[cruzan_flame13]

Liberty has a better athletic program than 99% of G5s, and better than many P4s.

I wouldn't disagree, but lets not pretend like there's not circles amongst this business and LU is not involved. Because we have more money than many inside the country club, doesn't mean we will receive an invite for a membership. We are the 'radicals' in this scenario and will remain that way for a very long time.

[Ill flame]

It seems like the rumors that always pop up during conference realignment surrounding state governments not allowing one school to leave without another in state school are always speculation with very little truth to it.

[Ill flame]

I’m having a tough time seeing how this plays out to LUs advantage.
I know nothing but the way I see it the two most likely outcomes are
1-nothing really changes for us and CUSA.
2-western CUSA schools bolt and CUSA backfills with more FCS schools

1 would obviously be better but I feel like 2 is more likely.

Those two outcomes are very likely but it's not a stretch for Tulane and Memphis to leave pac 12 and AAC backfills with LU. They are currently sitting at an odd number of full members so they will likely want to add at least one school in the near future regardless of how this plays out. Who they would be interested in outside of air force for football only is anyone's guess at this point.

[Ill flame]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/577622 ... alignment/

Based on this article the following conferences are interested in the following schools. Of course its likely to shift quickly.

Pac 12:
Memphis/ Tulane (Top Target)
UTSA, Texas St, North Texas and/or South Florida. Of this group UTSA is the front runner.
UNLV
Air Force
Gonzaga (unlikely)

AAC:
Air Force (football only)

MWC:
UTEP
Texas St
SHSU

[LUOrange]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/577622 ... alignment/

Based on this article the following conferences are interested in the following schools. Of course its likely to shift quickly.

Pac 12:
Memphis/ Tulane (Top Target)
UTSA, Texas St, North Texas and/or South Florida. Of this group UTSA is the front runner.
UNLV
Air Force
Gonzaga (unlikely)

AAC:
Air Force (football only)

MWC:
UTEP
Texas St
SHSU

.
Air Force probably wouldn't go football only. Besides they're not terribly far for at least Tulsa and Wichita State. I'd also have a hard time seeing TX State leaving the SBC for a watered down MWC, especially when they they allegedly like the more southeastern based SBC.

[ballcoach15]

I've been in Memphis all week. Sources here tell me Memphis will probably hold out for an invitation from ACC or Big 12. They want to go P4, but are scared new PAC 12 might not be a Power conference.

[Ill flame]

UTSAs coach confirmed that there are active talks between them and the pac 6 going on. If UTSA, Tulane, Memphis and either USF or UNLV decide to jump, it would certainly be worthwhile to offer to take a significantly smaller tv payout to join the conference while receiving no assistance paying to buyout CUSA. Of course theyll say no but it never hurts to try. Regardless I'm hoping those teams leaving makes AAC desperate enough to add us. It wouldn't be a massive improvement over CUSA but I wouldn't complain about being in the same conference as ECU.

[Kricket]

UTSAs coach confirmed that there are active talks between them and the pac 6 going on. If UTSA, Tulane, Memphis and either USF or UNLV decide to jump, it would certainly be worthwhile to offer to take a significantly smaller tv payout to join the conference while receiving no assistance paying to buyout CUSA. Of course theyll say no but it never hurts to try. Regardless I'm hoping those teams leaving makes AAC desperate enough to add us. It wouldn't be a massive improvement over CUSA but I wouldn't complain about being in the same conference as ECU.

It’s hard for me to imagine all those AAC schools going but if so being in a conference with Air Force, Army, and Navy also would be fun and would attract crowds.

[JK37]

I realize that would be a nice jump for LU.

But why would those other schools in the AAC want to join those western schools? Does it really move the needle that much for them?

[cruzan_flame13]

I realize that would be a nice jump for LU.

But why would those other schools in the AAC want to join those western schools? Does it really move the needle that much for them?

If somehow the PAC convince that they could be treated like a power autonomy, then maybe it wouldn't seem like a bad offer. That includes a pretty valid deal, which the commissioner used to get those MW schools to join the conference in the first place. Not 100% sure, but looks like the commissioner "bluff" is causing quite a little chaos . Right now she has the rest of the G5 conferences shaking in their boots

[Ill flame]

I realize that would be a nice jump for LU.

But why would those other schools in the AAC want to join those western schools? Does it really move the needle that much for them?

AAC schools are currently getting around $7 million a year from their tv deal but ESPN has a "look in" on their TV contract in 3 years that will likely lead to them lowering the payout with Houston, UCF and cincy gone. Meanwhile I've seen sources projecting the new pac 12 to get in the $10-15 million range. Besides the money I think they are caught in a type of prisoners dilemma where even if they don't want to leave AAC they would rather leave than be stuck without the other top schools.

[LUGrad2000]

Just based on financial reasoning/makes the most sense for perceived value, Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA to the Pac12. That gives them 11. That leaves AAC with 8. It is enough, but it is not enough for TV/Travel. They add 2-4. Air Force makes sense. UTEP and NMSU make sense geographically, but not financially. That leaves 9 in the AAC. 6 for MWC. UTEP and NMSU make sense for MWC to get to 8. CUSA really could not replace UTEP and NMSU and still have 10 when Delaware and MO St join. Might be some movement to the AAC and Sun Belt that benefit us at that time. MWC adds a couple Dakota schools and Montana schools to get back to 10.

[Ill flame]

I'm taking this source with a grain of salt but it's interesting.

