Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

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By Ill flame
Posts
#655394
I'm getting way ahead of myself but there are currently only three undefeated G5s besides ourselves that have an outside shot of finishing undefeated. Memphis, Fresno state and JMU, the rest are pretty big underdogs in at least one game. Memphis has to play mizzou on the road, boise state, Tulane and SMU. Fresno state still has Arizona state on the road and JMU is done with their P5 opponents but probably has the toughest conference schedule of the teams listed. Considering we are favored in every game except WKU, I think we have as good of a chance as anyone to finish with the best record in G5. I love that chadwell has proven over the years that he doesn't have a hard time motivating his players even against "lesser" opponents. Hopefully that helps us avoid some upsets.
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By jmclaughlin
Posts
#655520
Quick thoughts through week 3 ( in comparison to ‘22 and expectations):
1. Chadwell / Korn are dynamic play callers - Every game we have attacked the weakness of the opponents D. As opposed to trying to force our identity. We are getting more out of less on O.
2. Team is playing free. There seems to be a 100% buy in by the players and it shows on the sideline.
3. QB is a strength of this team again. We will go as far as KSalt is investing in the playbook.
4. Depth! We have dudes everywhere. LB and DL are still questionable but we are loaded in most other spots (in comparison to our conference). Look at our coverages on Special teams to see the wealth.
5. Adjustments. You can see each week that this staff is keying in on the right things. Building blocks to a terrific, sustained program.
6. Next week will tell us a lot. Do we have a kicker? Can our front 7 bow up? Can we consistently put drives together without the deep ball?
FIU will be the biggest challenge until WKU. IMO

Enjoy the ride!
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By tyndal23
Posts
#655531
jmclaughlin wrote: September 17th, 2023, 3:48 pm Quick thoughts through week 3 ( in comparison to ‘22 and expectations):
1. Chadwell / Korn are dynamic play callers - Every game we have attacked the weakness of the opponents D. As opposed to trying to force our identity. We are getting more out of less on O.
2. Team is playing free. There seems to be a 100% buy in by the players and it shows on the sideline.
3. QB is a strength of this team again. We will go as far as KSalt is investing in the playbook.
4. Depth! We have dudes everywhere. LB and DL are still questionable but we are loaded in most other spots (in comparison to our conference). Look at our coverages on Special teams to see the wealth.
5. Adjustments. You can see each week that this staff is keying in on the right things. Building blocks to a terrific, sustained program.
6. Next week will tell us a lot. Do we have a kicker? Can our front 7 bow up? Can we consistently put drives together without the deep ball?
FIU will be the biggest challenge until WKU. IMO

Enjoy the ride!
Need Kendy back for this one...
jmclaughlin liked this
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By Ill flame
Posts
#655638
We got 1 vote in the coaches poll this week and also moved up 12 spots this week in FPI to 60. Its now projecting us to go 11-2 (I guess it's including the conference championship game) with a 16% chance to win out. The only other undefeated teams with a higher chance to win out are Ohio state and Oklahoma. It's also giving us a 66% chance to win the conference which is the highest of any teams by a significant margin.

The next month will ultimately decide how this season will go. We should beat Sam Houston easily but Jacksonville state on the road with short rest is a recipe for an upset. MTSU isn't a good team so we should blow them out but they gave mizzou a hard time so they are capable of doing the same to us. And obviously WKU on the road will be the biggest test of our season. If we make it through that part of the season unscathed then I'll be confident through the rest of the schedule. Unfortunately with all of the G5 over P5 wins this year in the MWC and sunbelt where the other undefeated teams are it won't be enough to go 13-0 this year if we want a NY6 bowl. We are going to have to blowout nearly everyone on our schedule and prove we are in a class of our own in CUSA. I trust that chadwell will keep the team from getting complacent.
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By LUOrange
Posts
#655640
IMO, 13-0 with a decent Bowl vs a P5 is almost as good as the NY6. If we can go 14-0 in said Bowl, it would be just as good.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#655643
LUOrange wrote: September 24th, 2023, 9:13 pm IMO, 13-0 with a decent Bowl vs a P5 is almost as good as the NY6. If we can go 14-0 in said Bowl, it would be just as good.
CUSA doesnt have a bowl tie in with a P5 conference. If we miss a NY6 the next best option is the armed forces bowl vs an AAC school or the new orleans bowl against a sunbelt school. Neither are particularly exciting. Im with you though, part of me wouldn't mind going 14-0 and getting all of that (positive) media attention like coastal carolina got in 2020 without risking getting our teeth kicked in by a top P5. I just want us to do well enough this season that we're established as a preseason favorite for the G5 CFP berth next year so we get more benefit of the doubt. And yes I'm well aware I'm getting way ahead of myself.
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By phoenix
Registration Days Posts
#655670
Strength of schedule is going to hurt us in any NY6 discussions. We're going to be favored the rest of the way in, nobody we are playing has a strong schedule (possible exception of Jax State, but if we lose to an FCA transitional team it won't matter how good they are).If you're looking for a storyline, I think playing Coastal in the Myrtle Beach Bowl would really make ESPN happy. Other than that, we take what we get and win it.

