinking out loud idea of what could happen:

Pac 16
Washington
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon State
California
Stanford
USC
UCLA
Arizona
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Colorado
This one seems to be the one we're most "sure" of.

Big 16
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Missouri
Notre Dame
Rutgers
Iowa State
I think Notre Dame will come around. Rutgers gets them into NY. Iowa State is thrown in with Iowa. They feel bad for Missouri and invite them as well. You could make a case for Pitt or Louisville being in here instead.

SEC
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami
This is the current setup with the decent southern football schools from the ACC. I could see Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida fighting that big time though.

Big East Coast Conference
UNC
Duke
NC State
Wake Forest
UVA
VT
Maryland
Boston College
WVU
Syracuse
UConn
Cincinnati
Louisville
Pitt
East Carolina
Memphis
This one's the biggest crap shoot of them all. Theoretically any of the Big East schools could go to the Big Ten. I threw in ECU and Memphis just to make it 16. The chances of this one happening like this are much less than the other three.

Mountain West
Air Force
BYU
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State
TCU
UNLV
Utah
Wyoming
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
This would probably be the fourth best football conference. Do they stay at 12 teams or try to get to the 14-16 mark and invite Hawaii, Montana, and maybe two others?

Conference USA
Houston
Rice
SMU
UTEP
Tulana
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
Marshall
Southern Miss
South Alabama
USF
Yeah, I'm just guessing now.

[flamesfilmguy]

A hire up in the Tech Athletic department informed me that FSU,Clemson,GT and Miami have already been contacted and invited to the SEC. GT is going to accept once its formal and public as of right now. so the SEC looks like you are right. as well as the Pac 16 you stated.

However here is what i think about the ACC and Big east.

The ACC is going to pull schools from the Big east and possibly elsewhere to fill a void. I'd guess members like WVU, Georgia State(if the ACC wants to keep their footprint in the state of Georgia. if not they go to the new conference USA/sunbelt conglomerate.) louisville, and maybe memphis. then you'll see the big east make up for it by adding schools from the conference usa like houston, rice and all the ones you mentioned. Troy will try to jump to the ACC as well.
as for the mountain west i'll agree with you there.

[Sly Fox]

I see you working, SJ. This is actually a pretty tough assignment. Couple of things that jump out to me is that the Big Ten has zero interest in Iowa State. It delivers nothing of value to them in a state where they already dominate the television marketplace. Missouri on the other hand has a great deal of value with two major TV markets in KC & St. Louis and natural rivalry with the Illini.

If you eliminate the Cyclones from the Big Ten, it leaves several good options on the East Coast to choose from such as Syracuse or Pitt.

The Mountain West has no interest in Hawaii. That place is a logistical nightmare and a major financial drain on all of the non-revenue sports. They take all four Big XII leftovers and Boise State to get to 14. Then they can decide who they want to steal from WAC or C-USA. Houston is the most attractive of the available options and they would fit in nicely with TCU & Baylor.

As for the SEC projections, I agree with the Florida schools all being in the same league together. But I just don't see the value of Clemson or Georgia Tech. Don't hate me for suggesting this, but I could see the SEC possibly reaching out to Chapel Hill. UNC could deliver a bunch of TV households in three Top-50 markets that currently don't sway heavily toward SEC viewing. For similar reasons I wouldn't be shocked if the SEC didn't give a strong look at Maryland. DC is a real prize for television networks.

As for the C-USA, I would expect the Texan leftovers to find their way back to the WAC. I see this becoming primarily a southeastern league that looks to steal a couple of Sunbelt & and top tier FCS schools to build out to 16 teams in order to continue to have a television package focused on their championship game.

The Sunbelt & MAC really don't have television deals that merit them overdoing themselves to get to 16 teams. I think they'll prefer to stay regionalized in order to keep costs down as much as possible.

[Sly Fox]

A hire up in the Tech Athletic department informed me that FSU,Clemson,GT and Miami have already been contacted and invited to the SEC. GT is going to accept once its formal and public as of right now.

I have to be honest and say that really surprises me. I'm sure the Jackets are giddy to be make that step up. I just don't see how this adds much value to the SEC. It certainly helps keep costs down but i don't think that is even on the radar for most SEC schools.

[SuperJon]

I completely forgot about Houston and Rice when I was looking at the MWC. Those two would make a bunch of sense in there.

As for Carolina and the SEC, TTL actually mentioned that to me earlier. I see your point, but I don't see it happening for a few reasons:

1) Carolina's not leaving Duke.
2) Carolina's driven by basketball, not football. The SEC doesn't bring much there.
3) Carolina's not leaving NC State.
4) Carolina's too egotistical to go to a league where they have absolutely no chance to be competitive in football. While football isn't the driving sport in Chapel Hill, they also have too much pride to get embarrassed every week.

