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#605135
I keep going back to the actual % of the population infected and % of death in population. In VA it’s about a 1% of the population that’s tested positive and a .00025% fatality rate. Not as scary as we are being led to believe maybe?
#605137
Purple Haize wrote: August 1st, 2020, 11:08 am I keep going back to the actual % of the population infected and % of death in population. In VA it’s about a 1% of the population that’s tested positive and a .00025% fatality rate. Not as scary as we are being led to believe maybe?
Even that figure is probably low, since so many of those who died were either elderly or had other serious medical conditions.
Just from a statistical standpoint, some of them would have died during this period anyway.
#605138
olldflame wrote: August 1st, 2020, 12:06 pm
Purple Haize wrote: August 1st, 2020, 11:08 am I keep going back to the actual % of the population infected and % of death in population. In VA it’s about a 1% of the population that’s tested positive and a .00025% fatality rate. Not as scary as we are being led to believe maybe?
Even that figure is probably low, since so many of those who died were either elderly or had other serious medical conditions.
Just from a statistical standpoint, some of them would have died during this period anyway.
Some of the positives were also double counted. But just taking the numbers at face value it recenters the hype
#605508


Despite the growing evidence that it is an effective treatment when given early, there are several states where the sale of this potentially life-saving medication for treatment of Covid-19 is actually BANNED for purely political reasons.
Last edited by olldflame on August 7th, 2020, 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#605509
I mean it’s almost like it’s Political or something. It was probably just those dumb uneducated science denying Trump supporters who financed all those positive studies
#605518
Well demacrates are holding up the next stimulus package until we put federal tax money in to bailout IL, NY, CA's public sector pension plans. Twice what most people in the private sector will ever see. Blue state politicians promised these ridiculous pentions for union support, and votes.
#606053
I can't find a single source for the 7434 number. The 2017 number checks out, but I've found 2 sources from the CDC that dispute this guy's numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm , https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

The first link shows a significant spike in expected weekly deaths, especially through the summer where the expected deaths are lower. I did the math on the 2nd link, February to March, we are averaging 8730 daily deaths, so 1,000 more per day than 2017, which equates to 182,000 more deaths, right about at our COVID numbers.

Always check your sources, people. Don't just grab facts and tweets because you like what they say.
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By SumItUp
Registration Days Posts
#606066
I checked the numbers before I posted it. The numbers were based on total deaths through July of 2020. That means January 1 to July 31. You disputed the message with "expected weekly deaths". Then you estimated the average daily deaths based on the totals from February to March.

Tell your jokes to someone else. :D
#606692
Purple Haize wrote: August 19th, 2020, 10:54 am The perception of The Rona is worse than the actual Rona. Discuss

https://www.franklintempletonnordic.com ... ience.html
Haize we have to be cautious because the Rona keeps coming and going. We want to make sure this thing is 100% gone (which will never happen ever). We don't want another black death so accept this as the new normal. Guess we know what our next boogey man is that will be pumped in our faces for a few more months possibly years.
#606713
cruzan_flame13 wrote: August 19th, 2020, 1:49 pm
Purple Haize wrote: August 19th, 2020, 10:54 am The perception of The Rona is worse than the actual Rona. Discuss

https://www.franklintempletonnordic.com ... ience.html
Haize we have to be cautious because the Rona keeps coming and going. We want to make sure this thing is 100% gone (which will never happen ever). We don't want another black death so accept this as the new normal. Guess we know what our next boogey man is that will be pumped in our faces for a few more months possibly years.
“We want to make sure this thing is 100% gone (which will never happen ever)”

And therein lies the insanity of this whole thing
#606859
all these campuses are just going to be full of cases. i imagine we see quite a spike in sept. but its likely that 95% of them will be asymptomatic.
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#606864
My son has been on campus here in the Lone Star State for just shy of two weeks. Everyone seems to be following the protocols on campus and in the classroom. But it is in social settings where they tend to drop their guards. A girl who is a friend of ours has religiously washed hands, masked & social distanced except for a 5-minute skit where she and seven other girls took off their masks as part of a sorority rush week program. All eight now have COVID-19 and are very sick today with frightened parents.

Most kids get the responsibility component of following the rules on campuses. But once they get out from under authority ...

Of course we were all much more mature back in the day.

Image
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By JCS Crew
Posts
#608393
I was over at the hotel off Odd Fellows Rd yesterday (the old Holiday Inn). This is where the students are quarantining, and there were a lot of students there! Lots outside on balconies together, hanging out together etc. Are there "healthy" students staying there like they did in years past, or are these only potentially infected kids? If so, there are a lot of potentially infected kids after only 1 week of class.
#608396
JCS Crew wrote: August 30th, 2020, 6:16 am I was over at the hotel off Odd Fellows Rd yesterday (the old Holiday Inn). This is where the students are quarantining, and there were a lot of students there! Lots outside on balconies together, hanging out together etc. Are there "healthy" students staying there like they did in years past, or are these only potentially infected kids? If so, there are a lot of potentially infected kids after only 1 week of class.

What you described would be consistent with a quarantine situation for students, and I'm not sure why you would even ask if there are uninfected students there, since that by definition would not be a quarantine.. No real reason to mask or social distance if everyone there has already tested positive. Not sure what "a lot" is, but you could have quite a few and it would still be a tiny % of the students. It's almost a certainty that the vast majority of them were infected before coming.
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#608399
I wouldn't go on the assumption of vast majority being infected prior to arrival. It doesn't take much to get a cluster of students infected. And if they are being quarantined for two weeks like most protocols suggest then they likely have around a week and a half symptom-free.

Granted it is at significantly larger school (4x), but my son is now quarantined in his room for two weeks even though he had the virus back in February because one of his suitemates (separate room with shared bathroom) tested positive. The guy who tested positive and his roommate who hasn't tested positive were both sent to one of the quarantine dorms on campus. My son and his roommate can't leave their room for 14 days. The school had well over 300 students test postive in the first week of random testing on campus in addition to those who were symptomatic. The numbers have climbed steadily ever since.

Every school is going to have significant numbers if there is enough testing. The fact that the school is using the quarantining model instead of sending infected kids home to vulnerable parents is a very good thing.
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#608407
Sly Fox wrote: August 30th, 2020, 8:57 am I wouldn't go on the assumption of vast majority being infected prior to arrival. It doesn't take much to get a cluster of students infected. And if they are being quarantined for two weeks like most protocols suggest then they likely have around a week and a half symptom-free.

Granted it is at significantly larger school (4x), but my son is now quarantined in his room for two weeks even though he had the virus back in February because one of his suitemates (separate room with shared bathroom) tested positive. The guy who tested positive and his roommate who hasn't tested positive were both sent to one of the quarantine dorms on campus. My son and his roommate can't leave their room for 14 days. The school had well over 300 students test postive in the first week of random testing on campus in addition to those who were symptomatic. The numbers have climbed steadily ever since.

Every school is going to have significant numbers if there is enough testing. The fact that the school is using the quarantining model instead of sending infected kids home to vulnerable parents is a very good thing.
With most students only arriving in the last week, I'm going to stick with my "assumption", since the incubation period for symptoms is 5-6 days and only a day or 2 less for a detectable viral load. It looks to me like the school is doing things the right way.
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