It really seems to me that LU Football takes bowl games more seriously than other teams. Maybe its just me, but everyone seems to be there for the experience and the party, while Liberty is looking for the win.
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By ballcoach15
Registration Days Posts
#655672
Strength of schedule only comes into play, when "powers to be" wants to shaft a team. Look at Georgia, they are ranked #1 by everyone, but if you were to throw out the South Carolina game, Liberty's schedule is about the same as Georgia's up until now. ( UT-Martin, Ball State, UAB).
By rtb72
Posts
#655691
How much would our SOS hurt us? My gut tells me that G5s with stronger SOS and a win over a P5 would get in before us even with one loss or more than us. Do we get in with a 12-0 record and CUSA championship over a G5 conference champion with a better SOS and a P5 win? I would guess we would be ranked if we went unbeaten, but may be ranked lower than a G5 who had one loss, yet "quality" wins.
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#655696
We just need to keep our collective heads down and focus on finishing thus out. We still have enough question marks to resolve in the coming weeks that worrying about NY6 positioning seems very premature.
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By JK37
Registration Days Posts
#655697
We don’t want the players to worry about it, Sly. But we’re just lowly fanatics. We can ponder it with no concern that anything we say or do affects the team or competitive outcome sone iota.
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By LUOrange
Posts
#655699
phoenix wrote: September 26th, 2023, 12:55 pm Strength of schedule is going to hurt us in any NY6 discussions. We're going to be favored the rest of the way in, nobody we are playing has a strong schedule (possible exception of Jax State, but if we lose to an FCA transitional team it won't matter how good they are).If you're looking for a storyline, I think playing Coastal in the Myrtle Beach Bowl would really make ESPN happy. Other than that, we take what we get and win it.

It really seems to me that LU Football takes bowl games more seriously than other teams. Maybe its just me, but everyone seems to be there for the experience and the party, while Liberty is looking for the win.
Would b McCaw and Chadwell accept a game vs the Beach Chickens? And of course we play to win. You can't brag and grow the program by participation trophies alone.
By tyndal23
Posts
#655700
rtb72 wrote: September 27th, 2023, 4:29 pm How much would our SOS hurt us? My gut tells me that G5s with stronger SOS and a win over a P5 would get in before us even with one loss or more than us. Do we get in with a 12-0 record and CUSA championship over a G5 conference champion with a better SOS and a P5 win? I would guess we would be ranked if we went unbeaten, but may be ranked lower than a G5 who had one loss, yet "quality" wins.
For sure almost any 1 loss gets in over undefeated LU. Will require 2 losses for LU to get in and will still be close. It is the CFP ranking not AP and they weigh SOS much heavier.

Fresno State has 2 P5 wins already and ranked 25th need them to get 2 losses prior to Champ Game or have 1 loss then lose Champ game to a 2-3 loss matchup.

Air Force needs 2 losses ( same )

Memphis & Tulane need another loss. ( and a scenario where they play an OT game and the loser wins rematch in Champ game - legit could get a 2 loss in over LU ). Or if SMU runs table with 2 P5 losses ( TCU and OU )

Sunbelt - Marty and McGee will hype any 1 loss Team to the max

MAC - Toledo, Ohio, Miami. Miami should get the nod as a 1 loss ( loss to Miami - beat Cinci ) Toledo/Ohio we have a good shot of beating them out as a 1 loss.

The good thing - Playing on weeknights - even though committee won’t be in session - the members will see LU - and if we are winning pretty ( and continue covering the spread - Salter keeps getting hype and discussed in Heisman top 12, 500 yard per game offense, D keeps improving and climbing national stat polls etc. - then the SOS starts becoming less of a thing. CFP Members are human and they aren’t going to get much pressure on G5 SOS rankings compared to the rest they have to deal with...
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By Ill flame
Posts
#655701
We certainly need to be the only undefeated G5 to have a shot at a NY6 bowl but I think it's debatable whether a 2 loss Fresno state would get in over us despite the convincing P5 wins. At the end of the day it really depends on a ton of factors. Who they lose too, how much they lost by and how much they win by going forward as well as how much we win by. If they lose @wyoming by a FG and win out I would lean towards giving them the nod over us but it's still dependent on those other factors.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#655735
Looks like it could be the same person that was holding a LU sign during GameDay last week.

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By Ill flame
Posts
#655737
Bowling green is up by 10 against Georgia tech early in the second half. They've ran 50 offensive plays to Georgia techs 25 so I think they are starting to wear down that defense.

It required OT but buffalo beat Akron on the road. Hopefully these two results will help boost our FPI rating without us having to play a game. Even if bowling green ends up losing this should really help their ranking.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#655738
Bowling Green convincingly beat Georgia Tech 38-27. They had a 3 score lead for almost the entire second half until GT scored a garbage time touchdown with less than two minutes left in the game. Considering their schedule, they should go bowling this year. That certainly didn't hurt our SOS.
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By Racenut
Registration Days Posts
#655760
In my 65 years on this planet, there have only been a few years when I felt that the team I supported had a chance to win every time that they stepped on the field. This is one of those years.
By AATL
Posts
#655761
Ill flame wrote: October 1st, 2023, 4:16 pm I'll just leave this here.

I know SP+ is very efficiency-based and that efficiency alone (even "opponent-adjusted") is not a perfect measure of strength. However, SP+ likes Liberty more than FPI. Some notable SP+ rankings:

40. Tulane (Top G5)
42. Fresno State (Top MWC)
44. Liberty (Top CUSA)
55. JMU (Top SBC)
59. CCU ("One of these things is not like the other")
63. Marshall (Undefeated SBC)
67. Toledo (Top MAC)
89. WKU (Next highest CUSA - yikes!)
97. JSU
108. NMSU (Week 2 opponent)
114. Buffalo (Week 3 opponent)
119. BGSU (Week 1 opponent)
125. FIU (Week 4 opponent)
129. SHSU (Week 5 opponent)

Take care of business against who is on the schedule, but... egad, strength of schedule!

Connelly ranked the remaining unbeatens and slotted Liberty ahead of JMU and Marshall, noting that the offense looks scary. On the flip side, he identified LU as the worst run defense of the group despite not yet facing a top-80 offense.

No doubt the return of Kendy Charles will impact that. Hopefully it's breakout time for Hardy on the interior as well.
Baybird liked this
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