[blwall1416]

Why the Devils have sunk down stretch since 2001

In the seven seasons since Duke's last national title (2001), college basketball's most publicized program has almost annually seen its weaknesses exposed at the worst possible time: The end.

In reviewing important data from those seasons, one discovers an undeniable trend. Mike Krzyzewski's teams are not nearly as talented as they once were, yet the combination of a deceptively unchallenging schedule and accompanying rise up the polls leads to the same, lofty expectations as always.

These Blue Devils, however, rarely achieve them.

Dig a little deeper, however, and take a closer look at the numbers. Since 2001, the Blue Devils have dominated all right -- in December and January.

In each of the past six seasons (2002-07), AP voters have dubbed Duke a top-five team late into the regular season, including a No. 1 ranking four of the six years. Only once, however, has Duke validated those lofty opinions come March, reaching one Final Four (2004) while failing to advance beyond the Sweet 16 in the others.

This despite entering the tournament as a No. 1 seed in four of the six years.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... index.html

There are a lot of stats & figures in this Sports Illustrated article that could lead to a lot of discussion.

I would like a logical discussion for this thread. No "dook sucks" or "K blows" or "Huckleberry Roy", etc....

[BrysOn_G]

i would agree that they are not as talented as a team as they have been, but i would not agree with anyone that says "they don't have as much talent." they have talent. that's what confuses me. honestly, there is no explanation for this new era of duke basketball. all i can think to say is just that k is losing it. maybe the game is changing, and k is not adapting to those changes. since 2001, teams that can flat out play ball, have been held back. hold the ball with almost an entire half (thank you dean smith... which by the way, that game plan is genius, just not with 15 mins. left in the game), NEVER dump down low if it's a strong year for perimeter player, etc.

don't get me wrong, i LOVE coach k. i LOVE duke. as a duke fan i hate who i should and say what you'd expect, BUT coach k is the coach... just like he said in his most recent press conference following the miami loss:

"I take the blame."

he should.

[blwall1416]

That's one thing I've never understood about K. He says he adapts his offense to his personnel. And if you're a wing or a guard, he does. However, he seems to leave the bigs to set screens & shag rebounds. Shelden Williams is one of the best examples of this. He was a beast on the defensive side of the ball, but he seemed to be stuck getting a rebound & kicking it back out to JJ or some other guard. IMO, if K involved his bigs more, they would not keep missing out on bigs in the recruiting trail. It seems like the bigs are starting to realize 1) K's game plan & 2) Wojo is a terrible big man coach.

[RagingTireFire]

Disclaimer: I am a Duke fan. There, that's out of the way.

Reason #1:
Over that same stretch of time, Duke has been dramatically overrated because they're Duke. That's just the truth. They're still Duke but they haven't had the talent level there to justify their near-celestial early season rankings in several years.

Reason #2:
No reliable big man. The last good big man Duke has had was Sheldon Williams and that's not saying much. As a result, Duke has been very much a perimeter team and perimeter teams don't go deep into the post-season.

Reason #3:
Luol Deng. That one stung. After Deng idiotically bailed for the NBA after one year, Coach K stopped recruiting kids that were just looking for a stepping stone to the NBA. Unfortunately, that means that you're leaving a ton of talent on the table for someone else to pick up and other teams have been doing just that.

Reason #4:
ACC talent dilution via Big East merger. I'm not saying that the overall talent level in the ACC has gone down. In fact, I think the reverse is true. However, adding VT, BC and Miami has done more good for those basketball programs than those programs have done for the ACC as a whole. Factor in the added road games and more options for kids that possess ACC talent and it's going to hurt somebody. Duke hasn't been the only hurt in this area. Wake Forest's program has suffered. NC State and Maryland aren't even close to the programs they were pre-merger.

[fan00]

I think that part of being a good coach is coaching your team to "peak" at the right time. Clearly, with the dominance in December and January and slow decline thereafter, Coach K has some adjustments to make. I have been a Duke fan since Christian Laetner and have no answer for the recent years, and while I do think Coach K is a brilliantly minded coach, he was right to take the blame for the most recent loss.

[blwall1416]

I think that part of being a good coach is coaching your team to "peak" at the right time.

Dean Smith's teams seemed to do this all the time. My dad would tell me how this happened before I was born.

Now, of course that didn't mean UNC would go undefeated in Feb. & March....it just means that traditionally, UNC plays it's best basketball the closer the tournament gets. They just seem to hit their stride. Sometimes though, they hit a team that cruising a little better (George Mason, Georgetown, etc...)

Like the stats in the article, the Devils' winning percentage in Feb. & March is a far decline from their early season percentage. I think, it part, it has to do with fatigue. Even this year, notice now that the starters are playing more minutes, & K's bench is nearly as deep. Unless he changes something, I see the same thing happening this year.

[blwall1416]

I have heard this:

"Another problem that Duke has is K's emphasis on the emotional side of the game. They pour so much effort into trying to win every game all year long, that they run out of gas."

I have often thought of this as a problem. I know I've heard players & coaches, both pro & college, say it's better in the long run, to play with less emotion. Too much emotion creates a roller coaster & eventually affects your body & mind.

[BrysOn_G]

2) Wojo is a terrible big man coach.

i actually think nate james has also been working with the big men recently. lance thomas as shown significant improvement (which he is able to display once a game, every three games, these days).

Reason #3:
Luol Deng. That one stung. After Deng idiotically bailed for the NBA after one year, Coach K stopped recruiting kids that were just looking for a stepping stone to the NBA. Unfortunately, that means that you're leaving a ton of talent on the table for someone else to pick up and other teams have been doing just that.

amen. recruiting a "scheyer" has proven not as successful when there are "ty lawsons" and "other very talented players" going to other schools every year, even if just for one year.

