[Kricket]

@cruzan_flame13 A lot has changed in our favor since 5 or 6 years ago. Why do you think that chance has passed?

[cruzan_flame13]

@cruzan_flame13 A lot has changed in our favor since 5 or 6 years ago. Why do you think that chance has passed?

Just based on what happen when SMU made the decision to get into the ACC. There was an immediate discussion to deny payouts to them from the CFP. I'm sure they don't want that chance to happen again, especially from a school like Liberty. It would be a threat to the 'Ol boys that Liberty can buy their way into anything. That's against their "standards."

[LUOrange]

I think we have an outside shot at a severely depleted ACC. But realistically, if we move, it'll be a depleted AAC or a reorganized mythical regional G5.

[Kricket]

@cruzan_flame13 A lot has changed in our favor since 5 or 6 years ago. Why do you think that chance has passed?

Just based on what happen when SMU made the decision to get into the ACC. There was an immediate discussion to deny payouts to them from the CFP. I'm sure they don't want that chance to happen again, especially from a school like Liberty. It would be a threat to the 'Ol boys that Liberty can buy their way into anything. That's against their "standards."

SMU is the biggest example of this, but… phasing payouts is super normal.

From ChatGPT:

1. Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland (Big Ten): When Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011, and Rutgers and Maryland followed in 2014, they did not immediately receive full shares of the Big Ten’s television revenue. These programs received partial revenue for several years before being phased into receiving full payouts.
2. West Virginia and TCU (Big 12): Both schools received a reduced share of TV revenue when they joined the Big 12 in 2012 as part of the conference’s realignment following the departures of Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, and Texas A&M.
3. USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington (Big Ten): When USC and UCLA announced they were joining the Big Ten in 2024, it was reported that Oregon and Washington, who followed suit, would receive reduced TV revenue in their early years in the Big Ten, especially in comparison to the longer-standing members of the conference.
4. Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU (Big 12): These schools joined the Big 12 in 2023, but it was agreed they would initially receive partial TV revenue shares before gradually being integrated into full revenue as part of their conference membership.

I don’t think they can ban taking less TV money or they’re have to sanction the rest of the schools doing the same thing.

[Sly Fox]

Not surprisingly, our biggest impediment to this Pac discussion is geographic. I don't seee them considering any schools east of the Mississippi outside of two schools along the Big Muddy ... Memphis & Tulane. And I don't consider either of those very likely at this stage. Memphis is in geographic no man's land. Tulane is more likely paired with a Texan school. But Stanford & Cal are no longer around to pressure for academic strength in expansion.

In most cases, we are not likely to get the benefit of the doubt in decision-making by the university presidents who make these decisions. However if a league is looking for an available school to make their numbers work for scheduling, we might be the right fit.

Obviously the scandals could be further in the rearview mirror as far as our candidacy. But athletics can make for some strange bedfellows. I honestly never thought I'd see the day that Texas would be slumming academically in the SEC. Yes, I know some of the institutions are strong. But economics can overcome arrogance.

At this stage, the Sun Belt has even less interest in us than ever before. Not only do they have their anti-private biases but they also have witnessed firsthand just how much our economic advantages can hurt them. So I honestly believe they are our least likely destination in where we head next. It all comes down to the fates of the MWC & ACC. Depending on their survival in the coming year or so, it will substantially determine the second tier landscape.

I suspect that the ACC has a similar fate to the Pac with the left-behinds putting together a best of the rest league. That is not out of reach based on our geography. Ditto for the AAC which likely is about to pick up AFA as a member if they don't get an invitation from the new Pac. On the other hand that Texan schools not named UTEP will have a tough decision about whether they want to play west or stick with the east. The Miners are gonzo at first opportunity just like NMSU. Even Sammy could be part of a group of Texan schools heading west.

The MWC is likely to survive in some fashion as a second FBS league in the west. But will it be picked so clean that it becomes irrelevant? It is not outlandish to believe CUSA could actually poach a school or two from the MWC ... New Mexico in particular. Such a suggestion just a week ago would have been insanity. While it remains unlikely the dominoes are becoming increasingly random.

