[SuperJon]

Coastal had to use their first ever kick return for a TD and a 60+ yard run to barely squeak by VMI on Saturday night, but they're 1-0 and riding a 5 game Big South winning streak. Mike Tolbert had a huge game for them this weekend. As always:

**All stats are vs Division I teams only**


Here is what their defense is giving up this season:

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Rushing Passing Total
267     84      351   -   Delaware St
300     11      311   -   Winston-Salem St
512     58      570   -   Georgia Southern
232     163     395   -   JMU
201     43      244   -   Furman
71      396     467   -   Presbyterian
296     229     525   -   VMI

Their passing numbers look great, but it should be noted that five of the teams they played are primarily option running teams (DSU, WSSU, GSU, VMI, and I think Furman but could be wrong). Against teams that like to pass the ball (Presby) they gave up passing yardage in droves. The one thing that is consistent is they are very weak against the run. They're giving up 268 yards a game on the ground, and, if you take out the Presby game just for fun, it goes up to 301 yards. Expect to see another boring game where we just run Rashad and Zach until they show they can stop them.

Here are their offensive numbers:

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Rushing Passing Total
125     222     347   -   Delaware St
96      301     397   -   Winston-Salem St
205     165     370   -   Georgia Southern
47      131     178   -   JMU
71      156     227   -   Furman
265     188     453   -   Presbyterian
316     117     433   -   VMI

They're starting to find out that they can't throw the ball like last year. Will Richardson just isn't good. Mike Tolbert had a phenomenal game this week against VMI rushing for something like 240 on 15 or so carries. They still have Jerome Simpson and, if Richardson can somehow complete a pass to him, he's still dangerous.

Quarterback play:

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Comp Att  TD Int Comp %
25   44    1  1  56
16   24    1  0  66
15   32    0  2  46
18   29    1  0  62
14   27    2  2  51
9    20    1  1  45
11   19    2  0  57 

As I said earlier, Will Richardson just isn't good. He's not that athletic and is not a threat to run at all. He's probably the worst Division I quarterback we've played so far this year. If we can put pressure on him, he's dead.

With that being said, they have another QB, Fortson, who is a threat to run the ball. He's barely ever passed when in at QB this year, but if there's ever a game for him to try and throw, it'll be this one.

Coastal's special teams have not been good at all. They've routinely given up large chunks of return yardage or kicked the ball out of bounds. They generally try to pooch kick to give more hang time and a shorter kick.

They got beat by PC and had a ton of trouble with VMI. VMI passed for a over 200 yards on them, so that shows that their defense isn't that great. I expect a win by probably two scores.


Beat Coastal.

[LUconn]

those rush defense numbers make me drool.

[ToTheLeft]

yeah, 512 to southern? I think we can come close to that, with our beastly line and ever improving running back tandem.

I think Rashad will get a new career high again this week. I honestly do.

Beat Coastal.

[SuperJon]

Liberty against Division I teams:

Defense:

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Rushing Passing Total
171     353     524   -   W&M
121     401     522   -   Elon
16      193     209   -   St. Francis
267     226     493   -   Toledo
67      252     319   -   Charleston Southern
65      332     397   -   Presbyterian

That brings us to an average of 117 yards rushing and 292 yards passing a game that they're giving up. We've had three games where we held the opponent under 70 yards rushing.

Here is the yardage they have gained against Division I opponents:

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Rushing Passing Total
182     203     385   -   W&M
74      258     332   -   Elon
379     212     591   -   St. Francis
181     101     282   -   Toledo
283     208     491   -   Charleston Southern
248	281	529   -   Presbyterian

That brings Liberty to an average of 224.5 yards rushing per game (five games of more than 150 yds) and 210.5 yards passing per game. The Flames have had three games of over 400 yards offense, and two over 500.

Passing percentages by game:

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Comp Att   TD Int Comp %
25   37    2  1   67
21   42    1  1   50
10   12    4  1   83
10   19    1  0   52
12   24    1  0   50
19   25    3  0   76

What does this show us? Liberty is at their best when having to throw 20-25 times or less. In the four games that that was the case, the results were three blowout wins and a one-point loss to FBS Toledo.

[NoahGreenbaumIsGreat]

How does the Kicker for Coastal stack up against the great NOAH GREENBAUM?

[ToTheLeft]

Winston Salem State?

I just noticed that... a team that struggles to score 20 drops that kind of yardage...

Wow.

I like my chicken deep fried, after its been dipped in egg, hot sauce, and flour.

Served with a side of mashed potatoes and a root beer.

Beat Coastal.

[Schfourteenteen]

How does the Kicker for Coastal stack up against the great NOAH GREENBAUM?

Shut up man for all the Ben Shipps loving youre definitely letting him down

[Stevev]

Lets see: Coastal played Furman and GA Southern tough early on and lost to Presbyt and barely squeeked by VMI the last 2 weeks. They are definately trending downward. What are the issues here, injuries or team moral problems. I know they lost a ton of seniors but why the dropoff lately. We are definately trending upward with disappointments early in the year and a near miss against 1A Toledo (A team which might not be so bad after all) and some blowouts against subpar competition. If you go with how the teams are trending LU should win in blowout fashion but you never know. If Coastal can bring back what they brought to Furman and GA Southern then we could be in for a game this weekend. I am still curious as to why Coastal has dropped off so much the last 2 weeks.

