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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#664429
Ok boys and girls it’s the Night Before Make sure to leave Diet Cokes and Big Macs out for Trump or Sing Joy to the World for Harris. This has been an insane election cycle, especially since mid July. If Trump wins the Legacy Media will be on its last leg. If Harris wins the GOP will be hard pressed to recover. Everyone is making predictions and no one has a clue.
I got Harris close ot Trump in a blow out. I’m also putting $5 on a Tie because……why not!
Cider Jim liked this
By thepostman
#664430
I'm just happy I can watch sports poltical ad free.

Every swing state is within the margin of error which means it could be close or one candidate could win easily. It's wild how it could shape up.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#664431
thepostman wrote: November 4th, 2024, 9:03 pm I'm just happy I can watch sports poltical ad free.

Every swing state is within the margin of error which means it could be close or one candidate could win easily. It's wild how it could shape up.
That’s why I’m going with a tie!
By JK37
Registration Days Posts
#664445
She's not a good candidate. Not as likable as Biden. It's like they learned nothing from Hillary's bomb in 2016. Trump is vulnerable! But you need a decent candidate to do it. Biden was a better performing candidate in 2020. Hillary and Kamala both rate so unlikable by their Dem base.

Trump got more voter turnout in rural GA, rural NC and suburban and rural VA. Big increase in same-day registration in Wisconsin. Also ticket-splitters in NC fell Trump's way big time. People who didn't vote in 2020, came back to the polls for him in 2024.

RNC finally embraced mail-in and early voting, so not as much of an advantage for Dems there. And too many Dems in the collar counties of PA stayed home. Which means the unlikability of Harris hurt them.

Big swing in the Senate. House race still very close.

Dems thought abortion mandate on the ticket would help turnout. Problem is, it also got more repubs and independents out for Trump who otherwise may not have come out.

It's all about voter turnout. If turnout is high, that usually favors the challenger. The confusing part in this election coming in was, who is the "challenger"? We're seeing the nation looks at him as the challenger to the current administration. She tried to separate herself from Biden, and it failed.

There are 25 counties in the entire US that voted for Obama, flipped to Trump in 2016, and flipped back to Biden in 2020. Fascinating!!

CNN showed a map of all counties where Trump is performing at least 3% or more higher than he did in 2020. It's all over, and it's traditionally red counties as well in blue areas. Who knew he could squeeze out MORE votes from these places? Apparently not the DNC. And that’s the big story early: more people than before in his base coming out to vote for him.

Latino men went for Trump by 10%. In 2020, they went for Biden by 23%. A 33% swing! Wow! The economic message really resonated.

The Democratic Party would've benefited a lot more from a full-fledged primary to come up with a more viable candidate.

“The fact that Kamala Harris is going home tonight and not speaking to her party, is amateur hour. It’s childish.” -Reince Preibus

Trump never stopped hammering the economy and immigration. Winning strategy.

"Democrats are bleeding votes in rural America. And there's not enough turnout in cities. Trump keeps finding more votes in rural districts. He's always been underestimated by democrats. And tonight, it costs them. " -Obama's campaign manager on NBC

The hardest demographic to get to turn out are males under 30. Trump figured out a way to get them to the polls, and to vote for him. Most politicians in his position would’ve asked Nikki Haley to come on board. He didn’t. That was bold! Instead, he went after the young males. And we’re learning now, it was probably a winning strategy. Trump bucking trends and winning for it. Again. It’s nuts how many times he’s done that!

Another topic: Abortion rights are winning big across the country. Everywhere but Florida. Dems thought it would help them. But this campaign may become best known for how much ticket-splitting is going on.

Kamala did two points WORSE with women than Joe Biden. That is...STAGGERING!

The age of identity politics as we know it is over. The Dems better adjust. Don’t bring out a DEI candidate. Bring someone who can deliver substance on the issues. Or kiss your party goodbye for 40 years.

And one last thing: Joe Biden absolutely SCREWED his party. He said in 2020 he was a “transition candidate”. Then he ran again! Maybe because there wasn’t a viable candidate. But a true primary process would’ve gleaned one. I don’t believe Kamala is a good candidate, but he gave her little chance with only 107 days.
By paradox
Registration Days Posts
#664447
Democracy is about the people……not elites forcing their agenda on the population. The people definitely won last night.
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By prototype
Registration Days Posts
#664449
This is a great day for America. Might not like Trump, but he's much better for our country and has a better chance, then Harris, to get us back on track...