Our most likely situation is to remain in CUSA for the time being. If the league loses its western flank it will become more regional. Personally I would have preferred to not have added all the FCS call-ups. But what is done is done. I do hope Judy holds the line and doesn't invite any other call-ups.

[ATrain]

Hopefully Judy is on the phone trying to stage a coup. If AFA and UNLV (lets be real, Vegas is a desirable market, and the Rebels going 2-0 against the Big XII to start the season definitely helps their case) to get PAC-number-to-be-determined invites (or AAC invites), she should be trying to recruit UNM and Nevada. It's a long shot, a crap shoot, a roll of the dice, a Hail Mary, etc... but the best defense is a good offense. Make some dominoes fall instead of waiting for them to fall.

As for the PAC-number-to-be-determined, I wouldn't be shocked to see them poach some schools from the AAC to get to 8, 10, 12, or whatever number they're aiming for.

Another thing to point out: the MAC has 13 members with UMass joining. Will WKU apply and will they take the Hilltoppers?

[Sly Fox]

WKU is not going to the MAC. That ship has sailed and won't be coming back into port. They are cpontent with the status quo unless the AAC comes calling.

The odds that the AAC snags the AFA have increased significantly as a result of the events of the past few days. The level of enticement may be impacted by what the Pac does next. Could they look into the Wild Blue Yonder of Colorado Springs next or could they possibly make a play into Texas, Tennessee or Louisiana?

As for the MWC left behinds, I am high on New Mexico but would happily pass on Nevada for Utah State. Better geography ... bigger airport and market ... better hoops ... of those who could be desperate they would be my second choice. I absolutely LOVE the State of Wyoming, but they would be on a quite an island out there.

And remember that it will be very costly to get any of the MWC schools out of that league. That's part of the reason why the Pac-2 have been so selective. CUSA doesn't have the glue to pull these teams out unless their is a total collapse.

[cruzan_flame13]

https://sports.yahoo.com/oregon-state-a ... iX2snKlo3J

Is this worth the risk for some teams in the east? I don't think schools like Memphis and Tulane would like to be included in their grant of rights. I wonder what is included in that deal? I thought this was interesting though:

Two of the Pac-12's newly added teams, Boise State and Colorado State, do not feature baseball programs. Barnes said he doesn't see that as a concern for the future of the Beavers' program.

"Even in the (old) Pac-12, we had deficiencies, right?" Barnes said. "Whether it was wrestling or gymnastics. One size doesn't fit all. So what we do is we move ahead and build around that. So that we're in a good position. Remember, we've got two to four more schools to get and we'll absolutely be leaning into a national school in addition to that.

Which four schools with a high football program plus national brand would benefit the PAC? They mightbas well go for the remaing top 4 G5 schools since geography is not limited. That t.v. deal better be good .

[Sly Fox]

My guess is the top tier of the AAC are their primary targets: Memphis, Tulane & South Florida. They envision being able to market a media deal that covers more time zones to give them flexibility in time slots.

I am not convinced that the Pac offers an attractive enough package to entice the easternmost schools. Remember there are exit fees and an uncertain Pac media rights future to consider. There is also a lack of clarity in what the Pac Grant of Rights entails. And if the ACC breaks up, the left behinds would likely be more attractive to USF in particular. There is plenty of reasons for all of these schools including AFA to tap the brakes before hitting the gas.

[cruzan_flame13]

Also depends on if the PAC is trying to obtain power autonomy. I'm sure they're aiming for that, but all they have are state schools thus far.

[aredd33]

https://x.com/petethamel/status/1835757 ... 96985?s=46

Looks like the crumbling of the MWC will continue. Let’s hope it falls apart enough so that UTEP and NMSU won’t bolt. The last thing CUSA needs is to lose those schools to replace with more FCS call ups.

