[ToTheLeft]

The main point is that we don't have many good wins, but the reason we're in this discussion is that no one else does either except the CAA teams that beat each other.

[ToTheLeft]

Ah, I re-read your post and I just caught that. Sorry, haha.

[Sly Fox]

Chuck Burton of the CSN Way has Lafayette getting in as an at large ahead us in his latest projections.

[Chris Lang]

He either:

1. Has Liberty losing one of its final three games.

or

2. Didn't look at the schedules and see that Liberty beat Lafayette in Easton.

That's the only explanation I can think of.

[Sivart]

Wow that's weird.. I dont know how someone can over look the sole loss of the year? He must have us loosing to SB or something... that or he just over looked us, which seems to happen more often then we would like...

[ToTheLeft]

He either:

1. Has Liberty losing one of its final three games.

or

2. Didn't look at the schedules and see that Liberty beat Lafayette in Easton.

That's the only explanation I can think of.

He has us as one of the last teams out tho, and with a loss there's no way we're in that category... He just didn't do much, if any, research on that pick.

[phoenix]

I'm not sure what he's thinking, because he mentions Liberty's win over Lafayette. He's gotta be thinking we lose to Stony Brook.

[coastalfan1]

if yall didnt have to play that d2 and played sav state instead and won, would yall be a lock for the playoffs if u win out?

[Sly Fox]

Trust us, we know.

[Rooster Cogburn]

Chuck Burton of the CSN Way has Lafayette getting in as an at large ahead us in his latest projections.

Loser! Hate to tell him he's wrong.

[Chris Lang]

Burning the midnight oil ...

http://www.mynewsadvance.com/index.php/ ... ions_11_8/

[jcmanson]

Burning the midnight oil ...

http://www.mynewsadvance.com/index.php/ ... ions_11_8/

Thanks Chris. You don't mention UMass under the CAA. What do you think of them? I'm assuming you have them losing another game?

[Cider Jim]

According to Lang, we're still not in:

Holy Cross/Lafayette at #1 Villanova
Northern Iowa at South Carolina State

South Dakota State at #4 Montana
Montana State at McNeese State

William & Mary at #3 Elon
Stephen F. Austin at Richmond

Eastern Illinois at #2 Southern Illinois
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

[jcmanson]

Yeah we still need some help.

Lafayette and JMU winning does nothing but help. 2 big games for these teams next week: JMU @ UMass & Lafayette @ Holy Cross. The Laffy/HC game is for the Patriot championship with the loser likely out of consideration for an at large. If JMU can beat UMass it will knock UMass out of at large consideration and be another good win for JMU.

Then outside of that we need a couple of teams to lose, the more the merrier:

Northern Iowa - not likely for them to lose again

SDSU - will more than likely lose to Minnesota, but their last regular season game is against Western Illinois. I doubt they lose, but if they do they are out

Montana St - Lang has them picked to beat Montana, and they could but we will be huge Griz fans the last game of the season

Weber St - they play NAU and Cal Poly, both are losable games, if they lose 1 they're out

NAU - an elimination game against weber st Saturday with the loser out, they also could lose to Eastern Washington the following week

Eastern Washington - 2 games left (@ SUU & @ NAU), if they lose one they're out

Texas St - need them to lose one game (McNeese St & Sam Houston St)

UMass & Delaware need to lose one more game. Delaware should lose @ Navy Saturday, and hopefully JMU will knock out UMass. If not Umass' last game is @ Hofstra

The more of this that happens the better our chances.

[JK37]

Holy Cross/Lafayette at #1 Villanova
Northern Iowa at South Carolina State

South Dakota State at #4 Montana
Montana State at McNeese State

William & Mary at #3 Elon
Stephen F. Austin at Richmond

Eastern Illinois at #2 Southern Illinois
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

Lang,

If Liberty gets in ahead of Northern Iowa, do they still play at SC State? (You can imagine why I'm asking...)

[Chris Lang]

UMass already has four losses, including one to a team that will finish no better than 6-5. I think a 7-4 team will have to have a superlative resume to get in, and the only 7-4 that will have such a resume would be Weber State. I think UMass is already done.

To answer your question, JK, if Liberty gets in, my guess would be that it gets sent to Richmond or Elon (if Elon is seeded). Really starting to think at 10-1 SC State will put together a really nice bid to host a game, and the Bulldogs have the attendance numbers to back that bid up.