[ATrain]

We are mentioned as a possible AAC candidate, with JMU and Texas State. However, it seems to depend on Memphis making a move:

https://sports.yahoo.com/go-west-the-ne ... 25431.html

[Kricket]

We are mentioned as a possible AAC candidate, with JMU and Texas State. However, it seems to depend on Memphis making a move:

https://sports.yahoo.com/go-west-the-ne ... 25431.html

Great to see us mentioned and interestingly with JMU. I wonder if JMU would jump from a strong Sun Belt if offered. Not sure what their exit fee is but would that be a big enough jump? I’m kind of thinking that we may be in a unique spot that we see AAC as an upgrade that they Sun Belt may not, while also being willing to pay our exit fee. The C-USA exit fee had been 3 million but not sure what it is right now.

That being said…

I just don’t see the revenue distribution being high enough right now to lure Memphis. They have to be thinking the ACC will have spots in the next 5 years and for them to exit the article mentions they’d have to pay 10-25 million to the AAC. Essentially they’d pay an exit fee and more travel that would completely offset any value they get from tv revenue if their end goal is truly ACC.

[Sly Fox]

Memphis has to be feeling like the projected Pac consortium is basically a lateral move with late games and questionale economics. I could see Tulane being much more intrigued but needing some Texan brothers to make it worth their while. Much like SMU, oil & gas money has them in a different position than most fo the publics being discussed.

I still believe that Texas State ultimately is a better play for the Pac than UTSA sitting squarely in the middle of the Austin-San Antonio corridor. Yes, Texas State's brief ascendancy in football is like to be short-lived as soon as GJ Kinne makes the obvious move to Baylor in December. But IMHO it has bigger long-term potential across the board for the Pac. And unless UTSA or Texas State are in the fold, there is going to be little interest from Sammy. But if either of them come into play, Pac has to be at least reaching out to gauge interest with the Greater Houston market in play. Rice is only coming as a package deal with Tulane and I am not even convinced that is enough for either party to make the move west. Both of those schools have histories of being in western-based conferences and the impact that has in disengaging their supporters. You'll notice that I didn't mention fans for Rice & Tulane since both are sorely lacking at both schools. Their graduates rarely are interest in athletics.

Everyone that seems to be in any way connected to USF believes the Bulls are Big XII/ACC or Bust.

[ATrain]

Apparently plan B for the PAC, if they don't get Memphis/Tulane/USF, is Utah State, UNLV, and Air Force:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/utah-state ... 31252.html

[Sly Fox]

I maintain that I would love to see Utah State land in CUSA with us. Logan is a cool town and this would become a great road trip every other year.

[Purple Haize]

Apparently plan B for the PAC, if they don't get Memphis/Tulane/USF, is Utah State, UNLV, and Air Force:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/utah-state ... 31252.html

UNLV and Air Force just seem logical for the PAC at this point. Utah St or even Nevada would be a good pick up as well

[Ill flame]

We are mentioned as a possible AAC candidate, with JMU and Texas State. However, it seems to depend on Memphis making a move:

https://sports.yahoo.com/go-west-the-ne ... 25431.html

Great to see us mentioned and interestingly with JMU. I wonder if JMU would jump from a strong Sun Belt if offered. Not sure what their exit fee is but would that be a big enough jump? I’m kind of thinking that we may be in a unique spot that we see AAC as an upgrade that they Sun Belt may not, while also being willing to pay our exit fee. The C-USA exit fee had been 3 million but not sure what it is right now.

That being said…

I just don’t see the revenue distribution being high enough right now to lure Memphis. They have to be thinking the ACC will have spots in the next 5 years and for them to exit the article mentions they’d have to pay 10-25 million to the AAC. Essentially they’d pay an exit fee and more travel that would completely offset any value they get from tv revenue if their end goal is truly ACC.

For what it's worth it's being reported that the GOR for the PAC will end in 2030-2031 which is conveniently when the next round of realignment will most likely start back up. Memphis might be able to play have it both ways.

[Sly Fox]

A few extractions from Dodds' story:

CBS Sports plugged in the teams over the past 10 years as if a 12-team bracket had been in place. An average of 7.73 teams each season combined would have come from the Big Ten and SEC.

That essentially leaves four spots for around 100 remaining FBS schools after the Big Ten and SEC get their share.

CBS Sports was able to confirm UTEP and New Mexico State have not been contacted by the Mountain West as of Saturday.

The latest news seems to indicate FSU and Clemson will settle for a weighted share of the media rights rather than continue to engage legally.

He also guesses that the Pac will add UNLV, Urah State, Tulane & Memphis. He projects that the MWC will bring in UTEP, NM State along FCS call-ups ND State, SD State & Montana. Then the AAC will bring in just Air Force. All are possible, but again this is just his best guesses.

Click Here for Full Story

[ATrain]

Ross Dellenger reporting that Memphis, Tulane, and USF will release a statement indicating their intent to remain in the AAC.

PAC-12 now reportedly targeting Gonzaga, UNLV, Utah State, and Air Force.

AAC still looking to expand, and we all know their top target is Air Force.

It looks like the center of gravity around realignment has shifted from Memphis to Air Force.

[ballcoach15]

Why is AAC's top target Air Force ?

[ATrain]

Why is AAC's top target Air Force ?

Oh, I dunno - expansion into the Denver market, the prestige of having all three service academies, etc...

[ATrain]

Brett McMurphy reporting that Gonzaga IS going to the PAC-12.

UTSA has joined with USF, Memphis, and Tulane in releasing a statement announcing their commitment to the AAC.