If you want to talk ASUN smack or ramble ad nauseum about your favorite pro or major college teams, this is the place to let it rip.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke

By ATrain
Registration Days Posts
#664031
I mean, there's always a chance, but the last AAC expansion targeted media markets like Charlotte, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, etc. IF that's still their philosophy, I can see them going after MTSU, Georgia State, ODU, Sam Houston State, etc...

We all know Air Force is on their wish list, but the Falcons have apparently made it clear they're not going anywhere.
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By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#664034
To me, 95% chance our next conference is the AAC. There will be pressure for them to add a strong team to compete with the PAC 7 for the best non P4.

I don’t think it will happen until the ACC collapse, but it’s fun to continue to speculate.
By Humble_Opinion
Registration Days Posts
#664037
SHSU spends $25M on their athletics. The gain in revenue by jumping to the AAC might get them over $30M, but not by much. The average AAC school spends closer to $60M, so it's hard to think that SHSU would be able to compete on the level necessary. I don't think any CUSA team will be a target, including LU. My bet is they look to JMU, App State, ODU or Ga State. JMU/App State from a brand/competition perspective and ODU/Ga State from a market strategy standpoint.
By jimflamesfan
Registration Days Posts
#664040
But I don't think a Sunbelt team leaves for the AAC. I think the Sunbelt views themselves almost at AAC level already and they like their conference footprint so why move to a place with longer travel and a harder road to a championship. I mean if JMU or App State are offered AAC I think both say no thank you we are happy where we are. The AAC might have to pick from CUSA or the MAC.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#664041
I don't think we can make broad strokes statements about conferences in this round of realignment because they all come with serious pros and cons. I believe texas state would leave in a heartbeat if the AAC came calling so they can be with the 3 other Texas schools plus Tulsa. They are on an island in the sunbelt so geographically its just a better fit for them. The same to a lesser extent could be said about arkansas state but the AAC isn't calling them.

I'm not convinced app state wouldn't jump if called. Having two in state schools to play against annually could be very appealing to them. JMU might like that the AAC is a more well rounded conference rather than being all in on football like the sunbelt is. That's not even getting into how bad the sunbelts tv deal is. No other conference has fewer games on linear TV than them.

The sunbelt has a good thing going right now and it's basically a lateral move to the AAC at this point but I wouldn't put it past certain sunbelt teams to leave in the right circumstances.
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#664051
Sac State can dream of the Pac all they want. But the reality is that a school that is lucky to get 200 to show up for basketball games is not getting into the Pac. I would even suggest that the MWC would be too big of a step up for the Hornets at this stage. It has the market and the enrollmenmt, but very little else.

The Pac is not at the desperate stage anymore. They can circle back and try once again to poach the AAC or fall back and take a Texas State or Hawaii to meet the minimum requirements. They are now in a position of strength.

The poaching lawsuit is the key. If they wind up having to pay the poaching penalties to the MWC then the fallbacks are their best available options. However if the poaching penalties that they agreed to less than a year ago are lowered, or somehow dismissed, then the warchest is replenished to seriously pursue their AAC targets.
By Humble_Opinion
Registration Days Posts
#664071
Maybe I missed it, but it seems there was an effort by the PAC to add a football only member in UCONN and they were rebuffed. To me that shows they're getting a little more desperate, which could mean they sweeten the deal a little to try and poach an AAC team or two. If that doesn't work, then perhaps we start to rise up the board a little bit... one can hope :)
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#664073
There is no question that now that there is some level of clarity to what the Pac is going to look like in general, they are in a better position to reassess the situation. Once they get some idea what their existing value is to the networks they can then move from a position of strength toward the assets that the neworks find the most attractive. The networks that don't start with an 'E' or 'F' might value having the ability of having multiple time slots available to get the most bang from their contracts. That is why having a few teams east of the Mississippi could be attractive. Theoretically a network could have three consecutive time slots to sell to advertisers. That would be attractive to a network like the CW that currently has the Pac rights if they chose to bid on the next big contract. Ditto for West Coast-based Amazon or Apple.