[jcmanson]

Lets see: Coastal played Furman and GA Southern tough early on and lost to Presbyt and barely squeeked by VMI the last 2 weeks. They are definately trending downward. What are the issues here, injuries or team moral problems. I know they lost a ton of seniors but why the dropoff lately. We are definately trending upward with disappointments early in the year and a near miss against 1A Toledo (A team which might not be so bad after all) and some blowouts against subpar competition. If you go with how the teams are trending LU should win in blowout fashion but you never know. If Coastal can bring back what they brought to Furman and GA Southern then we could be in for a game this weekend. I am still curious as to why Coastal has dropped off so much the last 2 weeks.

It could be playing "down" to the competition. I don't know if that's the case or not, but it could be. They were up big on Presby early, must have relaxed and Presby came back on them. As far as VMI, they probably thought they could just show up and win. Again, I don't know if this is true or not, but it could be a reason. If it is true, then we could be in for a close one Saturday.

[SuperJon]

Coastal always plays to the competition they're playing. David Bennett is an insanely good motivator and can get the guys to play amazing against the JMU 05's, Furman 06's. However, against the teams that aren't as great, Coastal has always played down to them. Look at GWU, Liberty, CSU 05, Liberty and CSU 06, and VMI/Presby 07. The thing is, in the past, they had Tyler Thigpen to bring the to a victory. This year, they don't.

[BJWilliams]

I was looking over the numbers, and if Im not mistaken, we have yet to go for less than 100 yards passing this year, and we have only rushed for less than 100 yards once (Elon). Course as Jon said in the numbers breakdown, we are at our most successful when we throw 25 or fewer times a game:

vs Presbyterian 25 attempts 281 yards W
vs CSU 24 attempts 208 yards W
vs Toledo 19 attempts 101 yards L
vs St Francis 12 attempts 212 yards W
vs. Elon 42 attempts 258 yards L
vs William and Mary 37 attempts 203 yards L

When LU attempts 25 or fewer passes in a game (against DI opposition): 3-1
When LU attempts more than 25 passes in a game (against DI opposition): 0-2
When LU attempts 25 or fewer passes in a game (against DI opposition): 50 ppg
When LU attempts more than 25 passes in a game (against DI opposition): 27.5 ppg

I also cross referenced the rushing yardages and total team carries by game (Div I games only):

vs. Presbyterian 46 total team carries 248 yards W
vs Charleston Southern 45 total team carries 283 yards W
vs Toledo 31 total team carries 181 yards L
vs St Francis, PA 50 total team carries 379 yards W
vs Elon 22 total team carries 74 yards L
vs William and Mary 37 total team carries 182 yards L

So in short, against Div I opponents: when LU has 40 or more total team carries, they are 3-0, when we have less than 40 total team carries...0-3

Here is an additional statistical note: LU has scored at least 30 points in all but one game this season (Elon) and has two games of 50 or more points scored (2-0)

[BJWilliams]

There has been talk about the running game in other threads. I think that if we go with what has worked and that is hand the ball off to Rashad and let him pound through the middle, and we work Zach on the edges (which from what I have seen is where he is most dangerous) we can win this game.

[ToTheLeft]

I think you worded that wrong.

The only way THEY will win is if we DON'T do that.

But we will do that.

And we will be in a good position to win.

[BJWilliams]

I think you worded that wrong.

The only way THEY will win is if we DON'T do that.

But we will do that.

And we will be in a good position to win.

Good point. I think that the way we have played this year 40 is really a sort of "magic number" because as I noted in my extrapolation a couple posts up, we are undefeated against DI teams this year when we carry the ball 40 or more times.

[ToTheLeft]

Exactly.

[BJWilliams]

Exactly.

Here is an additional bit of extrapolation:

vs. Presbyterian: 25 attempts 281 yards passing 46 total carries 248 yards rushing 529 total yards
vs. CSU: 24 attempts 208 yards passing 45 total carries 283 yards rushing 491 total yards
vs. Toledo: 19 attempts 101 yards passing 31 total carries 181 yards rushing 282 total yards
vs St Francis, PA 12 attempts 212 yards passing 50 total carries 379 yards rushing 591 total yards
vs Elon 42 attempts 258 yards passing 22 total carries 74 yards
vs William and Mary 37 attempts 203 yards passing 37 total carries 182 yards rushing


In the games where we total 25 or fewer passing attempts AND 40 or more total team carries (3 games) : 467.3 typg, 55ppg
In the game where we totaled 25 or fewer attempts and FEWER than 40 total team carries (Toledo): 282 total yards, 34 points
In the games where we total MORE than 25 attempts AND fewer than 40 total team carries (2 games): 358.5 typg 27.5 ppg