[Schfourteenteen]

AUTOBIDS
(1)Big Sky: Montana
(2)Colonial: New Hampshire
(3)MEAC: South Carolina State
(4)Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
(5)Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
(6)Patriot: Holy Cross / Lafayette
(7)SoCon: Elon

(8)Southland – Four teams at 3-1, 2 games on November 14 will decide the conference. McNeese State vs Texas State, Stephen F. Austin vs SE Louisiana. Below is the outlook:

Winners----Champ----AQ?
McNeese State + Stephen F. Austin----Stephen F. Austin----McNeese State.
McNeese State + SE Louisiana----McNeese State----Stephen F. Austin
Texas State + Stephen F. Austin----Texas State----Stephen F. Austin
Texas State + SE Louisiana----SE Louisiana----Stephen F. Austin


At-Large Bids "Secured"
(9)Richmond IN
(10)Villanova IN
(11)William & Mary IN

If Each Team Wins Out

(12)South Dakota State - Need to win ONE against either Minnesota OR (1-8) Western Illinois

(13)Appalachian State - Would need to win ONE against either Elon OR Western Carolina

(14)Southland #2 - McNeese or SFA winning ONE game will get them in.


(15)Delaware - Needs to beat BOTH (8-1) Villanova AND FBS Navy

(16)Northern Iowa - Needs to beat BOTH (1-8) Western Illinois AND (5-4) Illinois State

Montana State - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Sacramento State AND (9-0) Montana

Eastern Washington - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Southern Utah AND (5-4) Northern Arizona AND HELP

Weber State - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Northern Arizona AND (4-5) Cal Poly AND HELP

Liberty - Needs to beat BOTH (5-4) Gardner Webb AND (5-4) Stony Brook AND HELP

[bigsmooth]

im glad all you guys keep us all in the know. a lot of free time??

[matshark]

(15)Northern Iowa - Needs to beat BOTH (1-8) Western Illinois AND (5-4) Illinois State

(16)Montana State - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Sacramento State AND (9-0) Montana State

Eastern Washington - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Southern Utah AND (5-4) Northern Arizona AND HELP

Weber State - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Northern Arizona AND (4-5) Cal Poly AND HELP

Liberty - Needs to beat BOTH (5-4) Gardner Webb AND (5-4) Stony Brook AND HELP
-------------------------------

so basically, UNI, MSU, EWU and Weber all need to lose 1 game and LU needs to win out.

[JK37]

(15)Northern Iowa - Needs to beat BOTH (1-8) Western Illinois AND (5-4) Illinois State

(16)Montana State - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Sacramento State AND (9-0) Montana State

Eastern Washington - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Southern Utah AND (5-4) Northern Arizona AND HELP

Weber State - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Northern Arizona AND (4-5) Cal Poly AND HELP

Liberty - Needs to beat BOTH (5-4) Gardner Webb AND (5-4) Stony Brook AND HELP
-------------------------------

so basically, UNI, MSU, EWU and Weber all need to lose 1 game and LU needs to win out.

UNI gets the 15th bid, yet is #6 in the latest Sagarin power rankings. Can anyone shed some light on why they aren't more of a lock right now...

[flamesfilmguy]

(15)Northern Iowa - Needs to beat BOTH (1-8) Western Illinois AND (5-4) Illinois State

(16)Montana State - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Sacramento State AND (9-0) Montana State

Eastern Washington - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Southern Utah AND (5-4) Northern Arizona AND HELP

Weber State - Needs to beat BOTH (4-5) Northern Arizona AND (4-5) Cal Poly AND HELP

Liberty - Needs to beat BOTH (5-4) Gardner Webb AND (5-4) Stony Brook AND HELP
-------------------------------

so basically, UNI, MSU, EWU and Weber all need to lose 1 game and LU needs to win out.

UNI gets the 15th bid, yet is #6 in the latest Sagarin power rankings. Can anyone shed some light on why they aren't more of a lock right now...

Lack of quality wins.

[JK37]

Lack of quality wins.

Not trying to make too big a deal of this, but then how are they 6th in a power rankings system?

[ToTheLeft]

Close loss to an Iowa team that is very, very highly rated.

[JK37]

Close loss to an Iowa team that is very, very highly rated.

Ok, now I see.

[Schfourteenteen]

AND

winning out puts them at 8-3, the invisible bar for Power Conferences to secure a spot in the playoffs. At 7-4 without a signature win, they are likely out due to better 7 win resumes(Montana State, EWU) along with the 8 and 9 win small conference teams(Liberty and FAMU).