[AZjonz]

So....back to the markets...


Someone check out CLF and tell me what you think.

And while you guys debate taxes you have no control over, CLF is up 2 dollars and 6% on the day. Anyone with a sharp eye want to value the price? Currently trading at 34. I've seen some market estimates at 46 dollars.

Have you bought the stock yet? I find it interesting.

Just doing a “quick and dirty book” financial statement adjustment gives me a Book Value of $33 where the stock is trading. So this may be an interesting “Value” play here. When a stock gets beat down as bad as CLF, it can be more of a value trap than a value stock. Just a cursory glance shows major margin compression from 1 year ago due to iron ore prices being crushed. I need to model pro forma financial statements and regress the stock price against iron ore prices in order value this stock – maybe this weekend. You piqued my curiosity with this one. Without digging too much into the financial statements it appears that this stock’s performance hinges on an iron ore recovery. China is the major consumer of iron, and their economy appears to be improving. So this is a plus. Regressing the stock price to iron ore prices (and any other independent variables) and testing for statistical significance may give a nice forecast of where this stock price is heading.

I have some work to do on this one. Interesting find. If, and that's a big if, I do buy this and it performs well, I owe you a steak dinner.

Edit some things here: I see they mine coal. That gives me some concern.

[logic]

Coal yes but mostly iron ore. I look at the financials and see a healthy company, but don't know enough about how to value a company to come up with a price.

[jbock13]

What about RDS-A it went up .24 today.

[AZjonz]

Coal yes but mostly iron ore. I look at the financials and see a healthy company, but don't know enough about how to value a company to come up with a price.

Logic,

Here are two excellent books that can walk you through valuation. I highly recommend both. The first one will teach you how to model out assumptions using spreadsheets. The 2nd one is part of the CFA curriculum so it is very thorough and heavy on theory. If you were taking the Level 2 test for the CFA charter you would have to know this 2nd book inside and out. Neither is a quick read; both books require a lot of heavy lifting.

1) Equity Valuation for Analysts and Investors
http://www.amazon.com/Equity-Valuation- ... +valuation

2) Equity Asset Valuation
http://www.amazon.com/Equity-Asset-Valu ... +valuation

[logic]

I appreciate it jonz, and will take a look. Thank you!

[JDUB]

amazon

[logic]

Ever get that sick feeling when you've been studying a company and tracking a stock, only to NOT buy and then proceed to see it skyrocket? CLF up another 6% today to 37.80 ish. Maybe that market estimate of 46.00 wasn't far off?

[jbock13]

You're so smart logic

[logic]

Clearly not or I would have bought at 28 where it was a month ago.

[AZjonz]

Clearly not or I would have bought at 28 where it was a month ago.

I’ve passed up and/or closed out of trades prematurely before they ever paid off. It happens. I’m an energy trader by profession, and we have a saying, “anyone can be lucky enough to make 1 good trade; a good trader can make 2 in a row.” Your instincts were right on this one. If you like this stuff, keep pressing yourself to learn more.

We also say, “It’s better to be long and wrong than short and fired.”

BTW – I passed on this, too. I didn’t trust myself to make an intelligent iron ore forecast. You live, you learn - right?

[logic]

The markets will open tomorrow amidst good news from the averted fiscal cliff. Taxes will not go up for those making less than 400k. May be a good time to get in. The house will vote on the senate cliff bill tonight and my guess is that it will pass.

[Purple Haize]

The markets will open tomorrow amidst good news from the averted fiscal cliff. Taxes will not go up for those making less than 400k. May be a good time to get in. The house will vote on the senate cliff bill tonight and my guess is that it will pass.

Your definition of 'Good News' is different then most. $41 of tax hikes for every $1 of spending cuts is not good news.

[logic]

My parents paycheck won't go down. Good news for our family. Good news for me.

[Purple Haize]

My parents paycheck won't go down. Good news for our family. Good news for me.

You keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.

[logic]

If you want to talk about "what is good for the country" and all that jazz you should save it. The dream that was the Republic died in 1913 with the Rothschilds, the creation of the FED, and the 16th amendment. Fitting that only 100 years later it single handidly destroyed the once grand idea brought forth by Jefferson and our founding fathers.

"Therefore, when a small group of men approach Congress in order to induce the committee concerned to concur in certain legislation, nobody knows the ramifications of the interests which those men represent; there seems no frank and open action of public opinion in public counsel, but every man is suspected of representing some other man and it is not known where his connections begin or end."

- Woodrow Wilson on the creation of the FED....aka Rothschild.


The United States is dead, and won't return until the FED is destroyed and we return to sound money. Until then, the markets will open tomorrow up with good news from the fiscal cliff deal, and there is money to be made if you know where to put it.

[Purple Haize]

Alex Jones Alert. I thought I saw some black helicopters around. Don't forget JP Morgan and the Getty family.
The fiscal cliff 'deal' isn't very good news for anyone living in America and you can ALWAYS make money in the market if you know where to look.

