[ToTheLeft]

There's still a chance we get in as an at large.

Cal Poly lost tonight and will not get to 7 DI wins, and if things play out in the CAA the way they likely will, the "stength" of our FBS win and at least 7 DI wins might be enough to get us in the field of 20.

Coming into this week, the following teams had 7 DI wins already:

Appalachian State, Bethune-Cookman, Dayton, Delaware, Jacksonville, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Lehigh, Montana State, Robert Morris, Southeast Missouri State, Stephen F. Austin, William & Mary, Wofford

We'd get in over Dayton and Jacksonville. App, BCU, JSU, Lehigh, Montana State, RMU, and SFA are all AQ's and we're NOT competing against them.

That leaves:

Delaware, Liberty, Southeast Missouri State, William & Mary, Wofford

UD, WM, and Wofford all get in before us. SEMO St. is interesting, they don't have any wins better than ours, and they played, and lost to, Ball State.

At this point, we'll pencil them in anyways, so that's...

UD
WM
Wofford
SEMO St.

EWU won today and likely sealed up their AQ bid.

UD
WM
Wofford
SEMO St.
EWU

Nova is at Delaware, UNH hosts Towson, UMass travels to URI, and Richmond plays William and Mary

If all of those teams win, they'd all be in. However, I can't see the first or last happening. But I'll give the middle two their credit, however, don't be surprised if the Minutemen lose to URI.

UD
WM
Wofford
SEMO St.
EWU
UNH
UMass

Now to look at the other conferences...

Big Sky: Montana plays Montana State. Should the Griz lose, they're OUT. I am predicting a Griz loss.
Weber State plays Texas Tech, and with a loss, they are out as well. Sorry guys, not happening.
So if the Griz lose, we're clear here, no other opportunities for an at-large.

MEAC: South Carolina State has been in the playoffs as the AQ the past couple seasons. This season they're hoping for an at-large. I honestly think we have a better resume than them, but I can see them getting in over us.
Florida A&M are in the same boat, but without playoff experience. They play B-CU for the MEAC title next week, and if B-CU were to lose, they'd be in the same situation. I just don't see a MEAC team making it as an at-large.

MVFC: NDSU has 7 DI wins, as does conference champ UNI. WIU can get there, too, but they have to beat UNI. I think NDSU is likely in ahead of us. WIU would be as well, but I don't see them beating UNI.

NEC: CCSU can get to 7 DI wins, but I don't see them getting in ahead of us.

SoCon: Chatty and GA Southern both will be playing for 7 DI wins next weekend. Either one would get in ahead of us, but both are playing tough games. (@Wofford, @Furman)

Southland: I don't think Lamar counts as a DI win for McNeese, but if it does, they can reach 7 DI wins. I'm not sure how we'd compare to them, but I'd figure they'd be in ahead of us.

UD
WM
Wofford
SEMO St.
EWU
UNH
UMass
NDSU

That's 8 of the 10, so if Montana loses, Weber doesn't pull the upset, the SoCon teams lose on the road, McNeese either loses to UCA, or doesn't get to count Lamar, WIU loses, and B-CU holds off FAMU, we're competing with SCSU, CCSU, and the Pioneer league teams for 2 final spots. Of course, if UMass loses, that's another spot available, but if Nova wins, that's a spot taken away. It's all in flux. The CAA games will be almost over by the time we kickoff, so we'll know where we stand for the most part.

This is, of course, if we win. Even with 7 DI wins, a loss would have us ranked under all those teams.

[thepostman]

man you go from one thing right to the other...

interesting outlook, but 2 years ago we SHOULD HAVE made it, and didn't...since then I always looked at this year as the year we could get in since the big south has the auto bid...if we do not get the auto bid we don't make it....simple as that...the big south isn't great and if we didn't make it 2 years ago we certainly aren't going to make it this year with the at large

[ToTheLeft]

man you go from one thing right to the other...

interesting outlook, but 2 years ago we SHOULD HAVE made it, and didn't...since then I always looked at this year as the year we could get in since the big south has the auto bid...if we do not get the auto bid we don't make it....simple as that...the big south isn't great and if we didn't make it 2 years ago we certainly aren't going to make it this year with the at large

I'm not sold that we'll win, and a LOT of things need to fall into place for us. We need a ton of teams to lose their way out of the playoffs.

Just mentioning it, since Cal Poly opened up a spot that a lot of teams are going to try to get, but most are facing tough challenges.

[ToTheLeft]

I just realized there's one more spot, since I didn't pick a winner in the CAA! So there could be 3 spots if everything goes as I predicted there.

[jcmanson]

[rueful]

man you go from one thing right to the other...

ttl, i follow you one twitter, and I completely agree with one of your tweets saying "im a fan of Liberty, that doesnt mean i have to be a fan of rocco or barber"

A conversation I heard between two alumni from the 70's in athletics, one of which being in the LU hall of fame, was rather surprising to me, but they were talking about how when the school started and had no money but the athletic teams were doing pretty good, that sure most of those athletes were pastors in training, but they were wanting to win championships so that they could showcase Christ, more so saying We Love Jesus and we just beat your team. But todays teams seem driven to win Championships for the sake of winning championships no different than any other team, that LU athletics has lost its vision and has settled for a cheaper one.

Probably should have gone in another thread, but yeah.

