[ALUmnus]

Pretty much the biggest thing going on in the world right now, but nobody's talking about it. What do you guys think? The media's all ga-ga over all these "revolutions", and that seems to be the consensus that that's what these actually are. But honestly, I don't see it. I don't think it's about freedom, and I don't think the rioters are really convinced about what their fighting for. All I see is an out-of-control mob, not a push for freedom and democracy. And in the end, democracy does not equal freedom.

All these countries are set up with a ruling class ruling under a king or dictator, ruling over an underemployed, undereducated mass. I don't know how that can end well. This ain't Philadelphia circa 1776. These people may end up with new leaders (who come from where, I don't know), but they'll still be poor, still have no jobs, and still be oppressed by their religion.

Now, if this instability spreads to Russia and China, well then I may be able to sit back and watch the carnage with a little optimism.

[From the class of 09]

Pretty much the biggest thing going on in the world right now, but nobody's talking about it. What do you guys think? The media's all ga-ga over all these "revolutions", and that seems to be the consensus that that's what these actually are. But honestly, I don't see it. I don't think it's about freedom, and I don't think the rioters are really convinced about what their fighting for. All I see is an out-of-control mob, not a push for freedom and democracy. And in the end, democracy does not equal freedom.

All these countries are set up with a ruling class ruling under a king or dictator, ruling over an underemployed, undereducated mass. I don't know how that can end well. This ain't Philadelphia circa 1776. These people may end up with new leaders (who come from where, I don't know), but they'll still be poor, still have no jobs, and still be oppressed by their religion.

Now, if this instability spreads to Russia and China, well then I may be able to sit back and watch the carnage with a little optimism.

I don't really get your response...somalia imo is an out of control mob. While Egypt has traditionally been one of the more developed and educated coutries in all of Africa. Libya on the other hand has the potential to be one of the wealthier countries (with their oil).

Why would it not be good for people to overthrough dictators who have been in power for 30+ years? Sure it may be unstable in the region, but if Russia or China had similar situations it would cause unstablility throughout the world. So I'm not sure why that would make you optimistic but the current Africa thing wouldn't?

All these countries are set up with a ruling class ruling under a king or dictator, ruling over an underemployed, undereducated mass.

This sounds exactly what England thought of America circa 1776 IMO.

[Sly Fox]

It would be a problem if the dictators were overthrown in order to exercise "democracy" by establishing Islamic states. That's where the concerns come for Americans. Mubarak may have been a dictator, but he was an ally to the U.S. in a region where allies are crucial. Who knows what we get in Egypt once the dust settles. Bahrain & Yemen were both U.S.-friendly governments that might wind up not being allies to us once all is said & done.

Libya is a completely different beast. Clearly nothing could be worse for us in comparison to Khadafy. But if the Muslims replace him with an Islamic state in line with Iran then it might not be much better.

It should be noted that while most of the protestors/revolutionaries tend to be younger & idealistic, the ideals they cling to may not be as easy to define.

And for the record, the U.S. has MAJOR economic ties to every one of these countries involved in uprisings. And there could be huge repercussions for us at the pump as a result.

[ATrain]

Sly, the repurcussions at the pump have already started, and may only get worse.

As for these uprisings, I fully support the overthrow of oppressive regimes, but I sincerely hope that we don't see the rise of states governed by Sharia Law. I think its to early in the game to see where this will ultimately lead for these Mid-Eastern/North African nations.

[Sly Fox]

Atrain - That recent little bump at the pump was purely speculative and not indicative of the huge leap that could arise if these new governments choose to abolish existing oil contracts. That could send prices up a buck or so.

[From the class of 09]

Egypt's only effects on oil is dealing with transportation because of the suez canal and a pipeline throughout the area. They are a net importer when it comes to oil consumption. We don't really have to worry about them closing those because that would just leave money on the table for them.

Libya could be a problem in the short term but after it's settled whoever takes over will be selling oil.

[phoenix]

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Yeah, I'm going old school for this one

[Sly Fox]

Egypt's only effects on oil is dealing with transportation because of the suez canal and a pipeline throughout the area. They are a net importer when it comes to oil consumption. We don't really have to worry about them closing those because that would just leave money on the table for them.

Libya could be a problem in the short term but after it's settled whoever takes over will be selling oil.

You are correct about Egypt's production capacity but not its downstream capabilities. And it should be noted that it has had what many view as sweetheart deals with Israel providing natural gas for decades. And as far as the Suez is concerned, we already have seen Iran using the unrest as a way to gain access to the canal. Where Egypt could leave money on the table is by turning their backs on the U.S. government.

As for Libya, it is not a matter of whether they will sell oil but to whom. And outside companies including several from America have invested heavily in Libyan fields. If the new Libyan government were to pull a Ukraine or Venezuela it could have a big impact on oil prices.