[BJWilliams]

Greetings Flames Fans! Well Training camp is in full swing (although today is a rather wet day) and with three weeks until the opener in Morgantown , Im going to take a second and revisit my take on what the boys are facing this year

@WVU WVU is not the elite team they were a few years ago but they are still very VERY good. LU loses this one but if they can make it respectable that is good enough for me. 42 LU 24 0-1

vs. NC Central LU hasnt lost a home opener since Aug 31 2002 (23-3 vs Western Carolina which ironically was my freshman year) absolutely electric atmosphere...LU wins big LU 49-NCCU 7 1-1

@Lafayette This next two weeks really will tell just how we're going to do the rest of the year. LU hasnt done too well in road games but did go 2-0 in road games out of conference last year. I think the Flames take this one in a squeaker LU 28 LC 24 2-1

vs. JMU The Dukes are probably going to come into this one top 5 in the country (at worst top 10) This one is probably the biggest game we have all year and its the biggest home game we've had in a LONG time. Another electric atmosphere (and possibly a record crowd) stokes the Flames and they win in a big upset LU 34 JMU 31 3-1

vs. West Virginia Wesleyan LU hasnt lost to a DII or lower program at home since 1993. That isnt changing this time...LU in a huge rout LU 63 WVW 0 4-1

vs. Coastal Carolina Its Homecoming and LU will be feelin good. Flames give the alumni (and all the other fans in attendance) plenty to cheer about and another round of KFC for all! LU 56 CCU 14 5-1 1-0

@ Charleston Southern Theyre headed in the right direction but the Buc stops here LU 35 CSU 17 6-1 2-0

vs. Presbyterian The Blue Hose caught LU by surprise last year in Clinton, but they're in our house this time and there wont be any surprises this time LU 42 PC 0 7-1 3-0

vs. VMI Last time the Keydets came to LU, the FLames either set or NEARLY set a bunch of records on the offensive side. I think we could be in for another shootout LU 56 VMI 35 8-1 4-0

@ Gardner-Webb The boys from Boiling Spring got collared last time as LU clinched their first conference title. It wont be as dominating but LU sets up another Big South Championship game in the final week with a win LU 24 G-W 20 9-1 5-0

@ Stony Brook This one not only will decide the conference champion, but LU's playoff hopes will be riding on this game. Coach Rocco will have the boys ready to play and they nail down their 3rd straight title and first ever playoff bid with a dogfight of a win in NY LU 49 SBU 42 10-1 6-0

Alright folks discuss away. Do take into account the developments of the last few days into account.

[flames1971]

I would say 10-1, 6-0 with our only loss to West Virginia, just like you said, BJ.

[jcmanson]

all around

[BJWilliams]

haha...Im not a koolaid drinker (you should know that by now jc) I really seriously think this team could surprise a lot of people. I think JMU really is the last game we could legitimately lose (SB possibly but LU showed how they can handle their running game last season) so a win there and we may not lose the rest of the season.

[JK37]

8-3. Losses @ WVU, vs. JMU, and @ SB. It's a very solid team, and we should be pleased with 8 wins this year.

[LUconn]

man, you guys are homers. I'll admit that this team is very dangerous and will be extremely good at times, there's just too many staples gone. They probably won't be ready to take JMU, and don't forget the WTF game. They're common with a talented team still congealing. Heck even the veteran team last year had a WTF game at PC. I'd say we lose to JMU, SBU, and some other BSC team in a head scratcher. (and obviously WVU).

[Rocketfan]

haha...Im not a koolaid drinker (you should know that by now jc) I really seriously think this team could surprise a lot of people. I think JMU really is the last game we could legitimately lose (SB possibly but LU showed how they can handle their running game last season) so a win there and we may not lose the rest of the season.

your right your not a drinker....id consider you drunk...

[BJWilliams]

haha...Im not nor have I ever been a koolaid drinker...the JMU game (thought I pick that as an upset) probably will be the real swing game on the season. a win there and I really dont think LU loses the rest of the season. a close loss there wont doom the season (I still think LU wins out in conference play and beats WVW very soundly). a blowout loss...then I could see 3 losses maybe 4.

[jcmanson]

Why does everyone think we're going to beat Lafayette? The beat us down pretty good last year, and this year we have to go to their place.

I say we lose to WVU, JMU, Laffy, and SBU.

