[coastalfan1]

I try to be original!

[rueful]

However we are peaking now, not at the end of the season... Like last year... yeah I know Presby kept us out, however if the Elon game was two weeks earlier...when it was the mad dash for the playoffs then maybe... but i hate "what ifs"

agreed, we seem to be garnering a little more respect every week this year. Hopefully Laffy and JMU keep winning out

[rueful]

I would love it if EWU loses these next two games. Those on AGS may wonder who the idiot is talking about EWU, but its me. Probably sound like an idiot on there, but I know a bit about EWU, ive been to several of their games, my sister and her husband are alumni of there and he still follows them very adamantly, so im not just blowing smoke there.

[Sivart]

agreed, we seem to be garnering a little more respect every week this year. Hopefully Laffy and JMU keep winning out

Well it is very possible for Laffy and JMU to win out... I'm not sure if Delaware looked bad or JMU has finally stepped it up... The key is for Laffy to win out! If their only loss comes from a team not in the playoffs, and they get it, will leave me scratching my head, much like this>

[phoenix]

After the JMU loss, I told a couple of band members not to worry about having to stick around for the playoffs I'm still not counting on it, but I really hope I was wrong.

[rueful]

I dont understand how some of the Big Sky teams are still in consideration. NAU lost to a pretty bad Sac st. team at home, EWU lost to Weber st. at home, and weber st. has 4 losses. Granted their 4 losses are to good teams with the exception of a loss at home to Montana st. .

I just think to many west coast teams get too much credit because no one looks into things and its rare they play east coast teams. I dont think EWU, Montana St. or Weber St. should get in ahead of us if we win out. Weber St. is much better than EWU, but again, they have 4 losses, that should put them out of consideration.

[dbackjon]

I dont understand how some of the Big Sky teams are still in consideration. NAU lost to a pretty bad Sac st. team at home, EWU lost to Weber st. at home, and weber st. has 4 losses. Granted their 4 losses are to good teams with the exception of a loss at home to Montana st. .

I just think to many west coast teams get too much credit because no one looks into things and its rare they play east coast teams. I dont think EWU, Montana St. or Weber St. should get in ahead of us if we win out. Weber St. is much better than EWU, but again, they have 4 losses, that should put them out of consideration.

Correction - NAU lost AT Sac State by 3. Sagarin rates Sac State # 43 in FCS (Liberty is #24).
Sagarin rates Montana State AHEAD of Libery, BTW, so that must mean Liberty is not a good team

And you are smoking something that is not allowed at Liberty if you think Western teams get too much credit. Quite the opposite.

[rueful]

I dont understand how some of the Big Sky teams are still in consideration. NAU lost to a pretty bad Sac st. team at home, EWU lost to Weber st. at home, and weber st. has 4 losses. Granted their 4 losses are to good teams with the exception of a loss at home to Montana st. .

I just think to many west coast teams get too much credit because no one looks into things and its rare they play east coast teams. I dont think EWU, Montana St. or Weber St. should get in ahead of us if we win out. Weber St. is much better than EWU, but again, they have 4 losses, that should put them out of consideration.

Correction - NAU lost AT Sac State by 3. Sagarin rates Sac State # 43 in FCS (Liberty is #24).
Sagarin rates Montana State AHEAD of Libery, BTW, so that must mean Liberty is not a good team

And you are smoking something that is not allowed at Liberty if you think Western teams get too much credit. Quite the opposite.

I think there are some great teams on the west, but I also feel like most of the second and third tier teams on the west would be alot lower in the ranks on the east, but because its rare that east and west play eachother, its hard to see. Am I trying to say that all west coast teams are overrated? No. Do I think some get too much credit? Yes

[jcmanson]

Here’s my projections:
Auto bids:
Richmond – CAA
Montana – Big Sky
Elon – SOCon
South Dakota St – MVFC
SF Austin – Southland
S Car St – MEAC
Holy Cross – Patriot
Eastern Illinois – OVC

At large:
William & Mary
Villanova
New Hampshire
Southern Illinois
App State
Northern Iowa

That leaves 2 spots. I think it will come down to the following teams:
7-4 Weber St
7-4 Eastern Washington
9-2 Liberty
9-2 Florida A&M
10-1 Central Connecticut St
9-2 Colgate
9-2 Lafayette
7-4 McNeese St

That’s 8 teams for 2 spots. Under this prediction I have Laffy beating Colgate and then losing to Holy Cross. If that happens we get in before Laffy or Colgate. I don’t see CCSU making it ahead of us. So, that makes 5 teams for 2 spots.

7-4 Weber St – 2 FBS losses
7-4 Eastern Washington
9-2 Liberty – beat Laffy
9-2 Florida A&M – no good wins
7-4 McNeese St – beat App St

That’s a tough call.

[ToTheLeft]

Manson,

The good news about your predictions is that, if EWU is 7-4, they're out of the running. That would actually be 6-4, since a win over Western Oregon is not a DI win.

[ToTheLeft]

I think if SFA holds it down and wins the SLC, and McNeese loses again, combined with an App loss to Elon to knock down McNeese's SOS, and UNI, EWU and Montana State all lose a game, we'll have a very solid chance, and I would almost say we'd be a lock at that point, since that would open up 3 at-larges, and they could take us, and a combo of FAMU or CCSU or Weber or a second PL team.

[jcmanson]

Key games this weekend:
Northern Arizona @ Ole Miss
NAU has to lose here

Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky
EKU needs to lose here

Colgate @ Laffayete
This game is huge for us. Not only would a Laffy win help us, but Colgate losing probably keeps them out of the at-large discussions.