Can we go back to doing gender reveals yet? or do we have to wait until January?

I hope he closes that southern border until some compromises can be reached. I don't know how you deport all the illegals, there's literally millions of them... But, I wouldn't mind seeing all people in this country that are not a citizen or do not have an official green card (now or in process) have to simply fill out paperwork to obtain a temporary work visa, if they have a job here. We freeze all rights to drive, healthcare, education and anything else government related until they obtain a federal license to be here. It sounds harsh, but every other country does this and they track down visitors that overstay their travel visas. We shouldn't be any different - we should just be better at it. Technology is there to make this happen.

I do hope that Dems and Republicans just do their jobs and not spend the next 4 years in court and congressional hearings playing politics. There's a lot of work to be done, and it's about time we spend the time on the stuff that matters.

Now - let's hope the House stays Red and Trump uses the power to make real change. Then in 4 years - VP Vance can keep America great. Only can imagine who the Dems roll out next time;) Probably Michelle Obama, who would be the worst candidate ever - worse then Harris - at least Harris has experience.
jmclaughlin liked this
By paradox
Registration Days Posts
#664450
You can love him, hate him, or reside somewhere in between, but it’s hard not to admire his resolve. Never has a leader, in our lifetime, taken on, and overcome so many obstacles.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#664453
I don't really get into the political discussions but I'll make an exception today. Being in korea until recently I've never been more unengaged for an election so I can't pretend to know all of the details but it's been interesting watching how this one played out from a casual perspective. It felt like the democrats lost this election more than trump won it. It's been a strategic disaster from the beginning with biden going back on his promise not to seek reelection then the DNC forcing him to step down in the 11th hour and declaring kamala as the heir apparent without any input from their voters. Outside of her "I own a gun" rhetoric she did almost nothing to appeal to anyone outside of her base and in some cases alienated parts of her base to appeal to other parts of her base such as forgoing the AL Smith dinner which ticked off left leaning catholics. I also think labeling trump as an extremist only motivated his base more than her own. The anti trump crowd was already going to vote against him.

From the Republicans perspective you couldn't ask for a much better outcome whether you like trump or not. Even if you don't like the guy you have to like that he'll do his 4 years and can't run for office again. If he lost this one there's no doubt in my mind he would keep running until he wins or dies. That would've been a disaster for the republican party but the RNC couldn't have done to trump what the DNC did to biden and forced him out of the race.
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By jmclaughlin
Posts
#664457
It will be interesting to see the coverage of Kamala by the MSM now that they are no longer propping up a historically abysmal candidate. Oh the stories that could be tee'd up by Biden / Harris staffers if they decide to make a $$. And why wouldn't they now that there will not be the same levers of power to thwart their voice.
Can you imagine the outtakes that exist?? Everything the Harris campaign did was fake, from day 1.
By Humble_Opinion
Registration Days Posts
#664459
I've seen a bunch of takes on the why's of how Kamala lost and Trump won, but what I want to know is how in the heck did Biden get 80M votes in 2020?? Consider the below... From 2020 to 2024 we saw a decrease of 16.8 million votes, or almost 11% of the total electorate. Trump's decline was about 2.5M, but from Biden in 2020 to Kamala there was a 16.8M drop. :dontgetit

in millions
Year......Rep.....Dem.....Total
2016.....63.0.....65.9 .....128.9
2020.....74.2.....81.3 .....155.5 :BS
2024.....71.8.....66.9 .....138.7
TH Spangler liked this
By ballcoach15
Registration Days Posts
#664460
Harris was worst candidate ever for President. Totally 100% unqualified. Has zero leadership ability. All she's good for is laughing.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#664466
Humble_Opinion wrote: November 6th, 2024, 1:19 pm I've seen a bunch of takes on the why's of how Kamala lost and Trump won, but what I want to know is how in the heck did Biden get 80M votes in 2020?? Consider the below... From 2020 to 2024 we saw a decrease of 16.8 million votes, or almost 11% of the total electorate. Trump's decline was about 2.5M, but from Biden in 2020 to Kamala there was a 16.8M drop. :dontgetit

