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SuperJon wrote: I love dc Talk.
kevinrmcguire wrote:If Brett Favre goes up that banded up secondary consisting of practice squad talent, how can you not take Green Bay? !
MacGeek wrote:Ross my have a seperate shoulder and who know if he can play, Webster can't guard everyone, so that leaves what RW Mcquarters and some guy who was on the practice squad 2 weeks ago?kevinrmcguire wrote:If Brett Favre goes up that banded up secondary consisting of practice squad talent, how can you not take Green Bay? !
are you kidding? sure, they're the best in the league but they are playing good football right now. Corey Webster has stepped up big here as of late, and Ross has been a solid rookie all year.
MacGeek wrote:Did you watch yesterday's Cowboys game? If the Cowboys receivers could hold on to balls thrown at them perhaps the outcome is different. The Giants secondary scares nobody as banged up as they are.kevinrmcguire wrote:If Brett Favre goes up that banded up secondary consisting of practice squad talent, how can you not take Green Bay? !
are you kidding? sure, they're the best in the league but they are playing good football right now. Corey Webster has stepped up big here as of late, and Ross has been a solid rookie all year.
Green Bay is winning 62 percent of simulations by an average score of 25-21.
Giants QB Eli Manning is playing the best football of his career and his simulation numbers are good -- 224 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per simulation. In fact, Manning's numbers are not that much lower than those of Brett Favre, who averages 250 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per simulation.
Favre is averaging less than one interception while Manning is averaging more than one interception, and that is a key difference in the game.
The Giants' Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are averaging 140 combined rushing yards per simulation and well over 5 yards per carry. The Packers' Ryan Grant averages more than 5.5 yards per carry and more than 100 yards.
The game is close, with 25 percent of simulations coming down to a field goal or less. For the Giants to win, Manning needs to outplay yet another quarterback. In simulations where the Giants win, Manning averages more passing yards, 0.6 more touchdown passes and fewer interceptions than Favre.
In simulations where Grant is not playing and Green Bay starts Brandon Jackson with Vernand Morency as a backup, the Packers are winning 54 percent of the time -- a decline of eight percentage points.
However, if backup QB Aaron Rodgers plays, the Packers are still winning 56 percent of simulations -- a decline of only six percentage points from when Favre starts. The problem with this analysis? It's difficult to measure the intangible leadership quality that Favre brings, but from a purely statistical standpoint, Grant is more valuable to the Packers than Favre.
In simulations with Shockey playing, the Giants are still winning 38 percent of the time, confirming that the team can continue to win without its star tight end.
The Giants are sacking Favre twice per simulation. Even when we doubled the number of times the Giants sack Favre, the Giants' winning percentage (from 38 to 43 percent) does not improve as much as one would expect. The reason is the Packers throw a lot of short, slant passes, and even if the Giants blitz a lot, Favre still completes a high percentage of those passes to keep the ball moving.

