[ALUmnus]

Okay, it's only three days away. First round on Thursday, second round on Friday, the rest over the weekend.

How do you think it's gonna go down? Seems like Bradford is more and more likely to be the first pick, but the Rams may be looking for a trade. With McNabb on board, the Redskins won't waste their first pick on Clausen (thank goodness), so Okung appears to be the logical selection. But now the Skins say they're taking trade calls for the pick.

Suh looks like the surest bet, but I've also read that Eric Berry may be the best player out of them all.

Here's the order:

1 St. Louis Rams
2 Detroit Lions
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 Washington Redskins
5 Kansas City Chiefs
6 Seattle Seahawks
7 Cleveland Browns
8 Oakland Raiders
9 Buffalo Bills
10 Jacksonville Jaguars
11 Denver Broncos
12 Miami Dolphins
13 San Francisco 49ers
14 Seattle Seahawks
15 New York Giants
16 Tennessee Titans
17 San Francisco 49ers
18 Pittsburgh Steelers
19 Atlanta Falcons
20 Houston Texans
21 Cincinnati Bengals
22 New England Patriots
23 Green Bay Packers
24 Philadelphia Eagles
25 Baltimore Ravens
26 Arizona Cardinals
27 Dallas Cowboys
28 San Diego Chargers
29 New York Jets
30 Minnesota Vikings
31 Indianapolis Colts
32 New Orleans Saints


Open draft discussion.....

[BJWilliams]

The Rams I think made it apparent they wanted a QB when they released Bulger so I wouldnt be surprised if Bradford was their pick...I would have liked to see them take Suh and maybe use their pick in the second on somebody like Colt McCoy.

[Schfourteenteen]

Tim Tebow is the best pick for the Rams.

[From the class of 09]

Tim Tebow is the best pick for the Rams.

[Schfourteenteen]

Someone before me had a typo saying the Rams need a WB. Tim Tebow is the best WB in the game.

[LUconn]

It's a good thing you posted this thread. As much as I've been following the draft, I had no idea that it didn't start on Saturday like it used to. Man I would have been mad.

[BJWilliams]

Someone before me had a typo saying the Rams need a WB. Tim Tebow is the best WB in the game.

That was me...I fixed it though...Tebow would be an interesting pickup but unless something drastic happens, the Rams will take Bradford and probably make him the franchise QB unless somebody gives them an absolutely mind blowing trade

[ALUmnus]

Yes, the Rams need a quarterback, but they also need a ton of other positions, except for RB and DL, so if you're not completely sold on Bradford being a star....trade the pick. For the Rams, the #1 pick would only warrant taking a QB (they've already got too much money wrapped up in the DL). If Bradford ain't your guy, get rid of it and take some grunts, WRs, and QB later.

[LUconn]

You can't trade the #1 pick anymore. The whole point system they use in the war room to determine what picks are worth, make it such that nobody will ever give you what the #1 pick is worth. On top of that, nobody wants the #1 pick. You're tying up an absurd amount of money in 1 player, who has a 50/50 chance of being good, and it's all based on the stupid slotting system that the Raiders seem to screw up for everybody, every year (and the following years). #1 is probably the worst spot to be drafting and every other team knows it.

[ALUmnus]

Unless you really really want the quarterback. And not every team is married to the point chart. There's always room to negotiate.

[Th3rd]

Tebow will have the best career out of all the quarterbacks in the draft... thats right i said it. Mel Kiper is an idiot to think any differently....

Tebow will most likely go to a team like NE or Indy where he has someone to learn the ropes from which will just make him better when he finally starts in 4-5 years

[From the class of 09]

#1 is probably the worst spot to be drafting and every other team knows it.

While I understand where your coming from you can't really say that drafting #1 is the worst. You can find talent at the top but you just need to be sure they are worth it. If you ignore the Raiders most teams at least get a starter out of the top picks.

[LUconn]

1990 Indianapolis Jeff George, QB, Illinois
1991 Dallas Russell Maryland, DT, Miami-FL
1992 Indianapolis Steve Emtman, DT, Washington
1993 New England Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State
1994 Cincinnati Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State
1995 Cincinnati Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State
1996 NY Jets Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC
1997 St. Louis Orlando Pace, OT, Ohio State
1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee
1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky
2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State
2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech
2002 Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State
2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB, USC
2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi
2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Utah
2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State
2007 Oakland JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
2008 Miami Jake Long, OT Miami
2009 Detroit Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia

There's some probowlers and some busts. It's a mixed bag and you won't pay nearly the premium at picks 2-5 and will most likely have the same odds of boom or bust.

[BJWilliams]

1990 Indianapolis Jeff George, QB, Illinois
1991 Dallas Russell Maryland, DT, Miami-FL
1992 Indianapolis Steve Emtman, DT, Washington
1993 New England Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State
1994 Cincinnati Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State
1995 Cincinnati Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State
1996 NY Jets Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC
1997 St. Louis Orlando Pace, OT, Ohio State
1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee
1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky
2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State
2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech
2002 Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State
2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB, USC
2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi
2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Utah
2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State
2007 Oakland JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
2008 Miami Jake Long, OT Miami
2009 Detroit Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia

There's some probowlers and some busts. It's a mixed bag and you won't pay nearly the premium at picks 2-5 and will most likely have the same odds of boom or bust.