[rueful]

also, about next week, im staying hopeful remembering the last time they came to town and we won 33-0

[jenkins]

we're just going to end up getting our hearts ripped out like always.

[LUconn]

This game was the anomaly for Coastal. They're better than CSU but could very easily lose to them. That is the direction that I'm going to be pointing my fan mojo.

[Schfourteenteen]

man you go from one thing right to the other...

ttl, i follow you one twitter

STORMTROOPER!

[Schfourteenteen]

Teams that are in even with a loss based on my nonaccurate thinking:
()= number of At Large bids

Big Sky(1)
Montana State
Eastern Washington

CAA(1)
William & Mary
Deleware

MEAC(0)
Bethune-Cookman

MVC(0)
Northern Iowa - Clinched AQ

NEC(0)
Robert Morris - Clinched AQ

Patriot(0)
Lehigh - Clinched AQ

Southern(1)
Appalachian State - Clinched AQ
Wofford

Southland(0)
Stephen F. Austin

3 At-Large bids are gone. 7 are left.

North Dakota State would receive and At-Large before us even if they lose
SEMO will probably get in over us as well(BYE)

5 At-Large bids left. We would then need 7 of these scenarios to happen

Texas Tech beats Weber State
Northern Iowa beats Western Illinois
Wofford beats Chattanooga
Montata State beats Montana
William & Mary beats Richmond
Stephen F. Austin beats Northwestern State -OR- Central Arkansas beats McNeese State
Delaware beats Villanova
Bethune Cookman beats FAMU
Furman beats Georgia Southern
Towson beats New Hampshire
Rhode Island beats Massssachusetts


Other games that would make me feel better:

North Carolina A&T beats SC State
St Francis beats CCSU
Fordham beats Colgate

[Schfourteenteen]

Of course, Charleston Southern could beat Coastal.

[ToTheLeft]

Texas Tech beats Weber State
Northern Iowa beats Western Illinois
Wofford beats Chattanooga
Montata State beats Montana
William & Mary beats Richmond
Stephen F. Austin beats Northwestern State -OR- Central Arkansas beats McNeese State
Delaware beats Villanova
Bethune Cookman beats FAMU
Furman beats Georgia Southern
Towson beats New Hampshire
Rhode Island beats Massssachusetts

Rhody beating UMass in Rhode Island is much more likely than most of those. Not sure why you have it at the bottom.

[lufan11]

we are not a playoff team

[flamesfilmguy]

Texas Tech beats Weber State Yes
Northern Iowa beats Western Illinois Likely but not certain.
Wofford beats Chattanooga Toss up. Chatty is good.
Montata State beats Montana Likely but Too close to call
William & Mary beats Richmond After last week Will and larry come out mad.
Stephen F. Austin beats Northwestern State -OR- Central Arkansas beats McNeese State both of these happen
Delaware beats Villanova VERY likely.
Bethune Cookman beats FAMU I'd put money on this game. Cook wins by 3 td's
Furman beats Georgia Southernafter southern beat App i now believe they can win this one so nope.
Towson beats New Hampshire Snowballs chance in hades.
Rhode Island beats Massssachusetts Likely but not certain.

I'd feel pretty good about maybe 5 of those. its possible but like my dad always says. anyone can beat anybody on any given Saturday. don't worry next year i'll make sure my employer makes sure CCU won't give LU any trouble after we play them.

[Schfourteenteen]

I think I just grouped the last two together by accident. No matter.

[jcmanson]

I hate myself for doing this since I’m getting my hopes up, but (with a win over SBU) we have as good if not better shot to make the playoffs this year as we did last year had we beaten SBU. I’ve been playing out all the likely scenarios and the committee will either have to take Dayton, Jacksonville, or a team with less than 7 D1 wins for us to not make it.

[LUconn]

Well, remember last time when every other team lost and we beat the pants off of Elon, only for Maine to get in. Could be a repeat.

[jcmanson]

Well, remember last time when every other team lost and we beat the pants off of Elon, only for Maine to get in. Could be a repeat.

Yeah, I realize that, but there's no Maine this year. The committee would have to set a new precedent by taking a team with less than 7 D1 wins or a non-scholly team in Dayton or Jacksonville.

[LUconn]

How crazy would that be for the Big South to send 2 schools

[Schfourteenteen]

Well, remember last time when every other team lost and we beat the pants off of Elon, only for Maine to get in. Could be a repeat.

Yeah, I realize that, but there's no Maine this year. The committee would have to set a new precedent by taking a team with less than 7 D1 wins or a non-scholly team in Dayton or Jacksonville.

Like a 6-5 James Madison. Hello perfect exemption.

[jcmanson]

JMU at 6-5 does scare me. Richmond at 6-5 does not.

JMU would have a win over Va Tech, William & Mary, and a great GPI.

[LUconn]

Not to mention if we're being compared side by side, they do have a little old head to head win over us.

[olldflame]

Interesting spin from the ADs on our loss.

http://www.libertyflames.com/index.cfm? ... ewsID=6170

Apparantly 7 other teams ranked in the top 25 lost Saturday. Personally, it doesn't make me feel any better.

[olldflame]

Not to mention if we're being compared side by side, they do have a little old head to head win over us.

Even with the close head to head win, it would be a huge and potentially risky precedent to pick a team that doesn't meet the established 7 win criteria when there are one or more teams that do.