- December 4th, 2024, 11:51 pm
#665074
Do you favor SEC just because? Or do you actually think Bama and South Carolina would beat Indiana and SMU? Or both?
If I were a committee member, I’d watch every play of every game. Then I’d ask myself, “Who would win if these teams played each other on a neutral field?” Problem is. as has been said, once you open it up to 12 teams, there are going to be team in and on the bubble who have distinct blemishes on their resume. So which Alabama shows up in my hypothetical neutral site scenario? Which South Carolina? Which Ole Miss?
I think with Indiana and SMU, you know what you got. And that’s why they are in. But if you just eyeball them, I believe both would lose to any of Bama/SC/Ole Miss. UNLESS, the bad version of them shows up.
To just my eye, when the best version of Bama/Ole Miss, SC, Indiana, SMU shows up….Ole Miss is the best, then Bama. SC is the hottest right now. If SMU and Indiana had played Bama/Ole Miss’ schedule, they would have 3 or more losses.
The case against SC is open and shut: they lost to both Bama and Ole Miss.
So I really wish Bama and Ole Miss had played this season. I guess we could look at how they fared against common opponents:
-They both beat Georgia at home.
-They both beat South Carolina. Bama barely and at home, Ole Miss convincingly and at Columbia.
-Bama beat LSU convincingly on the road, Ole Miss lost a squeaker to LSU on the road.
—Ole Miss beat Oklahoma at home, Bama got crushed by Oklahoma on the road.
Ole Miss and Alabama have the same best win, against No. 5 Georgia. But Alabama came within minutes of one of the most epic collapses in college football history, narrowly escaping with a seven-point win. Ole Miss, on the other hand, beat Georgia by 18 in a game that was never particularly close. In fact, do you know the last team to beat Georgia by more points than Ole Miss did this year? That would be the 2019 LSU Tigers, arguably the best college football team ever assembled.
Alabama lost to SP+ Nos. 8, 31 and 58 for an average of 32.3. Ole Miss lost to SP+ Nos. 17, 22 and 48 for an average of 29.0.
So, on average, the Rebels' losses weren't as bad as Alabama's. Their wins were markedly better than Alabama's. Their underlying stats are better than Alabama's. Their schedule strength was effectively equal to Alabama's.
So I can’t figure out why Alabama is in the 11th spot and not Ole Miss.
But all of that is moot because I actually think Miami is most deserving of the final spot. The Canes demolished Florida, a team that beat Ole Miss. The Canes demolished USF, a team that took Alabama into the fourth quarter in Tuscaloosa. The Canes have two road losses by a combined nine points against two pretty good teams -- No. 22 Syracuse and a 7-5 Georgia Tech team that just took Georgia to eight overtimes (and probably should've won if the officials had been watching the game). QB Cam Ward is extraordinary, the offense is fun, the Canes can play with pretty much anyone, and none of their losses are bad. Giving the 12th playoff spot to Miami would've been an easy win for the committee. Instead, it chose pain. They docked Miami more spots for a road loss to the No. 22 team in the country than it did for Ohio State losing to 7-5 Michigan. WHY?!
Two things to watch:
1) if SMU loses, does committee drop them completely out? Sets an interesting and potentially dangerous precedent to penalize a team that lost the “extra” game they earned. And in the past, the committee hasn’t done that (TCU a few years back).
2) How do other losses affect the seedlings? If Georgia loses to Texas, how far do they fall and could Tennessee move up to get a home game? Does the committee try to avoid conference matchups in the first round?
Without a doubt, every matchup is a banger. Records will be broken for number of viewers. Tons more money will be made. Going to 12 will serve the purpose of greed. And it will produce an undisputed national champ.
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