in millions
Year......Rep.....Dem.....Total
2016.....63.0.....65.9 .....128.9
2020.....74.2.....81.3 .....155.5 :BS
2024.....71.8.....66.9 .....138.7
I guess it just shows how popular Obama and his legacy is and how unpopular Hillary and kamala are among democrats.
By Humble_Opinion
Registration Days Posts
#664468
Ill flame wrote:
Humble_Opinion wrote: November 6th, 2024, 1:19 pm I've seen a bunch of takes on the why's of how Kamala lost and Trump won, but what I want to know is how in the heck did Biden get 80M votes in 2020?? Consider the below... From 2020 to 2024 we saw a decrease of 16.8 million votes, or almost 11% of the total electorate. Trump's decline was about 2.5M, but from Biden in 2020 to Kamala there was a 16.8M drop. :dontgetit

in millions
Year......Rep.....Dem.....Total
2016.....63.0.....65.9 .....128.9
2020.....74.2.....81.3 .....155.5 :BS
2024.....71.8.....66.9 .....138.7
I guess it just shows how popular Obama and his legacy is and how unpopular Hillary and kamala are among democrats.
In 2008 Obama received 69.5M total votes. In 2012 that dropped to 65.9M, which oddly enough is almost the same as what Hillary got in 2016. Kamala did just a little bit better... the point is all of it is an aberration compared to what Biden got in 2020. It doesn't make sense.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#664469
Lookit. I gave yall most of the day to do this. You have all failed. Honestly Trump should have come out to this

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By TH Spangler
Registration Days Posts
#664472
Three errors democrats made. 1- Walz. 2- Locking arms with Liz Halliburton. Cheney, Sanders are like oil and water, don't mix. And 3- Campaigning for black votes by pedaling government programs. Comes across disrespectful. They want better jobs, more pay,lower fuel prices, and cheaper trips to Foodlion. Like all Americans.
By JK37
Registration Days Posts
#664473
They’ve been doing #3 my whole life.

Caught a political analyst talking about how the country tends to shift politically about every 30-40 years. Comes and goes in cycles. 1968-1992. 1992-2022. Maybe this is another shift. If the Latinos have gone this far right, I don’t see how the Dems can rise again without changing, just like Bill helped them change in the early 90’s. IMO, they need to get back to center.
TH Spangler liked this
By paradox
Registration Days Posts
#664474
From a practical standpoint, they likely know that’s true. But, they’ve cut ties with their best options. And Dem elites are the ones who have become tone-deaf w/voters.
By Humble_Opinion
Registration Days Posts
#664476
Another thing that isn't being talked about is the impacts that the next census updates are going to have on the electoral college. The way the map works out, Democrats are going to lose electoral votes in CA, NY and several key states and states like FL, NC, GA and TX will be the beneficiaries. From what I've seen, Democrats could potentially win the traditional "blue wall" (WI, MI and PA) and still lose the election.

If Trump takes this mandate and implements common sense reforms and governs like the populist he is, this could be a long-term change. While I know it's not necessarily popular on this forum, allowing the states to have control over social issues like abortion, will remove a key piece of ammo from the Democrats playbook. Personally, I think abortion should be banned once there's a heartbeat, with a few carveouts for extreme cases (child incest/rape, etc.). I think what the right to life lobby needs to do is to focus on winning races in the states by continuing to expose the abortion lobby for what it is and winning the hearts/minds of everyday folks. We can still achieve our pro-life policy goals under the current legal status quo.
jmclaughlin liked this
By stokesjokes
Registration Days Posts
#664479
Humble_Opinion wrote: November 6th, 2024, 4:54 pm
Ill flame wrote:
Humble_Opinion wrote: November 6th, 2024, 1:19 pm I've seen a bunch of takes on the why's of how Kamala lost and Trump won, but what I want to know is how in the heck did Biden get 80M votes in 2020?? Consider the below... From 2020 to 2024 we saw a decrease of 16.8 million votes, or almost 11% of the total electorate. Trump's decline was about 2.5M, but from Biden in 2020 to Kamala there was a 16.8M drop. :dontgetit

in millions
Year......Rep.....Dem.....Total
2016.....63.0.....65.9 .....128.9
2020.....74.2.....81.3 .....155.5 :BS
2024.....71.8.....66.9 .....138.7
I guess it just shows how popular Obama and his legacy is and how unpopular Hillary and kamala are among democrats.
In 2008 Obama received 69.5M total votes. In 2012 that dropped to 65.9M, which oddly enough is almost the same as what Hillary got in 2016. Kamala did just a little bit better... the point is all of it is an aberration compared to what Biden got in 2020. It doesn't make sense.
Here's the explanation:

https://x.com/JaredWalczak/status/1854336113487516085

tl;dr, not all votes have been counted yet, there's about 15 million still outstanding. The difference is the election is already called, so no one is paying attention to these numbers.
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