[RagingTireFire]

Dude, besides all the defense that no one on that breakdown is playing, you have us pitching two shutouts and picking two 40-point wins over conference opponents. You are drowning in the Kool-Aid.

[BJWilliams]

Point taken RTF. I do think that West Virginia Wesleyan we should shut them out. Presbyterian we should beat them pretty handily if we dont shut them out (a lot of those guys will no doubt remember the WTF game last year). The CCU score was based on the last time the Chants came to town (yes I know they have a VERY different QB from that game...whatever happened to him anyway?) On the plus side by picking such outlandish scores it bred discussion (which was not totally my motivation behind picking scores like that). Consider this also...the last time we played a Division I-A/FBS opponent (Toledo in 2007) we lost that game (very close). The next 5 games we outscored the opposition 239-82 and then won the first 6 games of last year by a combined score of 219-119. so over an 11 game stretch after losing to Toledo (until the loss to Lafayette which was a real job on our part) we outscored the opposition 458-201 AND won by at least 30 points 6 times and scored 30 or more points 10 of those 11 times (winning all 10). AFTER the Lafayette game LU outscored opponents 126-70, went 4-1, held the same team that BEAT LU 42-14 at their place to 3 POINTS and scored at least 30 points in 3 of those 5 games (winning all three). You dont think we CAN pitch two shutouts (LU had two last year) AND beat two conference teams by at least 40 points (LU did that once last year)? Oh and an additional statistical sidebar...in the last 23 games, LU has scored at least 30 points 18 times (going 16-2 with the losses coming to W&M in double overtime and Toledo...BOTH games we should have won)

[jcmanson]

Oh Beej:

2008 team:
Rashad Jennings
Brock Smith
Zach Terrell
Mike Godsil
Dominic Bolden
Jonathan Crawford
Nick Hursky... (need I go on)

2009 team:
none of the above

2 very different teams.

[LCA&LU Mom]

Re: Fan the Flames 2009 Outlook: Schedule
by LUconn » Wed Aug 12, 2009 2:18 pm
man, you guys are homers. I'll admit that this team is very dangerous and will be extremely good at times, there's just too many staples gone. They probably won't be ready to take JMU, and don't forget the WTF game. They're common with a talented team still congealing. Heck even the veteran team last year had a WTF game at PC. I'd say we lose to JMU, SBU, and some other BSC team in a head scratcher. (and obviously WVU).

I agree, 4 losses (WV, JMU, SB and fill-in-the-blank) It will be a PC.2008 or Elon.2007 similar situation. Below the Virginia border. 80+ degrees. Afternoon game. Either Charleston Southern or Gardner-Webb.

[Champion]

Tough call ... even with the position losses I think this team is just as good as last year. A very different team, but just as good. With that said, let's remember that last years team had extremely bad games against Lafayette and Presbyterian. They also won some close games against some bad to mediocre teams such as Coastal Carolina and Western Carolina. By the end of the season Youngstown State was considered a bad team with a 4-8 record. I think this team has a legitimate shot at 9-2 IF they don't have any "let down" games. Consistency is very important. Last years team wasn't the most consistant performer. If this years team is able to play consistantly all season then you could be looking at a 10-1 season. If not, 7-4 becomes a real possibility. Personaly ... I'm taking a few sips of the Koolade. I think this years team will be very good and more consistant than last years team.

[LUconn]

Oh Beej:

2008 team:
Rashad Jennings
Brock Smith
Zach Terrell
Mike Godsil
Dominic Bolden
Jonathan Crawford
Nick Hursky... (need I go on)

2009 team:
none of the above

2 very different teams.

On that same note, I thought Laffy lost a lot of starters.

[BJWilliams]

Oh Beej:

2008 team:
Rashad Jennings
Brock Smith
Zach Terrell
Mike Godsil
Dominic Bolden
Jonathan Crawford
Nick Hursky... (need I go on)

2009 team:
none of the above

2 very different teams.

I realize that jc...I mean every team loses important parts but the good ones can bring in new parts and the car will run just as good if not BETTER with the new parts as it did with the parts it lost.

[Champion]

Laffy has 14 returning starters and lost 10 ... Liberty is listed as having 11 starters returning and having lost 16.