[ATrain]

From what I've been reading, the reason why UNLV isn't in the PAC yet is because the statehouse is insisting they stay with Nevada up in Reno.

[Sly Fox]

There comes a point when the Statehouse begind to realize that they are simply hampering their greatest asset by handcuffing them to the other. No one wants Reno. I could easily see them begging to get into CUSA once the dust settles out west.

[ATrain]

I mean, I'd be cool with them joining, along with UNLV, Utah State, and New Mexico. Create a Western Division with them and Sam Houston, MAYBE call up Tarleton or Stephen F. Austin if necessary. LA Tech, Missouri State, Jax State, Kennesaw State, MTSU, WKU, us and UD can be the Eastern Division

[cruzan_flame13]

I mean, I'd be cool with them joining, along with UNLV, Utah State, and New Mexico. Create a Western Division with them and Sam Houston, MAYBE call up Tarleton or Stephen F. Austin if necessary. LA Tech, Missouri State, Jax State, Kennesaw State, MTSU, WKU, us and UD can be the Eastern Division

Sounds like a strong conference schedule and the increase of season ticket holders for years to come! Not.

[aj7]

I think the AAC and potentially Sun Belt would view Liberty differently if they lose teams. If Tulane and Memphis bolt, then the AAC is going to look at their lineup and wonder who is capable of making the playoffs. USF...maybe UTSA...? Realistically they need a team like Liberty that has proven they can be the best of the G5. Even if they don't fit as well in their profile. FIU and Georgia St fit better but won't provide much boost at all.

Getting a team in the playoffs is how you spread money around to everyone and Liberty is the sexiest option available after Tulane, Memphis, and USF IMO.

[ballcoach15]

CUSA needs to be very selective with any future additions. I still maintain the conference was watered down with the additions of Kennesaw and Delaware.

[ATrain]

ESPN confirming that AAC is targeting Air Force:

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/sto ... target-aac

[Ill flame]

Memphis and Tulane are top targets with UNLV being discussed as an option but I'm most interested in knowing who the "some others" are.

[ATrain]

Memphis and Tulane are top targets with UNLV being discussed as an option but I'm most interested in knowing who the "some others" are.

I am guessing the "some others," are probably Nevada in order to get UNLV, Air Force, and South Florida.

[Sly Fox]

After narrowly missing out when SMU bought their way into the ACC, USF is considered the most likely addition to that league if /when the departures begin. As such, they are likely holding out for the Atlantic over the Pacific.

AFA football to the AAC has been close to a foregone conclusion. The big question is where they will send their Olympics.

As for the others referenced, I suspect they all call the Lone Star State home.

[ATrain]

AFA won't send their Olympic sports to the AAC?

For those unaware, the Lone Star State FBS programs NOT in a power conference are: UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas State, Sam Houston State, and Rice.

[aredd33]

I’m having a tough time seeing how this plays out to LUs advantage.
I know nothing but the way I see it the two most likely outcomes are
1-nothing really changes for us and CUSA.
2-western CUSA schools bolt and CUSA backfills with more FCS schools

1 would obviously be better but I feel like 2 is more likely.

[cruzan_flame13]

I’m having a tough time seeing how this plays out to LUs advantage.
I know nothing but the way I see it the two most likely outcomes are
1-nothing really changes for us and CUSA.
2-western CUSA schools bolt and CUSA backfills with more FCS schools

1 would obviously be better but I feel like 2 is more likely.

LU is stuck and it will not get better. Sounds like a "Debbie downer" move, but this is realistic. The only thing we have is money, and that is not an option these other conference will take from "us." The national brand is growing, but it's not a historical brand like many other schools. Add to the fact that we are the "black sheep" to most of these schools; it would be a miracle if they even consider us. Yeah it's business and money is a part of it, yet pride is larger in most cases. CUSA only called because their pride was shot and there were no valid options at the time. At least we can continue to watch the dominoes fall and how many G5's will suffer even more long term with this major shift.

[ballcoach15]

Liberty has a better athletic program than 99% of G5s, and better than many P4s.