[JK37]

Sure, the students will probably be fine, but you quarantine so they don’t spread it to everyone else. Many of the professors, staff, and local community will not be fine if they catch this thing. We’ve got 80 people hospitalized with COVID in our community right now and that number has been growing fast.

For your case to be compelling, you need definitions of “fine” and “fast”. 80 people in a community of tens of thousands doesn’t feel like a lot to me, and the speed with which those 80 people have accumulated could be interesting.

Plus, “with” is also a key word. Don’t other conditions affect the severity?

Don’t pee on my head and call it rain. In our overly-litigious society, the influencers and decision-makers on these campuses are showing with their actions they are not interested foremost in health and safety; they are concerned first with liability.

[willflop]

My understanding of these numbers is not that they are estimates, but scenarios, sorta “what would we do if it was this?”

If you go to the section on case fatality rate by age on this https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-ri ... -19-by-age, it might give you an idea. I can’t find the data for the US at the moment, but it’s probably in the range of the countries represented.

They do word it as a planning scenarios, but they clearly state it's an estimate:

Scenario 5 represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: the parameter values will change as more data become available. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

In other words, I read them as saying: based on our statistical modeling and best estimate from what we know and what we can extrapolate from how other viruses behave, here are the possible ranges of what the infection fatality rate may be. Therefore, you should plan for the worse (scenario 1), hope for the best (scenario 4), and assume the most likely is "Scenario 5." They are confidence intervals.

Case fatality rate is a lot easier since it's dealing with two knowns -- did the person test positive and did the person die. The CDC makes a big distinction between that number and IFR (infection fatality rate). These 99.9% numbers are all IFR based.

[rogers3]

Today's numbers are pretty crazy, especially when we compare it to the other large institutions in Virginia. But hey, if it's Christian it should be better, right? Liberty is obviously better than any other school at making sure students have the most opportunities to get sick and at putting the larger community at risk by not having any protocols.

[stokesjokes]

@willflop, you’re right, I misunderstood.

[stokesjokes]

Sure, the students will probably be fine, but you quarantine so they don’t spread it to everyone else. Many of the professors, staff, and local community will not be fine if they catch this thing. We’ve got 80 people hospitalized with COVID in our community right now and that number has been growing fast.

For your case to be compelling, you need definitions of “fine” and “fast”. 80 people in a community of tens of thousands doesn’t feel like a lot to me, and the speed with which those 80 people have accumulated could be interesting.

Plus, “with” is also a key word. Don’t other conditions affect the severity?

Don’t pee on my head and call it rain. In our overly-litigious society, the influencers and decision-makers on these campuses are showing with their actions they are not interested foremost in health and safety; they are concerned first with liability.

It’s such a hard conversation to have, because at what number do we say “these amount of lives aren’t worth the trouble.” There’s so many variables to consider but it just seems like there’s plenty of small measures that wouldn’t have been terribly hard or inconvenient to implement.

From a practical standpoint, if you’re going to have the quarantine measures, it just makes sense to do things to keep the spread down just so you don’t have to put everyone in quarantine.

[BlueBlood]

I’m wondering if masks will be required indoors at the end of the quarantine. And that the kids will be more accepting having just gone through the quarantine.

[willflop]

To add, if the 99.9% IFR proves to be true in the end, I don't think that's an argument for no mitigations, especially when it's .95 for others. The pessimistic side of me is just starting to think that in person mitigations won't work, which is why my original contribution to this thread was to point out the situation at Duke. They have a comparable 15k student population, have mandatory vaccination to be a student or staff, and had mask protocols. Their data is trailing LU's by a couple of days yet it's already rivaling it, and very well could exceed it in the next update, where 2.4% of their vaccinated student population is positive.

However, this is only exposed because they also do mandatory testing. Tech has 30k students has performed 1,400 tests, with about 2.4% positive rate. Duke has tested 14,000 students and has a positive rate of 2.4%. It's also interesting to note, of the 2.4% positive at Duke, 98% of them were vaccinated and 2% of them were not vaccinated. It's uncanny, but this matches their exact student population distribution, where 98% of the 15k are vaccinated and 2% are not. It's almost as if the vaccination had no impact other than suppressing symptoms.

It can't be proven without tests, but I'm pretty sure these other VA schools are "masking" the issue, hundreds of students are not quarantining because the vaccine suppresses the symptoms, which gives a false sense of security that their protocols are "helping the community."

[stokesjokes]

The only flaw in your Duke comparison with LU is that LU is definitely not testing the same way Duke is. If we’re going to assume that the other VA schools’ true number is higher, it’s probably fair to assume that there’s also a significant number of asymptomatic LU students not being tested as well. After all, a good number of the students are vaccinated, they just haven’t been mandated to at this point.

[Whatisthetruth]

FYI

https://wset.com/news/local/liberty-uni ... s-combined

[cruzan_flame13]

FYI

https://wset.com/news/local/liberty-uni ... s-combined

Cases literally mean nothing; just a circumstance. Literally criteria based on professional decision. We should definitely trust that without question!! Clearly the vagueness works on the masses as they sway the perception that is more beneficial for them.

