[tyndal23]

JMU has made it clear they won’t. App State the same, though less recently. ODU wants to. Marshall has said they want to, but hasn’t been able to agree yet.

Maybe you were typing your response simultaneously to mine?

Read my response to PH above.

[JK37]

Not again.

You “believe” specific sun belts will schedule based on proximity and relationship. I know otherwise.

Truth is pesky.

[tyndal23]

JMU has made it clear they won’t. App State the same, though less recently. ODU wants to. Marshall has said they want to, but hasn’t been able to agree yet.

Maybe you were typing your response simultaneously to mine?

Read my response to PH above.

And by the way JK and PH - lay out your “next steps” and timeline for us all to see...

[JK37]

No, thank you.

[tyndal23]

No, thank you.

Mr Credible with the inside info...not willing to post why JMU and AppSt who just scheduled us will no longer schedule us with same AD? What happened to the insider info report that JMU/Marshall/ODU were forcing CUSA to add LU then they all got scared when CUSA balked and feared CUSA would tank and all jumped to Sunbelt?

[jbock13]

Is he arguing with himself again?

[Purple Haize]

@tyndal23

Why limit it to only certain conferences? Can you explain why you think we need to exclude the MAC or MWC?

@tyndal23 I guess I’ll try this again

[Purple Haize]

No, thank you.

Mr Credible with the inside info...not willing to post why JMU and AppSt who just scheduled us will no longer schedule us with same AD? What happened to the insider info report that JMU/Marshall/ODU were forcing CUSA to add LU then they all got scared when CUSA balked and feared CUSA would tank and all jumped to Sunbelt?

Yeah, you might wanna cut him some slack. He really does have an inside connection. And the fact that JMU will look to screw LU at every possible turn It’s a historical fact and common knowledge. If you don’t believe that it’s a You Problem not anyone else’s.
The Inside Information wasn’t that JMU was wanting LU in CUSA with them, it was that they were going to be the Conference together. As soon as the Sun Belt came calling they were gone.
ODU has always been sympathetic towards LU and it’s FBS aspirations. Marshall hasn’t really been opposed. Appy has a student population opposed to LU and a wispy washy Administration

[thepostman]

Google is your friend Tyndal

[Ill flame]

Now that the fpi rankings are pretty much final I decided to take the average fpi ranking for each G5 conference to see if that matches up with our perception of who the best conference is. I don't think any of these numbers should suprise anyone.

AAC-73
MWC- 82.8
Sunbelt- 88.4
C-USA- 93.1
MAC- 96.5

I then looked at what the average would be based on the new conference alignments in 2023. Since fcs schools don't get a fpi ranking I left them out.

MWC- 82.8
AAC- 89
Sunbelt- 90.4
C-USA- 93
MAC- 96.5

Again this is pretty much what I expected to see. The mountain west would've been the top conference by a decent margin although no where near how dominant the AAC currently is. Overall each conference (besides the MAC) will have a few top teams and a ton of anchors preventing any one conference from being head and shoulders above the others. For that reason unless all we will need to do is win to get in. The conference perception issue will take care of itself over time.

[ballcoach15]

With 12 team playoff, 11 will be Power 5 schools. I say stick with 4, but put the "right" 4 in.

[thepostman]

Let me guess, the "right" 4 would be all southeastern schools

[ballcoach15]

Not necessarily

[JK37]

I think the job of the committee was pretty easy y the season’s end this year. Just because Michigan and Cinci got rolled, doesn’t mean someone else should’ve been selected in their place. They got the right four teams, and we now know there are two teams better than the rest. Those two are playing for the NC, so the playoff worked. Committee did their job.

[Ill flame]

It's the nature of cfb for one or two teams to be better than the rest most seasons. For that reason I don't fault anyone for saying a 4 team playoff is enough. Even if we had a 64 team playoff the final two teams would be no different. I've never really cared much for the championship game since it's almost always the same blue bloods. Selfishly I just want an expanded playoff to watch some incredible 1st round match-ups that aren't just one off bowl games. I imagine many people are in the same boat.

[Purple Haize]

I think the job of the committee was pretty easy y the season’s end this year. Just because Michigan and Cinci got rolled, doesn’t mean someone else should’ve been selected in their place. They got the right four teams, and we now know there are two teams better than the rest. Those two are playing for the NC, so the playoff worked. Committee did their job.

And who would have been up next instead of Michigan or Cincy?
Ok St was inches from the Big 12 Title and probably a spot. Not sure they would have faired better than Michigan
ND certainly wouldn’t have done as well as Cincy. They lost to Cincy and lost their Bowl game.
Pitt or Wake from the ACC?
Go down the list. The spot for the 3rd best team in the Country is wide open. Georgia and Bama have been the two best teams, by far, all year

[thepostman]

Yeah, I don't think anybody is arguing that here. Bama and Georgia are the clear-cut top 2 and I hate it so much.

[JK37]

Used to be like that in MBB. Parity came when opportunities multiplied. Theoretically, a 12-team championship invites parity.

Harder in football though.

[tyndal23]

Yes, I am arguing with myself.
No, I don’t have any credibility.
No, I have no inside sources.

My thoughts and questions are based on -

There isn’t really any hard data on how CFP Committee views G5 other than gradually giving UCF,Cinci some love after proving themselves. They didn’t give much to an undefeated MAC team ( who lost their bowl game ) in 2017 1 of the directional MI schools. But moving forward - the one spot will have to be scrutinized much harder by Committee.

Does 13-O with no weak P5 win beat out a 12-1 with a Kansas level win? No data to compare. And one could argue either way ( I am still arguing with myself onthat ).

