Nebraska made a great deal of sense when the B1G was looking to expand but so did Missouri & Kansas.
All of the chatter I am hearing is that IF the Big XII expands it is going to be Houston & Cincy with everyone else a distant candidate. It doesn't appear that BYU has the support these days for entry. Then again, that is not a new development. They have been passed over before in the last round of expansion discussions when TCU was invited to the party instead.
If the two teams from AAC are gone to the Big XII, it will be very interesting to see how the AAC reacts. The departures would drop the league down to 9 members + Navy in football. It is possible that they could stand pat because of the rule change that allows them to have a championship with less than 12 members. But the more likely scenario would be for them to dip down the G5 food chain and grab a pair of teams. They could take two possible routes to fill those holes:
- 1. Pull up two teams from either C-USA or beyond (likely Marshall. Rice or Southern Miss)
2. Pull up one team and add UMass as a football associate to go alongside Navy
Option #1 appears to be where the AAC folks are leaning and they could possibly make a move in rapid fashion since they allegedly have been talking with possible targets already. Keep in mind that not much due diligence is necessary considering these are the same candidates they looked at it when they picked ECU, Tulane & Tulsa in the last wave of realignment.
If you are wondering if dominoes could fall far enough to impact us, this is where you will be watching things very closely. If CUSA loses one or two teams of the ones I mentioned above, they will have a very small pool of schools of possible back-fill: Texas State, JMU, Missouri State, NMSU and Liberty. If for instance say Southern Miss and Rice were gone, there would be no incentive for other Sun Belt schools with the exception of isolated Texas State to pay the entry & exit fees required to make the move. JMU appears less compelled to make the leap today than they were a year or so ago. Missouri State would be a stretch to C-USA considering the state of their football program but could be an option. NMSU would come in an instant if invited but considering the geography involved and the low upside of the school, it appears unlikely. That leaves us in a surprisingly strong position based on our budget, geography and ability to act quickly.
I know some of you are laughing right now but I will simply tell you this is not just crazy hypotheticals. I am hearing that we are legitimate candidate for CUSA from sources here in Texas and beyond. Some of these sources at large state schools seem puzzled that our name is coming up and wanted to know from me what was going on in Lynchburg that was impressing their school's administrators.
Just as a reminder, this is one of those "If you gave a Moose a Muffin" scenarios. A number of things have to occur for things to line up in our favor as identified above. But it does give us a reasonable amount of FBS hope at a time when frankly it was in short supply up intil this current situation.