- August 1st, 2006, 12:34 am
#22869
Here are some further details on some of the developments you guys have been talking about in other threads:
Published July 31, 2006http://www.bizjournal.com/content/article.php?id=308
Growing pains in Lynchburg
By Catherine Chapman Mosley
Region 2000 is changing rapidly. Local businesses are growing; the population is increasing; and many national retailers are being attracted to the area because of the demographics. Among the important questions: where is the Hill City in the growth process, and can the pace be sustained?
"Over the last three years we have added approximately 6,000 (jobs) in the region," says Lee Cobb, executive director of Virginia's Region 2000 Partnership Economic Development Council. "It looks like the same could happen over the next three years-based on growth at Liberty University and a survey we conducted with 50 local companies-if there are enough qualified applicants. "There are several factors at play here," says Cobb. "The rapid growth at Liberty University; Areva is adding dozens and dozens of engineers; retirees find the region appealing because of the cost and quality of life."
Liberty University's growth is included in Lynchburg City's population numbers, and while the city has increased its number by 3,000 since the turn of the millennium, Liberty University's student population has grown 5,000 in that time, according to Jerry Falwell Jr., the Harvard-law educated vice-chancellor of Liberty University, son of the nationally known founder and a private developer.
"We have done $82.5 million in new construction [between LU and the million-square-foot Thomas Road Baptist Church) over the last 36 months," says Falwell, "and we have a lot planned."
In addition to emphasizing Liberty's distance learning program, the next big push in Lynchburg will be Campus North (the former Ericsson Building) and DeMoss Hall, the latter which has two intentionally unfinished floors comprised of 120,000 square feet each. Both buildings were donated, and Falwell predicts taking enrollment to 14,000 before "topping out." "After that, it will be more expensive to grow," says Falwell, revealing that Liberty now ranks as the largest private school in Virginia, the 43rd largest in the country and the largest evangelical private school in the country.
"Liberty has doubled from around 4,500 students in 2000 to 9,600 this fall and will continue to grow by about 1,200 students a year over the next few years," says Falwell. "Lynchburg College is growing, as well. In fact,ÿit is very possible that the Lynchburg areaÿwill haveÿa larger college student population than Charlottesvilleÿor Blacksburg by the year 2015." The Hill City is home to Sweet Briar College, Randolph-Macon Woman's College and Central Virginia Community College, in addition to Lynchburg College and Liberty.
Other population factors are at work here as well, and students aren't the only ones contributing to the region's growth.
"A lot of growth experienced in retail is coming from population growth in Bedford County," says Sue Montgomery, Bedford County's director of economic development, explaining the tax base needed for the retail to thrive.
"For the last two-and-a-half decades, Bedford County has seen the fastest growth in Region 2000 and the fastest this side of I-95 and the Golden Crescent (referring to the crescent formed from Northern Virginia down to Tidewater). Development follows rooftops/demographics."
Montgomery says Bedford County wants to see comparable commercial growth with its residential growth. It has been referred to as a "bedroom community" to Lynchburg and Roanoke for years, but now it is seeing good commercial growth near downtown Bedford and at Smith Mountain Lake.
The latter has seen dramatic growth, especially in Moneta. Three shopping centers and a multiplex theater are there now, and Montgomery mentions a planned development in downtown Moneta that will combine commercial and residential space.
Other mixed-use proposed developments scheduled for the greater Lynchburg area include Thomas Jefferson Crossings (U.S. 221 in Forest/Bedford County), Braxton Park (Timberlake Road in Campbell County), Cornerstone (Greenview Drive in Lynchburg) and Lakeside Center (Lakeside Drive/U.S..501 in Lynchburg).
* Thomas Jefferson Crossings comprises 140 acres and plans call for a "traditional neighborhood development" with 240 homes, 40 businesses, open space and walking trails. Confirmed retailers include Fink's Jewelers, Steger Creek (unique gifts and collectibles founded in Winston-Salem with an additional location in Roanoke), and The Columns (moving from their Rivermont Avenue address in Lynchburg).
* Braxton Park is a 200 townhome development and commercial center sitting on 28 acres on Timberlake Road. Cornerstone is also referred to as a "traditional neighborhood development" with 650-1,000 homes and 100,000 square feet of retail, parks and open space on 113 acres.
* Lakeside Centre plans include one million square feet of commercial development on 130 acres including a hotel, a theater, retail stores and a restaurant.
* Finally, a strictly residential development called Farmington at Forest calls for 400 homes on 300 acres off Perrowville Road and close to Jefferson Forest High School.
Forest Square on 221 in Forest has completed Phase One and houses the Forest Post Office, Lil' Cucci's Pizzeria and Henderson's Country Furniture. Phase Two comprises 20,000 square feet, including a 5,000- square-foot, yet-to-be-announced restaurant and other retail.
"Phase Three includes a pad on which we hope to have a grocery store," says Gary Case, president of Gary Case & Company, the commercial real estate firm working with developer Dan Reber.
Campbell County Administrator David Lorel says, "Region 2000 is sitting on the cusp of retail and commercial development. As the population creeps up, commercial markets start to pop."
"We passed this threshold," continues Lorel, comparing the region's population growth from 225,000 to 250,000 as a bubble to crest. With a 2.9 percent unemployment rate and a strong business and industry sector that includes powerhouses Areva and BWXT and post-Ericcson wireless start-ups, many skilled workers are being recruited to the area and increasing the population. In response, commercial development increases until it plateaus.
"Retail is a herding mentality," says Chris Doyle, vice-president of retail services at the Richmond-based office CB Richard Ellis. Doyle is describing national retailers seeing the success of their competition in a particular market and moving there because of it.
Doyle has worked the Lynchburg market for 10 years, and he says the trend started when Cracker Barrel moved to Wards Road. "They do fantastic; others do fantastic . . . There is safety in numbers . . . (and) there was an undersupply of quality options for the disposable income (of this area)," says Doyle, referring to other national chain restaurants moving to town, including Ruby Tuesday, Texas Roadhouse, Olive Garden, Chick-fil-A and Buffalo Wild Wings.
While Phase One of Wards Crossing West is nearing completion, Kohl's has led the pack on that particular development which will include Old Navy and Ross.
Phases Two and Three should be completed in Spring 2007 and Christmas 2007, respectively. All leases for Phase Two are out for signature with national retailers that are not yet in the Lynchburg market. Phase Two includes a 20,000-square-foot anchor with four smaller stores comprising 30,000 square feet. "This will be the value-priced fashion center in Lynchburg," adds Doyle.
How long will the growth continue and can it be sustained? Will national retailers continue to flock to Region 2000 or has it reached a leveling off? "We are in the middle of that window now," says Lorel, explaining the bubble that is being crested and the boom in residential and commercial development. It is a cycle close to its plateau and another population boom would be needed to increase commercial growth even more.
Falwell agrees: "It will be a while before the region can support two regional shopping centers."
While rumors have surfaced of another Barnes & Noble, "Lynchburg is not ready for a second store yet," says David Deason, vice-president of Barnes & Noble Inc. Of the store at Wards Crossing, "It's a good store for us . . . It's serving the market well." "The retail window is closing," says Doyle, speaking of market saturation. He says that Lynchburg now has its share of chain restaurants, will soon have the value-priced fashion niche filled, and the only real remaining hole is for a national chain fitness club.
The ambition is obviously there. Now we get to see if the need equals it.
(Catherine Mosley is a Forest-based freelance writer.)
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