- November 6th, 2008, 9:11 pm
#207479
Let's tackle these one-by-one...
ABORTION: Obama will increase funding for single mothers and such, so as to take away the incentive for abortion for many. That's good. As for laws, Obama has pledged to sign the "Freedom of Choice Act" as one of his first acts in office. That law would repeal all hurdles to abortion on the federal and state level, such as parental notification laws, waiting periods, and partial-birth abortion. There will be unlimited and unfettered access to abortions, and it will probably be funded in part by taxpayer dollars if that's the case. Long story short, come January 20th, pro-lifers who voted for Obama will have blood on their hands.
AFFIRMATIVE ACTION: Is really a court decision (see Grutter v. Bollinger). I think, in part, employers will say to themselves 'I don't need to adhere to affirmative action, a black guy can become president, so I shouldn't give someone special favors to work for me.' But, the ACLU lawyer types will descend on those employers and sue them, and the media types will say we haven't really moved on. Besides, Obama is in favor of quota systems if a company is receiving any sort of federal funding. Example, faith-based organizations will no longer be able to discriminate in their hiring practices. Good? Yes, until a homosexual complains that a church is discriminating against him because of his sexual orientation when his application to work for the church as a vacation Bible school counselor was denied.
BUDGET DEFICIT: Obama will do little to curb the rising costs of mandatory spending (such as social security and medicare), which accounts for approximately 40% (and growing) in our budget. Baby boomers have already started retiring and they will continue to do so in the four (or eight) years of an Obamadminstration -- i just made that word up. There will be a short-term boost in receipts with taxes going up, but a receding economy and increased spending means a budget surplus is out of the question. Probably won't be as bad as it is now, because we won't be spending as much supporting a war effort.
CUBA: Raul Castro seems to be open to a change in trade relations (or at least, not as closed off to it as Fidel was). I predict Obama will have a "Jimmy Carter at Camp David with the Egyptians and Israelis" moment with the Cubans and open up trade and commerce with our neighbors, much to the chagrin of Cuban residents in America who escaped that regime.
DOLLAR STRENGTH: A global recession is not too far away, and the dollar will rise because we won't be nearly as screwed as other countries. We can certainly cope better with our woes than, say, France.
ECONOMICS: I think consumer confidence will go up because the media will stop reporting on how we're in the midst of the second Great Depression. I think our economy will start to recover mid-to-late of Obama's first term in office, but subsequently tank in the second (natural cycles).
EDUCATION: American kids are dumber and teachers unions are stronger than ever. The way to fix education is to either provide kids with a way out of crappy school systems, or to hold lousy teachers accountable. I can't forsee Obama standing up to teacher's unions.
FOREIGN TRADE: There will certainly be no new free trade agreements during Obama's term. However, I see relations improving with several nations such as the aforementioned Cuba, and Venezuela. I believe the trade deficit will decrease because we'll be doing relatively well compared to other nations.
GAY MARRIAGE: Ummm... With gay-friendly legislation, homosexuals can't ram it down the public's throats so they'll try to slip it in the backdoor. A gay couple will get married in a state where it's legal (imposed because of judicial fiat), such as in Massachusetts. They will try to move back to their home state, be denied, and sue because the law on the books preventing that (the Defense of Marriage Act) on the grounds that it violates the Full Faith and Credit clause in the Constitution. It'll work its way through the courts, and the Supremes will probably agree with that. A Roe v. Wade type decision will be enacted that basically says laws banning same-sex marriage are unconstitutional. Meanwhile, more and more states will permit civil unions, but it won't matter when that landmark decision is made.
HEALTH CARE: Some Massachusetts-style health care law will be enacted that mandates everyone over a certain age has to own health insurance. The government will agree to co-pay part of the costs. There may be an agreement with states to also co-pay. Premiums will shoot up, though. And the cost is going to be $$$$.
IRAN: Crapshoot, because no one knows. The situation in Iran is tied to the situation in Israel. The situation in Israel is tied to the peace negotiations with the Palestinians, which is scheduled to happen in January. I think some agreement will happen between Israel & the Palestinians. I think Israel will probably re-instate the hawkish Likud party. Still, I don't think they'll opt to attack Iran, who has problems of their own. Iran's economy is in the tank and it's not going anywhere because its cash cow, oil, is seeing its prices decrease. That being said, I think Iran will, with the backing of Russia and China (and hell, maybe even President Obama) announce to the world that they will stop its nuclear program IF Israel reveals and vows to destroy its nuclear arsenal. Israel will balk at the notion, and the international opinion of the Jewish state will hit the crapper.
NORTH KOREA: Kim Jong-Il will die in the next four years. Some other ruler will take his place. Tensions may cool between us and them (they may already), but its people will still be imprisoned in that totalitarian regime, and North Korea will continue to be an ally to other surreptitious countries such as Syria.
PAKISTAN: Somewhere down the line, we will probably launch a targeted strike at some place in Pakistan, saying we believed Al Qaeda militants were there. Heck, Osama bin Laden may be there, and we may get him. You know... maybe Osama bin Laden will make himself found. I wouldn't put it beyond him.
SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL: See above. By the way, did anyone read Joel Rosenberg's book, "The Ezekiel Option"? In it, the United Nations debates a bill that mandates Israel disarm its nukes or face its wrath. When it comes to a vote, many nations agree to the measure, fewer disagree... And the United States president votes "Present". I totally see something like that happening.
VENEZUELA: President Obama will meet with Hugo Chavez sometime in his first two years in office. Chavez will salute America, while at the same time find ways to continue to curb its oil production and encourage OPEC members to do the same, so as to jack up the price of oil somewhere between 80 - 120 dollars a barrel, depending on whether or not there is a skirmish going on.
WAR IN IRAQ: I seriously think Obama won't do anything differently than what George Bush would do if he was nominated for a third-term. We will reach an agreement with the Iraqis before Obama takes office to allow our troops to stay in past the UN-mandated withdrawal date of Dec. 31 of this year. We will continue to slowly draw down forces -- Obama says he will keep Defense Secretary Robert Gates in his current position for the time being and he won't do anything to David Petraeus. The Iraq War will be won as well as any war can be won that doesn't end in someone signing a peace treaty, or aboard an aircraft carrier with "Mission Accomplished" in the background.
WAR IN AFGHANISTAN: We will commit troops to Afghanistan, however, there will be no real ground strategy. Eventually we'll pull them out, though, without fixing the problems. The Taliban will take over and we won't really pay attention anymore.
RANDOM PREDICTION: France will be the next nation to be hit with a terrorist attack, nothing 9/11 in scale but probably more like the London Bombings of 7/7/05. Muslims are prevalent in France, ill-tempered, and hate french president Nicolas Sarkozy.
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- By jbock13
- By LU Armchair coach