[blwall1416]

lance thomas as shown significant improvement (which he is able to display once a game, every three games, these days).

Thomas is a player that I think could develop into a very solid player....just perhaps not in the system he is in. I know in UNC's freelance game, they want a big man to touch the basketball by every third pass.

Shelden hated playing with JJ the last two years. He was ticked about his role in the offense, but he wanted to try & win a national title, so he felt this was the best way to do it.

I can't help but think that Thomas might have some of the same thoughts that Williams had. Thomas might not "hate" his role, but when it's all done, I think he'll look back & think what might have been. That is, of course, unless K changes his strategy.

[RagingTireFire]

Shelden hated playing with JJ the last two years. He was ticked about his role in the offense, but he wanted to try & win a national title, so he felt this was the best way to do it.

JJ wasn't going to get it done either but Shelden just wasn't good enough for the offense to run through him.

[blwall1416]

JJ wasn't going to get it done either but Shelden just wasn't good enough for the offense to run through him.

Right. I'm not trying to say Shelden would have been an ACC legend, but that type of attitude towards JJ affected most of the team. Shelden eventually said, perhaps a little tongue in cheek, that he wished JJ had come to Duke. McRoberts said the only reason he tolerated JJ was because they were roommates, IIRC.

They felt that K picks his "son" every year & allows that player to do things, or not do things, more so than them...creating a tension. I cant' help but think that towards the end of the season each year, this plays on their psyche...but, I could be wrong.

[LUconn]

Reason #3:
Luol Deng. That one stung. After Deng idiotically bailed for the NBA after one year, Coach K stopped recruiting kids that were just looking for a stepping stone to the NBA. Unfortunately, that means that you're leaving a ton of talent on the table for someone else to pick up and other teams have been doing just that.

that did hurt duke. But seems like a pretty good decision by Deng. He makes a lot of money, and who knows how his development would have gone if he had stayed (see Shavlik Randolph). He's considered a very good NBA player right now.

Reason #4:
ACC talent dilution via Big East merger. I'm not saying that the overall talent level in the ACC has gone down. In fact, I think the reverse is true. However, adding VT, BC and Miami has done more good for those basketball programs than those programs have done for the ACC as a whole.

2 bottom feeders in the BE and 1 getting better come over and are immediately middle of the pack ACC teams taking down the upper tier from time to time. I guess the conference affiliation gave them superpowers.

[JDUB]

i think the idea that K picks a "son" is absolutely right. not only that though, he also picks a couple that he doesn't like. last year it was pocius. now he's injured, and its become king. both of these kids are very talented, but K won't let them play. granted king plays more than pocius ever has, but still. if you watch, when king makes 1 mistake he's out and never goes back in. K will ruin that kid.

paulus is K's "son" this year. he does some stupid stuff without getting anything said.

why is wojo a big man coach? does anyone see a problem with that besides me? i say they bring in giminski (sp?) and make wojo just sit with collins and look important

[flamesbball84]

i think the idea that K picks a "son" is absolutely right. not only that though, he also picks a couple that he doesn't like. last year it was pocius. now he's injured, and its become king. both of these kids are very talented, but K won't let them play. granted king plays more than pocius ever has, but still. if you watch, when king makes 1 mistake he's out and never goes back in. K will ruin that kid.

paulus is K's "son" this year. he does some stupid stuff without getting anything said.

why is wojo a big man coach? does anyone see a problem with that besides me? i say they bring in giminski (sp?) and make wojo just sit with collins and look important

what's wrong with a non big man being a big man coach. pete newell isn't exactly a big man!

[blwall1416]

paulus is K's "son" this year. he does some stupid stuff without getting anything said.

Last year, they had co-captains....Paulus was one of them. This year, just one...Nelson. Why? To me, I think it set up because it would be easier to replace Paulus in the line up if he weren't a captain, with Smith. I think K made that move before the season started just in case Paulus had another horrible year. He's been streaky this year, from what I've seen.

But think about it....Paulus will probably NEED to be a captain next year, so how bad would it look if K sat him on the bench this season for extended periods of time, & then next year said he's the leader of the team?

[JDUB]

paulus was really bad last year, and has definitly improved. i'm just saying that some people he jumps all over on the sidelines, but paulus can do something really dumb and k won't say anything.

and wojo isn't a good coach for big men. he has no experience, and obviously hasn't done anything with them considering that is one of duke's biggest problems. i think he should be moved to a different coaching position and someone good should be brought in for big man coach. the problem is that would mess up k's gameplan of live by the 3, die by the 3 and if its close hold the ball and make a game that shouldn't be close way to close.

needless to say i'm a little ticked at K right now

[kel varson]

Sounds to me like what everyone is saying is that Duke has been overrated recently and so has the Coaching ability of Coach K. We can thank Dicky V for that.

I think what RTF said really makes sense. A lot of talent is lacking because he is recruiting the 4 year player. I don't know other coaches or big time programs that have done this. Its a nice experiment. Time will tell if it works.

[JDUB]

i think a lot of talent is lacking b/c he can't recruit a good big man. there are several reasons for this, mainly that the offense is so centered on the 3 that no decent big man would want to come just to be a rebounding tool

[olldflame]

For the K haters..........guys like Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James speak very highly of him since he coached them in the olympic qualifying tourney. That team played better defense than any US national squad since the Dream Team, although the leadership of Bryant and Kidd had a lot to do with that as well.