I agree. Among the QBs George, Russell and Couch (and I guess you could say Smith) were busts...Carr Id be hard pressed to call him a bust because he was either on his back or running for his life in Houston. Palmer has been to a couple of Pro Bowls, both the Mannings have won Super Bowls and Michael Vick (well until the whole dogfighting mess) was doing pretty well too. Jury is still out on Stafford...he had moments last year where he showed potential. Among the D-line, Wilkinson, Brown and Emtman were busts, Williams got off to a slow start but he is turning out to be a very good pickup. Pace was a very serviceable lineman for the Rams until injuries got the better of him and Jake Long has been pretty decent in his first couple years. Carter was injured on his very first play and never really recovered. Keyshawn was a pretty good wideout and actually isnt half bad in the studio.

[ALUmnus]

Regarding the point chart for draft pick trading (quotes from George Allen):

http://blog.redskins.com/2010/04/19/how ... nfl-draft/

"You know, that point chart that whoever came up with some years ago is really a deterrent to trading. If you analyze that, it takes so many draft choices just to move a few slots somewhat."

The "whoever" that Allen is referring to was none other than then-Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson, who famously developed a chart assigning an absolute value to every spot in the draft. The idea, or so the story goes, was to have an internal means of figuring out what trades the team would or wouldn't make. Obviously, other teams valued their picks differently from the Cowboys (see: the Herschel Walker trade), and the chart was specific to Dallas. But, as coaches spread across the NFL, the value chart became ubiquitous ... and, as Allen notes, it renders the top few picks virtually untradeable.

The first pick (at 3000) is worth literally twice as much the seventh pick, and more than five times as much as the 32nd pick. But given the monetary investment a top-5 pick requires, few teams want to to mortgage draft picks into the deal as well, especially not as many as the value chart would require.

Which explains why Allen also noted that "Neither Mike nor myself has been a big point chart type of person, but that chart really has prevented a lot of people from making more moves on draft day."

It's easy to suggest just ignoring the chart, but there's an additional benefit to everyone in the league having the same approximate valuation of their picks: it speeds up trade talks.

[TDDance234]

I'll take a stab at the top-10. It's really a crap-shoot, though. My hope is that the Rams somehow screw this up and don't take Bradford and he falls to the 'Skins at 4, with some team offering the farm to move up and take him.

1 St. Louis Rams -- Sam Bradford, QB
2 Detroit Lions -- Fhjiojgioheoi Suh, DT
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Gerald McCoy, DT
4 Washington Redskins -- Russell Okung, OT
5 Kansas City Chiefs -- Brad Balaga, OT
6 Seattle Seahawks -- Eric Berry, S
7 Cleveland Browns -- CJ Spillar, RB
8 Oakland Raiders -- Jimmy Clausen, QB
9 Buffalo Bills -- Trent Williams, OT
10 Jacksonville Jaguars -- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE

[BJWilliams]

If Clausen isnt picked up by the Browns at 7 he may end up falling to the middle or latter part of the first round. Even though he's a bust, Al Davis has some sort of creepy man crush on JaMarcus Russell (even though Cable doesnt think he really is the guy who can take them anywhere)

[From the class of 09]

If Clausen isnt picked up by the Browns at 7 he may end up falling to the middle or latter part of the first round. Even though he's a bust, Al Davis has some sort of creepy man crush on JaMarcus Russell (even though Cable doesnt think he really is the guy who can take them anywhere)

You just identified the problem with the Raiders

[LibertyJoe]

If Jimmy Clausen is sitting there in the middle round do you think the seahawks might take him?

[BJWilliams]

Well with the loss of Seneca Wallace that is a possibility so that they have a quality backup to Hasselbeck (and considering his health woes the last few seasons that would be a valuable thing to have)

[Rocketfan]

Well with the loss of Seneca Wallace that is a possibility so that they have a quality backup to Hasselbeck (and considering his health woes the last few seasons that would be a valuable thing to have)

Do your research...the hawks already traded a third round pick for Charlie Whitehurst. Thats the guy of the future or you don't mortgage a pick like that and sign him to a 2 year,10 million dollar contract.

[ALUmnus]

Well, the Rams just traded one of their top defensive lineman (who was their 2007 first rd pick) to the Redskins. So now with Adam Carriker gone, I'd say it becomes very possible that they go after one of the two DE's with the first pick.

[ALUmnus]

Remember when trades basically didn't exist in the NFL? In the last couple years, everything seems to have changed. It makes things much more fun to watch in the offseason, though.

Now, when will the trading deadline start to actually mean something?

[LUconn]

The schedules came out last night. All of the week 17 games are divisional games. Pretty decent solution to making it harder for a team to clinch early and sit their starters. It would have been a better solution to make it divisional games the last 3 weeks. That would have been intense but maybe too intense right before a team needs to start thinking about the playoffs.

[LUconn]

So the Steelers are wants to deal Roethlisraper for a top 10 pick. A few of those top 10 picks need a QB. Do they pull the trigger? Probably not.