[logic]

Ok Haize, keep your head in the sand. Rothschild had been trying to set up a federal bank in the States since the early 1800's, maybe earlier. Do some research into Andrew Jackson's presidency and his thoughts on a central bank. Was it dumb luck that his assassination attempt was carried out by an Englishman? Jackson himself hinted at a possible conspiracy and that his political enemies were behind the assassination.

FED = private bank. Morgan and Getty yes. Don't forget Paul Warburg and Jacob Schiff. Throw in Rockefeller as well. Warburg was the Rothschild's number one guy here in the states and he is largely responsible for finally getting Rothschild in the door and the FED created.

Don't you find it odd we had very little need for a peacetime income tax until the FED was created, and then not only did we get an income tax, it was actually amended into the constitution?

I'll lose a lot of respect for you Haize if you actually think the FED has anything to do with our Federal Government. This isn't looney conspiracy theory talk, the FED is private bank with private shareholders and at the end of a long paper trail that doesn't exist you'll find it leads back to Rothschild and the "City of London."


"In the early 19th century, the five sons of Mayer Amschel Rothschild set out from the family home in Frankfurt to the principal financial centres of Europe – London, Paris, Frankfurt, Naples and Vienna, to establish their great banking houses.
The brothers remained closely connected to their father and to each other and together worked as a partnership, binding themselves by contract to clear, defined objectives and principles. They created the fastest and safest courier network in Europe by which they exchanged market information, and soon positioned themselves as the best informed and most internationally effective banking group in the world."

- http://www.rothschild.com/our_history/


The most amazing part of it all is that they don't really try to hide it. Do some research into that courier network in Europe and "quick" market information as it relates to Napolean and the London Stock exchange. They don't even try to hide it Haize!!

[Purple Haize]

Darned Jews!
I know the FED isn't a branch of the Government but also not all the Founding Fathers were opposed to a Federal Reserve. None of which has anything to do with whether or not the FiscalCliff deal is good news

[ALUmnus]

I'll lose a lot of respect for you Haize if you actually think the FED has anything to do with our Federal Government.

Look at that, Haize, you have a lot of respect to lose! It must have been hiding.

[From the class of 09]

My parents paycheck won't go down. Good news for our family. Good news for me.

Actually it will by 2%...

[ALUmnus]

Yep, just got the email from HR this morning. FICA up 2% starting yesterday. Woohoo!

[Purple Haize]

My parents paycheck won't go down. Good news for our family. Good news for me.

But...but....

You guys must be in the evil 2%! It used to be the 1% but they had to lower it!

[jbock13]

The only reason you would jump in at this level is if you think inflation will begin to soar.

[From the class of 09]

Ok Haize, keep your head in the sand. Rothschild had been trying to set up a federal bank in the States since the early 1800's, maybe earlier. Do some research into Andrew Jackson's presidency and his thoughts on a central bank. Was it dumb luck that his assassination attempt was carried out by an Englishman? Jackson himself hinted at a possible conspiracy and that his political enemies were behind the assassination.

FED = private bank. Morgan and Getty yes. Don't forget Paul Warburg and Jacob Schiff. Throw in Rockefeller as well. Warburg was the Rothschild's number one guy here in the states and he is largely responsible for finally getting Rothschild in the door and the FED created.

Don't you find it odd we had very little need for a peacetime income tax until the FED was created, and then not only did we get an income tax, it was actually amended into the constitution?

I'll lose a lot of respect for you Haize if you actually think the FED has anything to do with our Federal Government. This isn't looney conspiracy theory talk, the FED is private bank with private shareholders and at the end of a long paper trail that doesn't exist you'll find it leads back to Rothschild and the "City of London."


"In the early 19th century, the five sons of Mayer Amschel Rothschild set out from the family home in Frankfurt to the principal financial centres of Europe – London, Paris, Frankfurt, Naples and Vienna, to establish their great banking houses.
The brothers remained closely connected to their father and to each other and together worked as a partnership, binding themselves by contract to clear, defined objectives and principles. They created the fastest and safest courier network in Europe by which they exchanged market information, and soon positioned themselves as the best informed and most internationally effective banking group in the world."

- http://www.rothschild.com/our_history/


The most amazing part of it all is that they don't really try to hide it. Do some research into that courier network in Europe and "quick" market information as it relates to Napolean and the London Stock exchange. They don't even try to hide it Haize!!

Really?

[logic]

Really?

I am sorry, did you think the Federal Reserve was actually a part of our government? You didn't know it is a private bank that controls our nation's money supply? Ron Paul's "End The Fed" is only the tip of the iceberg. Have you never researched the creation of the FED? Never heard the names Schiff, Warburg, Morgan, Rockefeller, and Rothschild in the same sentence? Ever wondered where the income tax came from, why we have it, and how it relates to the FED?

Sometimes ignorance is bliss.