[flamesfilmguy]

A hire up in the Tech Athletic department informed me that FSU,Clemson,GT and Miami have already been contacted and invited to the SEC. GT is going to accept once its formal and public as of right now.

I have to be honest and say that really surprises me. I'm sure the Jackets are giddy to be make that step up. I just don't see how this adds much value to the SEC. It certainly helps keep costs down but i don't think that is even on the radar for most SEC schools.

There are only 2 schools that will have huge problems with all this in the SEC. Alabama and Georgia. It benefits tech because the GT UGA game means more and Gives a better football label to a school who has just started to impress the nation in that sport on a consistent basis. thats the only reasoning i can think of. that and they know it will tick UGA off.

[flamesfilmguy]

I completely forgot about Houston and Rice when I was looking at the MWC. Those two would make a bunch of sense in there.

As for Carolina and the SEC, TTL actually mentioned that to me earlier. I see your point, but I don't see it happening for a few reasons:

1) Carolina's not leaving Duke.
2) Carolina's driven by basketball, not football. The SEC doesn't bring much there.
3) Carolina's not leaving NC State.
4) Carolina's too egotistical to go to a league where they have absolutely no chance to be competitive in football. While football isn't the driving sport in Chapel Hill, they also have too much pride to get embarrassed every week.

I'll add to that. The VA schools will not leave the NC schools. and that gives you 5 schools to work with in the ACC. I'm not saying GA state jumps straight to the ACC but if they want to remain in GA they will eventually. but i think its possible they expand north. maybe take on schools like syracuse and pitt?

[Sly Fox]

I agree on all points, SJ. Just as an outsider it makes sense for the SEC to look around and try to find the most attractive additions close to their footprint. And since there is ZERO chance Texas would ever consider joining the SEC, when they turn their eyes east & north the Tarheels have some appeal.

[Sly Fox]

A hire up in the Tech Athletic department informed me that FSU,Clemson,GT and Miami have already been contacted and invited to the SEC. GT is going to accept once its formal and public as of right now.

I have to be honest and say that really surprises me. I'm sure the Jackets are giddy to be make that step up. I just don't see how this adds much value to the SEC. It certainly helps keep costs down but i don't think that is even on the radar for most SEC schools.

There are only 2 schools that will have huge problems with all this in the SEC. Alabama and Georgia. It benefits tech because the GT UGA game means more and Gives a better football label to a school who has just started to impress the nation in that sport on a consistent basis. thats the only reasoning i can think of. that and they know it will tick UGA off.

Oh I agree wholeheartedly that this is awesome for GT. I just don't see the benefit for the league. It really brings very little to the table other than its proximity. That's no slight on the Ramblin' Wreck. It just is a statement of fact. Atlanta already is an SEC stronghold. Now Charlotte, the Triangle & the Triad on the other hand ....

[SuperJon]

It'd have to be a complete change in culture in North Carolina for football to be the driving force behind anyone other than maybe ECU or NC State, and even then State is a big time if on that.

North Carolina is a basketball state.
South Carolina is a football state.

[From the class of 09]

So if we assume that everything keeps falling and there ends up being at least a couple conferences with 16 teams what does this mean for the BCS Bowls? Will these mega conferences demand and get 2 auto BCS spots? You can assume that there will be at least 2 auto spots open after the dust settles. It’s also possible they try to expand the BCS to include a bowl like the Cotton or something to provide enough spots. Thoughts?

[ATrain]

Looks like the first domino is about to fall:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5268408

Nebraska to BigTen. No word on what Missouri is doing in that article. IF (note the big IF) all that happens is Nebraska makes the move to the BigTen, why wouldn't the Texas schools (Texas, Tech, A&M-Baylor doesn't appear to be material in this discussion) be satisfied with replacing them with a TCU, Utah or BYU? One of those (or two if Mizzou bolts) wouldn't completely fill the void, but it would maintain the football strength of the conference.

[JK37]

IF (note the big IF) all that happens is Nebraska makes the move to the BigTen, why wouldn't the Texas schools be satisfied with replacing them with a TCU, Utah or BYU? One of those (or two if Mizzou bolts) wouldn't completely fill the void, but it would maintain the football strength of the conference.

They'll have to choose between adding those schools, or joining up w/ current Pac-10 schools. My $$$ is on joining the Pac-10, which it appears could happen soon.

[From the class of 09]

Texas has been pretty clear that if Nebraska was gone so were they. But as we are seeing anything is possible.