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#598822
So his idea is kinda right. As of last Wednesday, the US peak of deaths was 2607 on April 16. Current model is predicting a peak of 3130 deaths on April 16. I didn't write down what the total deaths were projected last week, just the peak, so I can't say if that's actually changed or not.
#598823
The North Carolina numbers are significantly different. Last Wednesday it said peak death day was 50 deaths on April 27. Current model projecting a peak of 30 deaths on April 15. Our peak sickness day was April 27th and we were 200 over ICU beds needed. That's changed to April 13 and 200 beds under.
#598824
Because it is a rolling peak which is pretty universally understood except by people who still think this is a hoax. It's good news and proves our approach is now working. I love the resource the U of Wash has provided. It's really great data and gives awesome insight on how things are going.
ATrain liked this
#598825
The data should change. I'm glad it is. But the idea that everything is universally looking better isn't true because the peak day nationally is now estimated to have more deaths than it was last week. It looks like total deaths is going to be less than we thought - which is incredible - but it's still going to get pretty rough over the next week to ten days.
#598826
I keep going back to the overall death total we were told (200k) and what that daily break down would have been over that time frame. Every day we don’t have 3,300 or so deaths means one of two things. First, there are going to be days approaching 6-9,000 deaths a day soon OR second, this death toll won’t be as bad as portrayed. I’ve been in camp #2 from the beginning and am happy it looks more and more like that will be the case for whatever reason.
So take heart. Last week and this week are supposed to be the heart of the storm. We haven’t seen the wholesale death tolls that were modeled. Let’s remain optimistic that the trend continues
#598828
Jonathan Carone wrote: April 6th, 2020, 11:25 am The key will be if everyone sees the stay at home working and decides to actually stay home. If they see it working and think they can start doing things again, it'll prolong things.
That’s what’s odd. Are people actually staying home? Sure they aren’t going to work but you see all the other stories. You see the crowds at Wal mart Costco etc. You hear the chiding from Birx and Fauci saying we need to shut the World down for a month etc.
Again, I’ve been and remain optimistic that these numbers we’ve been told are going to be much higher than we actually see. Especially now that we are seeing stories of how “Coronavirus Death’s” are being categorized
#598829
I think you're either misunderstanding what I'm saying @Jonathan Carone or being argumentative. The overall model is showing, as you said, lower overall numbers. That proves the stay at home orders are working. Seems to me you and I are saying the same thing but maybe I'm just misunderstanding your point.

The data is encouraging. Being encouraged is much different than stating everything is great. It's going to be a long road to recovery but if we continue to take recommendations of the medical professionals and limit how much we go out things will not be nearly as bad as originally thought which is encouraging.
#598830
Purple Haize wrote: April 6th, 2020, 11:36 am
Jonathan Carone wrote: April 6th, 2020, 11:25 am The key will be if everyone sees the stay at home working and decides to actually stay home. If they see it working and think they can start doing things again, it'll prolong things.
That’s what’s odd. Are people actually staying home? Sure they aren’t going to work but you see all the other stories. You see the crowds at Wal mart Costco etc. You hear the chiding from Birx and Fauci saying we need to shut the World down for a month etc.
Again, I’ve been and remain optimistic that these numbers we’ve been told are going to be much higher than we actually see. Especially now that we are seeing stories of how “Coronavirus Death’s” are being categorized
Around here people are going out much less. There are a lot of unconfirmed reports out there that show cell phone data is saying those in lower class and rural areas aren't changing their habits much. Those haven't been proven by any reliable source but it is out there.

Regardless, mass gatherings aren't happening in most of the country. That alone has got to be slowing things down a bit.
#598834
thepostman wrote: April 6th, 2020, 11:45 am
Purple Haize wrote: April 6th, 2020, 11:36 am
Jonathan Carone wrote: April 6th, 2020, 11:25 am The key will be if everyone sees the stay at home working and decides to actually stay home. If they see it working and think they can start doing things again, it'll prolong things.
That’s what’s odd. Are people actually staying home? Sure they aren’t going to work but you see all the other stories. You see the crowds at Wal mart Costco etc. You hear the chiding from Birx and Fauci saying we need to shut the World down for a month etc.
Again, I’ve been and remain optimistic that these numbers we’ve been told are going to be much higher than we actually see. Especially now that we are seeing stories of how “Coronavirus Death’s” are being categorized
Around here people are going out much less. There are a lot of unconfirmed reports out there that show cell phone data is saying those in lower class and rural areas aren't changing their habits much. Those haven't been proven by any reliable source but it is out there.