[cruzan_flame13]

The only flaw in your Duke comparison with LU is that LU is definitely not testing the same way Duke is. If we’re going to assume that the other VA schools’ true number is higher, it’s probably fair to assume that there’s also a significant number of asymptomatic LU students not being tested as well. After all, a good number of the students are vaccinated, they just haven’t been mandated to at this point.

Asymptomatic....so healthy people. Why test healthy people? Oh right, for the Ministry of Truth's sake. Gotcha.

[stokesjokes]

I don’t disagree, although I liked Brave New World better

I’m just saying you can’t suggest that the other VA schools’ numbers are underreported because they don’t test like Duke and then say our reported numbers are comparable to Duke when we also don’t test like Duke.

[Yacht Rock]

Asymptomatic....so healthy people. Why test healthy people? Oh right, for the Ministry of Truth's sake. Gotcha.

Because they can spread it to higher risk individuals. It's not that difficult to comprehend.

[cruzan_flame13]

Asymptomatic....so healthy people. Why test healthy people? Oh right, for the Ministry of Truth's sake. Gotcha.

Because they can spread it to higher risk individuals. It's not that difficult to comprehend.

How could someone spread something that they do not have? They have no cause or symptoms, so they cannot spread the particular virus if they do not have it. What's sad is that you actually believe what you've posted. To each their own.

[Yacht Rock]

You do realize that being a carrier of a contagion and having symptoms of a disease caused by a contagion are two different things, right?

If you’re not comfortable with that level of health science, then I’m not sure what to say.

[cruzan_flame13]

You do realize that being a carrier of a contagion and having symptoms of a disease caused by a contagion are two different things, right?

If you’re not comfortable with that level of health science, then I’m not sure what to say.

So we should always be away from each other always because we carry those contagions all the time and that will never stop. So shall we stay apart from each other until we die and why haven't we done so when we had a outbreak of the flu in 2018 and from October 2019-February 2020( when they slowed down the count of increasing deaths). I think we really know who's the ones that are uncomfortable here. Also if you call what's going on health these day health science, then I stand corrected about feeling sorry about you believing what you're posting. Again I shall say for the final time, to each their own.

[cruzan_flame13]

I'll also add that these incidents were healthy science too until it was too late when many citizens complied and put their trust in white coats (without asking questions). People who profit when you get sick are not trying to save your life. Just a thought.

[jbock13]

Sometimes, I find it more productive to argue with a wall than some people on here.

[willflop]

The only flaw in your Duke comparison with LU is that LU is definitely not testing the same way Duke is. If we’re going to assume that the other VA schools’ true number is higher, it’s probably fair to assume that there’s also a significant number of asymptomatic LU students not being tested as well. After all, a good number of the students are vaccinated, they just haven’t been mandated to at this point.

Yes, I had considered that, so the way I worded it above may be misleading. LU very well could have more in the end, but there are a lot of unknown variables. My supposition is that we are testing more than Tech, but obviously not at the same rate as Duke. And, the students we do test would have a higher hit rate because we are only testing students with more obvious symptoms.

But on the other hand, Duke's numbers are from a 7 day cumulative, while Liberty's are 10 day. Our 7 day number (8/22 to 8/28) was 285 (vs. there's at 349). This 285 almost doubled by 8/31, to 535. If Duke has a similar trending the next 3 days of their reporting, they could be close to 700 and reporting about 30% more than LU for the same time period. Between the unknowns and that 30% overage, there may be enough room to fudge comparability.

Either way, the real comparability is between Duke and Tech's mandatory vaccine and mask protocols and how they got completely different results. But that's just curious speculation on my part.

[willflop]

The only flaw in your Duke comparison with LU is that LU is definitely not testing the same way Duke is. If we’re going to assume that the other VA schools’ true number is higher, it’s probably fair to assume that there’s also a significant number of asymptomatic LU students not being tested as well. After all, a good number of the students are vaccinated, they just haven’t been mandated to at this point.

Yes, I had considered that, so the way I worded it above may be misleading. LU very well could have more in the end, but there are a lot of unknown variables. My supposition is that we are testing more than Tech, but obviously not at the same rate as Duke. And, the students we do test would have a higher hit rate because we are only testing students with more obvious symptoms.

But on the other hand, Duke's numbers are from a 7 day cumulative, while Liberty's are 10 day. Our 7 day number (8/22 to 8/28) was 285 (vs. there's at 349). This 285 almost doubled by 8/31, to 535. If Duke has a similar trending the next 3 days of their reporting, they could be close to 700 and reporting about 30% more than LU for the same time period. Between the unknowns and that 30% overage, there may be enough room to fudge comparability.

Either way, the real comparability is between Duke and Tech's mandatory vaccine and mask protocols and how they got completely different results. But that's just curious speculation on my part.