Sam Houston St @ McNeese St
Would help if McNeese St lost

Texas State @ Central Arkansas
We want Cent Ark to win

YSU @ Northern Iowa
UNI losing will help us

Chattanooga @ App St
Another loss for App before they play Elon could help eliminate them, opening up another spot

[ToTheLeft]

Agreed on all, except EKU is pretty much done. The loss to AP pretty much did them in, that's a Stupid Hose style loss.

[Keenan]

Key games this weekend:
Chattanooga @ App St
Another loss for App before they play Elon could help eliminate them, opening up another spot

Not a chance in H-E- - that's going to happen

[Chris Lang]

Manson ... McNeese is a lot more likely to win out than lose two of those games. They'll be substantial favorites in all three -- vs. Sam Houston, at Texas State, vs. Central Arkansas.

The test for the committee will be if Weber goes 7-4. The signature win would be at an Eastern Washington team that would probably be 7-4. Beating a .500 Cal Poly team at home isn't all that impressive. They wouldn't have any horrible losses, but the committee has been loath to take 7-4 teams, even if they schedule two FBS teams.

If you would look at the two teams, it would be:

Weber -- 7-2 vs. FCS with signature win at Eastern Washington, one suspect loss (but not bad) vs. Montana State at home.
Liberty -- 8-1 vs. FCS with signature win at Lafayette, one suspect loss (but not bad) vs. James Madison at home.

[jcmanson]

Manson ... McNeese is a lot more likely to win out than lose two of those games. They'll be substantial favorites in all three -- vs. Sam Houston, at Texas State, vs. Central Arkansas.

Thanks, I thought they had 3 losses already. I don't see them finishing less than 8-3, and they'll be in.

[jcmanson]

I KNOW we'll make the playoffs now...

Last team to make the field in 2008:
Maine
8 Division I wins
Only losses to CAA teams and an FBS
9/27/08 L at home vs. JMU, 10-24

Last team to make the field in 2009:
Liberty
8 Division I wins
Only losses to CAA teams and an FBS
9/26/09 L at home vs. JMU, 10-24

[ToTheLeft]

Hahahahahaha. That's epic.

[flamesfilmguy]

Thats just awesome.

[Rooster Cogburn]

WOW! great stuff numbers man manson

[JMUDukes]

Playing devil's advocate, a post by a JMU fan over at the Zone.

Wow, some Liberty fans are really expecting this. Let me help add a dose of reality.

The selection committee doesn't consider their ranking in polls or overall record. They really are interested in finding the best available teams.

Liberty fans are very high on their team, probably because they see them week to week just destroying their competition. However, objective obeservers will look at the schedule and see that it's largely come against the Sisters of the Poor. Liberty's going to need to win a few more before they're among the best.

Consider their wins:

- D-II West Virginia Weslyean, who obviously has no D-I wins.
- NCCentral and Presbyterian, neither of whom have any D-I wins of their own.
- Charleston Southern, which has only two wins against winless Savannah St and 2-win VMI.

With that, Liberty has four wins that pretty much 95% of the teams in FCS would also have gotten.

- Liberty beat Coastal Carolina. Their three D-I wins came against NEC Monmouth, BSC VMI and MEAC NC A&T.

Ok, that's a hair tougher. Coastal has wins against teams from auto-bid conferences - too bad they won't win them. Coastal isn't good and that's just not impressive

- Lafayette's only loss is to Liberty. They have beaten all comers from the Patriot and Ivy and sit at 7-1

That's a good win, on the road, no less. However, the strength of the Ivy and Patriot remains debatable.

So, what's coming up that helps their case?

- VMI has a win against the afore-mentioned Presbyterian and 2-6 Robert Morris of the NEC

Put that in the Coastal Category above. VMI has D-I wins, but sorry, not impressive

- Gardner-Webb - 3 D-I wins against SoCon WCU, VMI and Charleston Southern. They are undefeated in the Big South.

At last! an opponent with a win against a team from an at-large conference, albeit the last place team in that conference. I've already covered VMI and Charleston Southern. Liberty will win this game...as would most of FCS

- Stony Brook - 5 D-I wins against IVY Brown, Presbyterian, VMI, Coastal Carolina, Gardner-Webb. They are undefeated in the Big South.

This team has the same wins we've already discussed, with the addition of Brown (Who beat CAA URI, btw). Relative to the rest of Liberty's schedule, this is a tough one. However, does a win here really impress anyone? Stony Brook has also lost to the Ivy and Patriot.


Lafayette's all Liberty has going for it and even that's precarious...all those other wins are easy...sorry, but they are. The Big South is weak. I realize that as a JMU fan, I'm inviting calls of elitism...trying to keep the BSC and Liberty down, but I'm really trying to provide an objective, fact-based anaylsis.

I see how Liberty fans will be so upset if a team from a bigger conference gets in with a 7-4 record. Well, I would bet that there are going to be 7-4 teams with one or two wins much better than Lafayette.

If someone can articulate why Liberty will get in that doesn't involve quoting Rocco or pointing to a 9-2 record, I'd like to hear it. If you can't, take a seat over there by the fans from San Diego and Albany.

[Sly Fox]

I love it how everybody wants to point out the weakness of our chances to us. Uh, I would think we would be more familiar with our position than others. Yeah, we know we are a long shot. Yeah, we are suddenly big JMU fans for a couple more weeks.

[JMUDukes]

Yeah, we are suddenly big JMU fans for a couple more weeks.

Shouldn't you have been all along?

[Sly Fox]

For those of us old enough to remember when we had a bit of a rivalry in the '80s, I admit it is tough for me to pull for the Dukes.

[JMUDukes]

For those of us old enough to remember when we had a bit of a rivalry in the '80s, I admit it is tough for me to pull for the Dukes.

I just hope last year wasn't the last time we visit the Vines Center...that could be a very good series if scheduled.