Will committee give more credence to certain established teams if all G5 Conferences are pretty equal. I would say Boise St and Memphis are about the only two that have “brand bias” so far. App St possibly and Coastal has the inside Marty & McGee bias.

Will committee bother comparing one G5 win over another - does it matter if LU plays weak G5 non con ? Or will committee just like the hype of gaudy score wins, padded stats etc. There really just isn’t much knowledge or care about G5 in general and on Committee. Those members focus on P5 games weekly and give a quick afterthought to G5 ( until Cinci this year).

If SOS does matter and Conference Bias matters, should LU schedule 2 weaker P5 games to show clear distinction or at the very least eliminate FCS game.

JMU,Marshall,ODU,App St, ECU - if insiders know for a fact they don’t want to play us now that we are in a Conference ( but were willing to when we were Independent ). Would love to know why. First 3 joined a conference that they have to travel a ways for - do they not also want local regional games for their travel budgets and fan engagement?

Not playing MWC or MAC teams - geography and recruiting. Would rather play SDSU or a Boise St and travel further if scheduled before a bye or as an opener with an easy home game after. CA is worth it for recruiting, Boise for name brand. MAC only as last resort to complete a schedule, no upside on perception or recruiting.

If we drop UCF, WF etc in future schedules and it is for the purpose of getting a better chance at a playoff spot, I am all for it - ( some of you may find that statement shocking coming from me ). But we chose our path, so philosophy has to be all in on making a playoff spot in 2025 and every year after. There are no more “steps” to get there, we are there and have the fewest excuses not to make it of any team out there. ( in my always humble opinion of course ).

[Ill flame]

Yes, I am arguing with myself.
No, I don’t have any credibility.
No, I have no inside sources.

It's the off-season if we're not going to argue with ourselves without credibility or sources what are we gonna talk about until September?

I'm curious what our actual goal is. If it's strictly to make a cfp (assuming it expands with the top G5 getting a spot) whoever gets that G5 slot likely can't lose more than 1 game which is why a winnable schedule is preferable over a strong one. For this reason I don't anticipate seeing boise st or San Diego st making it since they usually play a difficult schedule and lose at least a game or two.

If we are prioritizing building the brand for the next round of realignment in 10ish years then scheduling 2 (preferably beatable) P5s, a tough G5 and 1 fcs opponent would be better. Only 1 G5 is likely to get chosen for the cfp but this route is more likely to get people attention if we aren't that one team. This is what worked for boise st in the WAC and what I would prefer to see.

[jbock13]

!

[LUOrange]

It'll definitely be interesting to see how our non-conference scheduling goes forward starting in 2023. However, I do believe that the G5 will get an auto-bid, hence why we're joining CUSA. Thus, I also believe that we expect to and will compete for a CUSA title on Day 1. Hence why we're CUSA w/o ODU, JMU & Marshall and also partly why we're still not in the Belt. I do wish that one day I could hear the actual story of what happened last fall with the unofficial alliance with JMU, MU, & ODU and CUSA. I've always suspected that JMU was the weakest link.

I believe that while SOS doesn't matter for many, like Coastal, it will for us. Like it or not, we're going to have to do better than the average school to get consideration due to our faith and politics. That's always been the case, even before Jr., Trump, & the hyper-political society we've become. I, also don't think that Bowls and FCS games counting towards eligibility are going away. Just because of the money involved. Although, there may be less Bowl games to spare if they're encompassed into the CFP.

So if it we're up to me we'd schedule 2 P5's in our non-conference games. I'd also keep them regional as much as possible giving our VA & NC neighbors priority. UVA & Tech should always have top billing. Hopefully, those UVA games get rescheduled ASAP. I think we'll keep playing ODU, not sure about JMU considering their arrogance and attitude towards us and the fact that they no longer need us. Although, they &/or us would be really stupid not to makes each other annual non-conference rivals. It would almost guarantee selling out the Bill and that weird looking stadium of theirs. I, also don't have any qualms playing MWC & MAC schools merely because they provide good competition (MWC) & probably FBS wins (MAC). But they do help with our alumni and recruiting bases.

[LUOrange]

Yes, I am arguing with myself.
No, I don’t have any credibility.
No, I have no inside sources.

It's the off-season if we're not going to argue with ourselves without credibility or sources what are we gonna talk about until September?

I'm curious what our actual goal is. If it's strictly to make a cfp (assuming it expands with the top G5 getting a spot) whoever gets that G5 slot likely can't lose more than 1 game which is why a winnable schedule is preferable over a strong one. For this reason I don't anticipate seeing boise st or San Diego st making it since they usually play a difficult schedule and lose at least a game or two.

If we are prioritizing building the brand for the next round of realignment in 10ish years then scheduling 2 (preferably beatable) P5s, a tough G5 and 1 fcs opponent would be better. Only 1 G5 is likely to get chosen for the cfp but this route is more likely to get people attention if we aren't that one team. This is what worked for boise st in the WAC and what I would prefer to see.

\I agree with you. Building our brand and creditability through P5 wins, CUSA titles, & Bowl wins with the CFP as a bonus is the best course, IMO. As I said before, we're not Coastal. So we won't get the same love that they get running the table playing a weaker schedule. But regularly beating P5's or being a threat to beat them (especially vs Tech & UVA) builds our credibility and puts folks in the Bill.

[Purple Haize]

Cincy played and beat ND in South Bend this year. Seems like a pretty strong statement along with going undefeated.
JMU is bound and determined not to do LU any favors. Why? Ask them. The rest of your list @tyndal23 was addressed.

[ballcoach15]

Liberty should never have to depend on JMU for anything, other than playing the Dukes in softball and maybe baseball. As for football and basketball, we should never acknowledge they exist.