The other factor I failed to mention is the impact of contact tracing. Duke is using a brute force algorithm, 100% testing for 100% of the results. If we apply the 80/20 principle to Liberty's method, it's possible they are getting 80% of the results of brute force testing while only testing 20% of the population, since they are using a graph/network algorithm. LU gets 100 positive students, those with direct contact either have to quarantine or get tested. These tests result in more asymptomatic positives along with another network of contract tracing tests. Eventually, this spider webs throughout 20% of the population and captures 80% of the potential symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.

[Whatisthetruth]

It appears Scott Lamb is admitting the school knew infected students would be returning. So, nobody should be surprised there is a massive outbreak on campus. I am sure it is also someone else's fault, probably the devil and the media. The solution might be to follow Jr's playbook and declare it a coup and a criminal conspiracy. Perhaps get the meanest lawyer in NY back down to interrogate the staff again.

When asked for comment, university spokesperson Scott Lamb told Yahoo Finance that it was unsurprising to see cases shoot up given that as of "two weeks ago, these people were [not] in Lynchburg at all" and that now "they are here, and hence, the [numbers] have gone up."

https://news.yahoo.com/liberty-universi ... 37686.html

[prototype]

It appears Scott Lamb is admitting the school knew infected students would be returning. So, nobody should be surprised there is a massive outbreak on campus. I am sure it is also someone else's fault, probably the devil and the media. The solution might be to follow Jr's playbook and declare it a coup and a criminal conspiracy. Perhaps get the meanest lawyer in NY back down to interrogate the staff again.

When asked for comment, university spokesperson Scott Lamb told Yahoo Finance that it was unsurprising to see cases shoot up given that as of "two weeks ago, these people were [not] in Lynchburg at all" and that now "they are here, and hence, the [numbers] have gone up."

https://news.yahoo.com/liberty-universi ... 37686.html

I think that was a pretty obvious observation. when 13K students from all over the country come in - you will have more cases. It's a virus! Let's act like we have seen one before. Might not like the analogy, but it's pretty much the flu, without Tamiflu.

[rogers3]

Not to spend time on trying to figure out what was going on at Duke, I think it's more interesting to look at what smaller schools like University of Lynchburg did this year. The reason some of these schools had so much lighter burden when it comes to covid is that they asked students to quarantine before coming to school and they also required negative covid tests before allowing students on campus. Students are rather compliant regarding those protocols because they don't want to go online and they want to be at school. If you limit the number of students coming on campus campus based on that information, you certainly will have much lower numbers. couple that with vaccine requirements and mask requirements... It can certainly make a huge difference.

[stokesjokes]

It appears Scott Lamb is admitting the school knew infected students would be returning. So, nobody should be surprised there is a massive outbreak on campus. I am sure it is also someone else's fault, probably the devil and the media. The solution might be to follow Jr's playbook and declare it a coup and a criminal conspiracy. Perhaps get the meanest lawyer in NY back down to interrogate the staff again.

When asked for comment, university spokesperson Scott Lamb told Yahoo Finance that it was unsurprising to see cases shoot up given that as of "two weeks ago, these people were [not] in Lynchburg at all" and that now "they are here, and hence, the [numbers] have gone up."

https://news.yahoo.com/liberty-universi ... 37686.html

I think that was a pretty obvious observation. when 13K students from all over the country come in - you will have more cases. It's a virus! Let's act like we have seen one before. Might not like the analogy, but it's pretty much the flu, without Tamiflu.

Yeah, making little details seem bigger than they are only serves to make it easier to dismiss the big deals that are going on.

Side note- I’m obviously super anti-conspiracy here, but Tamiflu is the real hoax. The last time I had the flu, the doctor prescribed me tamiflu and told me that, if I took it, I’d have the flu for 6 days instead of 7. That stuff was like 80 bucks with insurance too.

[prototype]

Not to spend time on trying to figure out what was going on at Duke, I think it's more interesting to look at what smaller schools like University of Lynchburg did this year. The reason some of these schools had so much lighter burden when it comes to covid is that they asked students to quarantine before coming to school and they also required negative covid tests before allowing students on campus. Students are rather compliant regarding those protocols because they don't want to go online and they want to be at school. If you limit the number of students coming on campus campus based on that information, you certainly will have much lower numbers. couple that with vaccine requirements and mask requirements... It can certainly make a huge difference.

I’ve said hundred of times. You want the Vax - get the vax. You want to wear a mask - where a mask. You mandate it - you might as well close Liberty - because half the students are leaving. We need to learn to live with this thing and I get it - hospitals are stressed. Ok - it’s their jobs to deal with people with sickness. It’s also their jobs to figure out most efficient way to tend to their communities. Most patients, especially students, don’t need ICU - they need a place to feel bad for a few weeks and recover. Less then 2% of our liberty population had Covid and not one student or teacher is in ICU or died. We need to stop overreacting and use some common sense here.