[stokesjokes]

I still can't believe Fox and the AP called Arizona so quickly. It very well may stick but that seemed way too gutsy for my liking. After all the things I read about how the big networks were planning on being careful on calling races and then they do that? Super odd.

Now, I don't think Arizona will flip but it will be much closer than it was that is for sure.

I think Fox had a bad read on what the breakdown of the mail-ins were going to be in AZ. This last batch of mail-ins are skewing red because they are late arriving or same-day drop-off, but if they had assumed they would trend like other mail-ins, it would be an easy call for Biden.

[paradox]

This could drag on for some time. Both are hinting that they will declare victory as early as tomorrow. But neither guy looks like he's going to concede anytime soon. We could be in for a long ride.

Most likely, every angle will be pursued and exhausted by both parties. Enjoy it like a spectator sport.

[stokesjokes]

IF- big if- PA swings like some forecasters are saying and ends up being more like Michigan, which now has Biden at an almost 3 point lead, then it’s over. At that point Biden wouldn’t need AZ or even NV. That’s the scenario that ends things the quickest, especially since PA seems to be most actively counting their votes.

[stokesjokes]

New wrinkle- it's looking pretty likely that NV goes to Biden, maybe even callable, but that would put Fox News in the awkward position of either declaring victory for Biden or walking back their premature call on AZ.

[paradox]

Does it really matter anymore if the media calls the election? Someone will have to concede. If AZ goes to Trump, then the focus is going to be squarely on the corruption in Philly. It's about to get real ugly.

[stokesjokes]

Does any of it really matter?
"Corruption" in Philly is certainly how the Trump team wants to frame it. They've also set themselves up with another set of vague accusations in NV. Mind you, only the Trump team seems to have any knowledge or evidence of these irregularities.

[paradox]

Not saying who will prevail, but it's not a stretch. Long history of political corruption in this city. That perception is pretty strong. Win or lose, it's a problem for the Dems. Not going to be a good look for them.

[Jonathan Carone]

Does it really matter anymore if the media calls the election? Someone will have to concede. If AZ goes to Trump, then the focus is going to be squarely on the corruption in Philly. It's about to get real ugly.

Why are we assuming corruption in Philly?

[paradox]

That is the likely focus IMO. Real or imagined. Either way, big cities like Philadelphia and Chicago are poster children for this kind of behavior. That one could get pretty intense.

[Jonathan Carone]

But there still has been no evidence of it, correct?

[thepostman]

They halted the count earlier there and now there are Trump campaign officials watching so it has resumed. If there is corruption, it would be pretty hard to cover up at this point.

[paradox]

Just watching the news (CNBC) in between actual work, but yeah, that's what it looks like. The biggest one so far is the PA courts appear to have usurped their legislature's power by changing laws in mid October. It has to do with receiving ballots after Election Day. Those are the votes that GOP wants them to stop counting. GOP wants them to be put aside, and there are reports of Dems blocking oversight of ballots and hindering observers. Or something like that. I may not have all of this straight, but that's what it seems like they're saying.

Either way, looks like that one's headed for the Supreme Court. But GOP will have to prove that it impacted the election. And John Roberts does not appear to be a fan of Trump. Should be interesting.

[stokesjokes]

It's probably immaterial. The reports I saw numbered the late arriving ballots in the low hundreds anyway. Right now there are still hundreds of thousands of outstanding ballots that arrived on time to be counted.

[paradox]

Yeah, each side is gonna spin it. But did it impact the outcome? That's what it all comes down to. I'm gonna reserve judgment on that one until the smoke clears, because everything is pure spin right now. Only time will tell--is it smoke or is it fire?

[stokesjokes]

Correction: 10,000 late ballots came in Wednesday. I think the number I saw must have just been a single county. It would still have to be super close to matter, but it's not unthinkable.

[SumItUp]

Here is an interesting read about the concerns over voter irregularities. I specifically like the video detailing the Detroit 100K (100% Biden) vote drop in the middle of the night that includes a Ferrari.

Language warning

Before I became a novelist I was an accountant. In auditing you look for red flags. That’s weird bits in the data that suggest something shifty is going on. You flag those weird things so you can delve into them further. One flag doesn’t necessarily mean there’s fraud. Weird things happen. A few flags mean stupidity or dishonesty. But a giant pile of red flags means that there’s bad *x!( going on and people should be in jail.

https://monsterhunternation.com/2020/11 ... O9VEu5KE2I

[stokesjokes]

Sometimes you have to ask yourself, “is the guy from monsterhunternation.com a credible source of election data analysis?

[Jonathan Carone]

Sometimes you have to ask yourself, “is the guy from monsterhunternation.com a credible source of election data analysis?

And this is the biggest culture problem we have. Since everyone is an expert, no one is.

[SumItUp]

Did you read it?

[stokesjokes]

I did. It’s kind of a Gish Gallop of sorts, so hard to really respond to. Suffice it to say, if there were legitimate issues, they’d be reported by legitimate sources.

[TH Spangler]

Sometimes you have to ask yourself, “is the guy from monsterhunternation.com a credible source of election data analysis?

I don't know. But the things he listed are being reported tonight.

[Jonathan Carone]

Did you read it?

I did not. I try not to read opinion pieces before seeing the actual reported and verified facts.

Edit: I realize this could be read as sarcastic. That wasn’t my intent. Was just stating how I try to consume news.

[stokesjokes]

Sometimes you have to ask yourself, “is the guy from monsterhunternation.com a credible source of election data analysis?

I don't know. But the things he listed are being reported tonight.

Which parts? And by who?

[TH Spangler]

All are being discussed on shows like Lou Dobbs. You probably don't watch him.

I'm starting to think they are going to catch the demacrates doing those illegal ballot dumps, especially in PA. Or at least stop them doing enough to steal the election. Trump might get his win in PA. And the Trump campaign seems pretty confident NV is going their way.

[stokesjokes]

I don’t have cable lol