[SuperJon]

I did this last week, and we won, and I'm superstitious, so here it is this week. That and I'm insanely excited for this game.

As we know, Presby is coming off of a big win vs Coastal this week. Coach Rocco says he's treating this as a conference game, so we should too.

**All stats are vs Division I teams only**


Here is what their defense is giving up this season:

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Rushing Passing Total
191     344     535   -   Furman
282     105     387   -   Samford
163     269     432   -   Western Carolina
280     224     504   -   VMI
265     188     453   -   Coastal Carolina

The thing that sticks out to me the most is that they gave up 224 passing yards to VMI. To put that in perspective, VMI has only had 423 passing yards in their other six games combined. They're averaging 70.5 yards passing and put up 224 against Presby's defense. Their defense has been equally bad but against the rush and against the pass. They run some type of 3-5 defense. With the speed of our wideouts, and the power of our running game, I don't think we'll have trouble putting up points.

Here are their offensive numbers:

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Rushing Passing Total
28      308     336   -   Furman
159     213     372   -   Samford
89      246     335   -   Western Carolina
280     273     553   -   VMI
71      396     467   -   Coastal Carolina

They've got three games where they didn't even break 100 yards rushing. On the other hand, they have three games where they threw for over 250. If our defense plays like they did in the second half on Saturday, we should be in good shape. If they don't, we could have a shootout. I tend to think we've turned things around though. They're going to find out they can't run on us early and are just going to start chucking the ball up like crazy.

Quarterback play:

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Comp Att  TD Int Comp %
18   28    0  2  64
23   47    3  2  49
20   37    1  1  54
19   28    1  0  68
30   44    3  6  68

They switched QBs midway through the season. The first one wasn't doing bad, but just wasn't getting it done. The guy we're going to face this weekend is the one that's played the last three games. As you can see, he threw six interceptions against Coastal on Saturday. With the way our defense has been picking people off, they could have a big day.

Presby loves the trick plays. Byrnes Bentley runs a gimmick offense and just throws it around and has fun with it. He's very risky going for it on fourth downs, running fake field goals/punts, halfback passes, and anything else you can think of. Our defense just has to be sound and not over pursue and they'll be ok.

This should be a fun game. I think we'll win. One thing I know for sure is PC is better than Chuck South, so don't think just because they're transitioning that they're not as good. They're a solid football team, especially offensively.

[SuperJon]

Liberty against Division I teams:

Defense:

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Rushing Passing Total
171     353     524   -   W&M
121     401     522   -   Elon
16      193     209   -   St. Francis
267     226     493   -   Toledo
67      252     319   -   Charleston Southern

That brings us to an average of 128 yards rushing and 285 yards passing a game that they're giving up. Liberty is intercepting almost two balls a game and giving up nearly two touchdowns per game through the air.

Here is the yardage they have gained against Division I opponents:

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Rushing Passing Total
182     203     385   -   W&M
74      258     332   -   Elon
379     212     591   -   St. Francis
181     101     282   -   Toledo
283     208     491   -   Charleston Southern

That brings Liberty to an average of 219.8 yards rushing per game (four games of more than 150 yds) and 196.4 yards passing per game. The Flames have had 4 games over over 300 yards offense.

Passing percentages by game:

Code: Select all

Comp Att   TD Int Comp %
25   37    2  1   67
21   42    1  1   50
10   12    4  1   83
10   19    1  0   52
12   24    1  0   50

What does this show us? Liberty is at their best when having to throw 20-25 times or less. In the three games that that was the case, they won two and lost by one (to FBS Toledo).

If we get the rushing game going again, we win. That's all there is to say. We control the clock, Presby's offense stays off the field. We've expanded the offense every game since St. Francis, so I expect to see some things we haven't seen yet this year. Coach Rocco said after the game on Saturday that we took some things out of the game plan after the game got out of hand so there's some things they didn't show that they could've.

[Stevev]

They are better than Chuck South but not by that much. We should be able to move the ball like we did at Chuck South on the ground and air but expect us to give up more yards especially through the air. Need to put more pressure on the QB. Playing at home will be nice in front of 15K+. Nice job on the stats by the way.

[ToTheLeft]

Ummm, 15K?

I'm thinking at least 17-18, maybe pushing 20.

We had 15K against a D-II school in September.

This is HOMECOMING! (haha, 300 reference, get it?)

[ToTheLeft]

Oh, and SJ you KNOW I love the stats. If i had anything else to come up with i would.

Its a shame they dont have NFL caliber detailed stats for our level of play, like the stats inc. stuff, like how a QB fares in certain situations.

[Stevev]

Where the heck are we going to put 18K+?

[ToTheLeft]

The hills, the temp. bleachers, standing room only on the top levels, on top of the FOC, who knows.

[SuperJon]

Where the heck are we going to put 18K+?

Believe me, they're planning on a ton.

[Stevev]

That is great to here that the interest level is that high. I wish I could be there. Too many things happening right now.

[Sly Fox]

Another excellent statistical analysis, SJ. It illustrates how dangerous they are offensively. I anticipate a high scoring game with their spread offense against our ram it down your throat running game.