[flames1971]

But......you never know what may happen. I have faith in Coach Rocco. Also, remember his first year taking us from 1-10 to 6-5? Yes, I know we have lost some good players, but I know that we have the talent, and I know Coach Rocco will use the talent we have to his best ability. Everone just needs to find their "niche" and give their best ability.

[coolhandluke]

8-3. Losses to West Virginia, JMU, and Lafayette. We start off the year 1-3 and everyone is scared, but we win out in Big South play, Big South CHAMPS again. But no playoffs this year.

As much as I'd like to drink the koolaid, I can't really predict that we are going to have a playoff type year when I don't know how everyone one is going to pan out. We are questionable at WR and have a big question mark at both QB and RB. I think our defense will be solid, but we just don't know what our offense is going to be like, so for that reason, I'm not drinking any koolaid this year.

Although, I hope I am wrong. If I am, and we make the playoffs this year, you guys can dump koolaid on my head.

[LUconn]

I think it's funny going undefeated in Big South play is not "drinking kool-aide." Our top 25 team couldn't even do that last year.

[jcmanson]

I think it's funny going undefeated in Big South play is not "drinking kool-aide." Our top 25 team couldn't even do that last year.

Yes they did.

[TDDance234]

I think it's funny going undefeated in Big South play is not "drinking kool-aide." Our top 25 team couldn't even do that last year.

Yes they did.

Regardless if it counted in conf. standings, a loss to PC is a conference loss.

[BJWilliams]

A follow up to my response to manson's post. I was at home doing some thinking last night after I got home and I couldnt help but think about jc's post where he mentioned all the really good talented guys we lost.

Ask yourself this question: What is the difference between an average team, a good team and a great team?

The way I see it, the difference is in how a team responds with new players (or coaches). In my opinion, the average teams will not necessarily get better (although they can and they will probably show improvement in some areas), but they may not necessarily get worse. They just kinda...stay where they are at. A lot of teams fall in that average category (in that 5-6 sometimes even 7 win category).

The good teams they could stay the same, but more than likely they will get better. There is marked improvement in many if not all areas and they win between Id say 7 and 9 games and maybe even 10 if the schedule is right. LU is getting into that good category. In I-AA/FCS terms, these are the teams who often are in the discussion for at large bids to the playoffs, sometimes even getting at large bids. They often are in that top 3 or 4 (maybe 5) teams in their conference too. In I-A/FBS terms, these are your teams that regularly get New Years Eve or New Years Day bowl games (and even win many times) but they are not quite at the level of competing for a national championship. Theyll even have a rebuilding year every so often but they always manage to do well.

The great teams however, when new coaches come in or when new players come in, they ONLY get better. These are the upper echelon teams in I-AA/FCS and I-A/FBS. These are the teams that ALWAYS go to the playoffs, and even get to the national championship (or win it). These are the teams that just getting to a New Year's Day bowl is a disappointment. There are not a lot of "great" teams in I-AA/FCS or I-A/FBS but they are there. App State is getting to the point of being a "great" team. Teams like Texas, Oklahoma, Florida and USC are "great" teams. To revert to D-III for sake of argument, Mount Union is a "great" team.

In summary, I do not think that we are going to lose three games (or four) simply on basis of us having lost a lot of starters and bringing in new players (or stepping up players on the depth chart). Now in counterpoint, it may not be safe to say we are going to simply roll over everybody (except WVU) because of past history. I simply think that LU is going to get better just as they have the last three years. Now does that mean they are a "great" team? Not yet. Can they be? Absolutely...

[Rocketfan]

Not read or acknowledged

[phoenix]

Games three and four are going to be the keys to our season, as far as team confidence and attitude go. "Good losses" (whatever the frack those are - have to ask the FCS Playoff folks next time I see them) or wins against Madison and Lafayette will do wonders for this young team's confidence. And I really think at this point the only team we may have trouble against in the Big South is going to be Stony Brook. And other conference losses I will consider a WTF loss (like Presby last year) -- and those are possible, but I'm not going to predict one; otherwise, they're not WTF losses anymore.

I figure a 9-2 season, with losses against West Virginia (oh, how I'd love to see an upset there, but ...) and either JMU or Lafayette. Close game against Stony Brook (probably a come from behind win in the closing minutes of the game). The only Big South team we'll blow away is possibly Presby (and that's as much out of revenge as anything else). Playoff chances depend on how well we do in our out of conference schedule - how close the JMU and Lafayette games are. I doubt we'll be there this year, though.