Once again, the Pac warchest is currently tied up in litigation tied to an agreement they made with the MWC just a year ago promising to pay substantial fees if they stole schools from the league. Obviously they did just that and have filed a lawsuit to avoid paying the poaching fees upon which they had just moths before agreed. If they wind up paying all those fees, they won't have the resources to present an attractuive package to the AAC schools. If however, the poaching fees are tossed by a friendly court or significantly lowered then the AAC would be very vulnerable. As we have seen recently with CUSA chasing the six schools who exited early to join the AAC the court system typically leans toward settlements somewhere in between. I will be surprised if the Pac doesn't not get the poaching fees at least cut in half. That might be enough to legitimately target 2-3 AAC schools. I am thinking Memphis, Tulane & UTSA and perhaps tack on Texas State from the Belt. the initial offer made by the Pac to these schools was indeed insulting. It could be significantly sweetened at the uttering of a judge.
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By BlueBlood
Posts
#664084
Yeah, I agree that the interest in NIU and Toledo seems really weird. Nothing about either school screams "Mountain West". I've always thought that one or two MAC schools might go AAC at some point and try to separate themselves from the rest of the MAC pack. That seems more natural. But the MWC just seems like a strange/desperate partnership. And why NIU? Is it because of the ND win? Because other than that, they've pretty much been a .500 team the last 10 years.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#664085
BlueBlood wrote: October 15th, 2024, 8:53 am Yeah, I agree that the interest in NIU and Toledo seems really weird. Nothing about either school screams "Mountain West". I've always thought that one or two MAC schools might go AAC at some point and try to separate themselves from the rest of the MAC pack. That seems more natural. But the MWC just seems like a strange/desperate partnership. And why NIU? Is it because of the ND win? Because other than that, they've pretty much been a .500 team the last 10 years.
The only reason I can think of to add NIU is for the Chicago market but they are very far down the list of teams in that city. I can see why the AAC would want to add them since adding teams in big markets that have no brand recognition in that market is their thing but the MWC is kind of the opposite and I can't see many of those recruits in the west suburbs near Dekalb wanting to play in that conference. I think many of them would prefer to play in the MVFC.
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#664087
Both potential adds are head scratchers. But they clearly are getting counsel to look that direction from somewhere. I assume it is current & potential media partners. But then again, it probably is consultants who used to run in those circles. Believe it or not, I actually do some consulting directly to the networks. And I think these MAC football-only adds would be lunacy.

If they are deadset on Central & Eastern Time Zones, there are much more attractive options to pursue. Perhaps the MWC considers these the best that they reasonably can acquire.

Now think of it from NIU & Toledo's perspective. Is a few extra bones in media distribution worth disenfranchising your alumni and fanbases? While we have farflung alumni, those schools have alumni bases typically remaining in the Great Lakes. And most of their football games would then be at kicking off at 9 or 10pm at night. I can tell you that as someone who used to cover Rice in their WAC days that it can be brutal. If this werr the Pac, I could see the attraction. But the current lineup of the MWC is not super enticing.
By ATrain
Registration Days Posts
#664093
Would NIU and Toledo be allowed to keep their other sports in the MAC? Or would they get the same ultimatum that UMass got: all in or all out?
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#664094
They would have to push their Olympics to another league. The Horizon would be their most likely destination.

Honestly I could see NIU considering the option since they aren't exactly super tight with the rest of the league. But outside of football, they are pretty awful. So the Horizon would likely be their only option. Toledo could potentially have a few leagues to petition.
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By LUGrad2000
Registration Days Posts
#664151
Any chance we can get Washington St. or Oregon St. scheduled? I keep seeing other G5’s getting home and homes with Toledo getting 25 and 31 scheduled. They will need multiple non conference games with the PAC 8.
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#664152
I can say with certsainty that Ian & Mickey have worked the lines to Wazzu & Oregon State. Hopefully something develops that enables us to buy out of an existing game or two.
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By ATrain
Registration Days Posts
#664153
Brett McMurphy reporting that Sam Houston State told the MWC "not interested," when they came calling.
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By aredd33
Registration Days Posts
#664154
ATrain wrote: October 19th, 2024, 6:37 pm Brett McMurphy reporting that Sam Houston State told the MWC "not interested," when they came calling.
Wow, that’s a really interesting decision by their administration.
By ATrain
Registration Days Posts
#664162
JK37 wrote: October 20th, 2024, 12:47 pm Ummmm. :dontgetit

No.
Look at who the MWC is losing, and they're backfilling with the bottom of CUSA. 2026 CUSA will be better than 2026 MWC.
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#664165
As for Sam, unless Texas State is headed to the MWC (and they are not), the MWC has little of interest for the Bearkats. They already were in a Western-based league in the WAC and recognized that being out there is not utopia. It wouldn't be any closer from a regional perspective and would not include what they consider to be their peer schools. The few extra media dollars they would get would be burned up in travel.

Now if Texas State did go the MWC, suddenly that league would appear much more attractive. The Bobcats could potentially be a fallback for the Pac or could get the call to the AAC. And life as the western outpost of the Belt has been OK for the folks in San Marcos. So once again, TSU to the MWC is unlikely which means the same for SHSU.

The Sam Houston men's AD did mention they would have interest in the Belt which would bring more regional schools into play. But once again, a good chunk of that attraction is that their oldest rival and sister school Texas State currently sits there. The SHSU womens AD is my neighbor. They are beyond excited about how the last few years have played out for them.
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