[El Scorcho]

Where the heck are we going to put 18K+?

We had 16k last year and it wasn't bad at all. There's plenty of room left at The Bill.

[PAmedic]

I'll be quite disappointed if we DON'T rack up at least 250 on the ground. Brock can be effective without big numbers thru the air- so as long as he isn't throwing picks, I'd be happy with 150 passing yards.

Conversely, if we give up more than 150 on the ground or 250 thru the air, we're asking for trouble. From the CCU game- its evident the Blue Hose don't give up easily- even when down big. They really have nothing to lose and everything to gain, so they come out loose.

Coach just needs to get our guys to play fundamentally solid football, and this one should be a "W"

[LUconn]

I guess nobody's worried about their defense. But I would just like add that I read on their board that they run a 3-5 defense. We ran that in PeeWee football. And then in HS we did not.

[gobluehose]

I guess nobody's worried about their defense. But I would just like add that I read on their board that they run a 3-5 defense. We ran that in PeeWee football. And then in HS we did not.

please think that our defense is the same as a PeeWee football defense......and you'll be having the same "how did we lose to PC" conversation this time next week that VMI and Coastal are having....the "ram it down your throat" concept hasn't worked against PC's defense...thats what VMI and Coastal tried....sure you may get some big runs here and there that make the stats look gaudy...but PC's PeeWee 3-5 defense stopped Coastal cold inside the 5 twice with a full set of downs because they thought they could just over power their way in....its more of a bend but don't break philosophy

IMO the way to beat PC's defense is to stretch them out from sideline to sideline (like our offense does)....we don't have a lot of depth or great team speed, so they would eventually wear down. But go ahead and take the same strategy as VMI and Coastal...

Forward this to Coach Rocco if you like....it might help him

[El Scorcho]

the "ram it down your throat" concept hasn't worked against PC's defense...thats what VMI and Coastal tried

VMI and Coastal don't have Rashad Jennings in the backfield.

[Cider Jim]

...or our mostly DI-A, ACC/SEC offensive line.

[thepostman]

or Zach Terrell for that matter....

[Knucklehead]

I guess nobody's worried about their defense. But I would just like add that I read on their board that they run a 3-5 defense. We ran that in PeeWee football. And then in HS we did not.

please think that our defense is the same as a PeeWee football defense......and you'll be having the same "how did we lose to PC" conversation this time next week that VMI and Coastal are having....the "ram it down your throat" concept hasn't worked against PC's defense...thats what VMI and Coastal tried....sure you may get some big runs here and there that make the stats look gaudy...but PC's PeeWee 3-5 defense stopped Coastal cold inside the 5 twice with a full set of downs because they thought they could just over power their way in....its more of a bend but don't break philosophy

IMO the way to beat PC's defense is to stretch them out from sideline to sideline (like our offense does)....we don't have a lot of depth or great team speed, so they would eventually wear down. But go ahead and take the same strategy as VMI and Coastal...

Forward this to Coach Rocco if you like....it might help him

OH! No, I hope Rashad and Zach don't get Hosed! Anyway, I don't think we'll be afraid to try and Stretch the field or run. Either will work!

[LUconn]

dude, you guys let up 21 and 34 points against those 2 teams. I don't think that's anything to be bragging over.

[SuperJon]

Presby will be so overwhelmed by our size it's pathetic.

Other than wide receivers, everyone in our offensive starting lineup, is heavier than their heaviest player.

We have four guys on offense that are shorter than their tallest player (6'3) and they're all 6'2.

Their interior defense (D-line and interior backers) are an average of 6'0 and 217 pounds.


Our smallest offensive lineman is 6'2, 275. Our average offensive lineman size is 6'5, 297 pounds.


I think we can run the ball down their throats.

[Knucklehead]

Presby will be so overwhelmed by our size it's pathetic.

Other than wide receivers, everyone in our offensive starting lineup, is heavier than their heaviest player.

We have four guys on offense that are shorter than their tallest player (6'3) and they're all 6'2.

Their interior defense (D-line and interior backers) are an average of 6'0 and 217 pounds.


Our smallest offensive lineman is 6'2, 275. Our average offensive lineman size is 6'5, 297 pounds.


I think we can run the ball down their throats.

Great stuff SJ. Can't wait to see that. CAN YOU SAY PANCAKE!!

[JDUB]

so... they'll probably have 3 players blocking vince like other teams have done?

[SuperJon]

Their OL was just as small, but nobody has yet to more than double-teamed Vince, that's just dumb.

[BJWilliams]

in coaching football class today we talked about combo blocking. If they doubled Vince, that is gonna allow somebody to come free unless they are doing it all over the first two levels.

[TDDance234]

We simply cannot afford to get down early--when we're down 10+ points, we start getting away from what we do well, which is running the ball. If we have to play catchup and put the ball in the hands of Brock, we're going to have another Elon on our hands.

Our best defense in this game is to keep Presby's offense off the field. If we can chew up some big minutes on log drives, it will be a long day for PC. We try shooting with them, it could get ugly.