Regardless, mass gatherings aren't happening in most of the country. That alone has got to be slowing things down a bit.
Yeah we are saying the same thing differently. My cousin who lives in Battery Park says she’s never seen it this quiet and empty. And she lived in Manhattan during 9/11. But around here not much has changed.
Yes concerts, churches, sporting events etc have gone away and I’m sure that’s helped.
To play devils advocate there’s a growing school of thought that isolation is the wrong thing to do. But I’m not quite there with this virus. Simply because it’s got a lot of quirks about it (obviously inserted by the DNC :) )
#598841
the real number that matter are when the number of people testing positve drops as a percentage. currently that number appears to be still basically the same. i would also like to see the livability of those who are dying from this. as in. how many were terminally ill to a point where death was immanent within the next 24 months. does nothing to give us an end date but it helps us understand its real danger.
#598845
RubberMallet wrote: April 6th, 2020, 1:43 pm the real number that matter are when the number of people testing positve drops as a percentage. currently that number appears to be still basically the same. i would also like to see the livability of those who are dying from this. as in. how many were terminally ill to a point where death was immanent within the next 24 months. does nothing to give us an end date but it helps us understand its real danger.
That seems to be the sticky wicket now. If you die and have the virus you are put down as having died FROM the virus. So....have the virus yet hit by a train...cause of death...the virus. Last stage of terminal lung cancer....get the virus...cause of death..the virus.
#598846
Purple Haize wrote: April 6th, 2020, 3:02 pm
That seems to be the sticky wicket now. If you die and have the virus you are put down as having died FROM the virus. So....have the virus yet hit by a train...cause of death...the virus. Last stage of terminal lung cancer....get the virus...cause of death..the virus.
That should help the statistics for death by train or lung cancer.
Purple Haize liked this
#598857
Purple Haize wrote: April 6th, 2020, 3:02 pm
RubberMallet wrote: April 6th, 2020, 1:43 pm the real number that matter are when the number of people testing positve drops as a percentage. currently that number appears to be still basically the same. i would also like to see the livability of those who are dying from this. as in. how many were terminally ill to a point where death was immanent within the next 24 months. does nothing to give us an end date but it helps us understand its real danger.
That seems to be the sticky wicket now. If you die and have the virus you are put down as having died FROM the virus. So....have the virus yet hit by a train...cause of death...the virus. Last stage of terminal lung cancer....get the virus...cause of death..the virus.
Well, if you wander onto the tracks because you're confused as a result of encephalopathy caused from the virus, it makes sense.
#598868
TH Spangler wrote: April 6th, 2020, 5:48 am Best oped Ive read ...... in a nut shell. Coronavirus: Corporate America should stop being China’s ‘useful idiots’

https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/corporate ... ful-idiots
We all should be ashamed of enabling and benifiting from this.

https://www.globalslaveryindex.org/2018 ... ies/china/

The Global Slavery Index estimates that on any given day in 2016 there were over 3.8 million people living in conditions of modern slavery in China, a prevalence of 2.8 victims for every thousand people in the country. This estimate does not include figures on organ trafficking ................ :cry:

https://www.globalslaveryindex.org/2018 ... ies/china/
#598873
thepostman wrote: April 7th, 2020, 7:59 pm It's a wash because there are surely people dying of COVID-19 not being diagnosed or tested.
While I agree that people were probably dying of the virus before hand that doesn’t make it a wash. We just shut everything down. We’ve been told for four weeks that we are in the heart of the storm and to expect 3k deaths a day. Now, someone jumps out of a place, found to have COVID, COVID gets blamed.
#598875
Purple Haize wrote: April 7th, 2020, 8:03 pm
thepostman wrote: April 7th, 2020, 7:59 pm It's a wash because there are surely people dying of COVID-19 not being diagnosed or tested.
While I agree that people were probably dying of the virus before hand that doesn’t make it a wash. We just shut everything down. We’ve been told for four weeks that we are in the heart of the storm and to expect 3k deaths a day. Now, someone jumps out of a place, found to have COVID, COVID gets blamed.
I certainly don't conduct autopsies, but are there any documented cases of someone dying of some kind of physical violent injury and then being tested for COVID-19 postmortem in the course of the autopsy? Or is that just hyperbole?
#598876
Yacht Rock wrote: April 7th, 2020, 8:47 pm
Purple Haize wrote: April 7th, 2020, 8:03 pm
thepostman wrote: April 7th, 2020, 7:59 pm It's a wash because there are surely people dying of COVID-19 not being diagnosed or tested.
While I agree that people were probably dying of the virus before hand that doesn’t make it a wash. We just shut everything down. We’ve been told for four weeks that we are in the heart of the storm and to expect 3k deaths a day. Now, someone jumps out of a place, found to have COVID, COVID gets blamed.
I certainly don't conduct autopsies, but are there any documented cases of someone dying of some kind of physical violent injury and then being tested for COVID-19 postmortem in the course of the autopsy? Or is that just hyperbole?
It’s hyperbole to make a point.
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