[LUDad]

Nolan predicts that we will lose to Duke and 2 of 3 to FGSU leaving him us with a final RPI of 57. If that senerio happened I would agree that we would not win the conference title nor would we get an at large bid.

On the other hand, Boyd's World predicts that we will end up with a 45 or better RPI IF we beat Duke and take 2 of 3 from FGSU. Such a result also mean that we win the regular season title. Since at large selection is app. 75 % predicated on APR and performance in league play, I would think we would be almost a lock for an at large bid. Any doubters?

[flamesfilmguy]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I don't see any foreseeable way for the flames to get an at large bid. with a conference RPI of 14 and an SOS over 125 and no major RPI bumps left on the schedule they almost certainly have to win the conference tournament to get in. 28 of their games were played against competition with an RPI over 150 and only 6 games(3-3) in the top 50 is not going to look good to a committee. I just don't see it happening. with Stetson and UNF having down year by their standards the Asun has also been down as a whole. There's just not enough there to merit an at large even if they win out their regular season games.

[LUDad]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I don't see any foreseeable way for the flames to get an at large bid. with a conference RPI of 14 and an SOS over 125 and no major RPI bumps left on the schedule they almost certainly have to win the conference tournament to get in. 28 of their games were played against competition with an RPI over 150 and only 6 games(3-3) in the top 50 is not going to look good to a committee. I just don't see it happening. with Stetson and UNF having down year by their standards the Asun has also been down as a whole. There's just not enough there to merit an at large even if they win out their regular season games.

Duly noted. I think history is on my side though regarding mid majors. LU would get bid over most p5's with same rpi but who finished around 500 in conference.

[flamesfilmguy]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I don't see any foreseeable way for the flames to get an at large bid. with a conference RPI of 14 and an SOS over 125 and no major RPI bumps left on the schedule they almost certainly have to win the conference tournament to get in. 28 of their games were played against competition with an RPI over 150 and only 6 games(3-3) in the top 50 is not going to look good to a committee. I just don't see it happening. with Stetson and UNF having down year by their standards the Asun has also been down as a whole. There's just not enough there to merit an at large even if they win out their regular season games.

Duly noted. I think history is on my side though regarding mid majors. LU would get bid over most p5's with same rpi but who finished around 500 in conference.

Most years I would agree with you on that point. but with the ACC,SEC and Big 12 and pac 12 as convoluted as they are at the top with anywhere from 8-6 at larges per conference and the West coast resurgence I would see LU getting left off in favor of a UCSB or BYU who loses their conference tourney or a Southland team. heck the freaking Missouri valley might have 4 post season teams this year.

[LUDad]

We do know one thing. Duke who currently resides at 45 rpi and a winning conference record would have a hard time getting the nod over LU IF they lose for the 2nd time to LU.

[flamesfilmguy]

We do know one thing. Duke who currently resides at 45 rpi and a winning conference record would have a hard time getting the nod over LU IF they lose for the 2nd time to LU.

Not necessarily. Duke hosts Miami this weekend at a 13 RPI. if they go 2-1(unlikely since I just watched them live this past weekend. spoiler alert we torched them friday and Sat.) they have the opportunity to boost their RPI even with a loss today. plus they will have played 21 games in Quadrant 1 of the RPI. to LU's 6. I'm really not trying to be a debbie downer but If duke manages to win the miami series and stay over .500 in the ACC after the tourney. they are in over LU.

[flamesfilmguy]

Same goes for Wake. While the mid week games are great for RPI boosts. they aren't much value past that for LU. Duke played a top 25 SOS because of who they've played in conference. Liberty doesn't have that luxury. Which is why conferences like the Asun typically only get one bid. Unless you get a stetson or FGCU with a really good year. and by that I mean like a 40 win season. Then you just have to hope to win the conference tourney.

[LUDad]

Interesting conversation. Actually, I think I may go a bit against the grain concerning mid-week games. While a mid major may not face the p5 week-end starters, the p5's are also facing MID MAJOR mid-week starters. Though some mid majors may have one or two studs or perhaps even three stud pitchers, there SHOULD be a huge drop-off in talent in weekday games between p5 & mid-major in pitching (also in hitting & fielding). So if a mid major beats a p5 twice in a year, notice should be given.

[flamesfilmguy]

Interesting conversation. Actually, I think I may go a bit against the grain concerning mid-week games. While a mid major may not face the p5 week-end starters, the p5's are also facing MID MAJOR mid-week starters. Though some mid majors may have one or two studs or perhaps even three stud pitchers, there SHOULD be a huge drop-off in talent in weekday games between p5 & mid-major in pitching (also in hitting & fielding). So if a mid major beats a p5 twice in a year, notice should be given.

No doubt. And I think if Liberty doesn't lose conference games to the likes of NJIT, UNA and (this year rpi number 201) stetson. then those mid weeks would most certainly carry more weight. you just can't lose those RPI killing games. even though it is so hard to sweep in conference. UCSB is a perfect case study for this. They have 40 wins and only 7 losses. They are pushing for a national seed but I don't think they'll get there. They lost a series to UC Riverside and pretty much everyone felt that they needed to run the table in conference for them to be considered a national seed resume.

[ballcoach15]

Just win conference tournament and leave it out of hands of the Committee. Committees favor P5 teams 99% of the time.

[LUDad]

Just win conference tournament and leave it out of hands of the Committee. Committees favor P5 teams 99% of the time.

Easier said than done. Not in BS anymore. However, after watching the young guys pitching most of the game against Duke, I am feeling better about our chances. Certainly have the arms to go the long haul. Just need hitting to show up, which it has recently.

[olldflame]

Just win conference tournament and leave it out of hands of the Committee. Committees favor P5 teams 99% of the time.

Amazing. In 2 sentences you confirm your status as Admiral Obvious and spout next-level hyperbole.

The whole reason this thread exists is to speculate what our chances are if we DON'T win the tournament. The fact that we don't need to worry about any of this if we do goes without saying. But of course you said it anyway. Does the committe tend to favor P5 teams for at large berths? Yes, but not to anywhere near the extent you are saying. The ASUN, and even the BSC, have a history of getting 2, and on occasion even 3 bids. If we have the resume, we can get in.

[thepostman]

I really think that we had to sweep this last series to even have a shot at an at large. It has little to do with the P5 bias, but our body of work is borderline at best.

[olldflame]

I really think that we had to sweep this last series to even have a shot at an at large. It has little to do with the P5 bias, but our body of work is borderline at best.

I tend to agree with you there. If we win the regular season today, make a tourney run to the finals, and some things go our way with other bubble teams we might still squeeze in there. Our last at-large team in 2014 finished with a 41-18 record (but 2 of the losses were in the tournament) Right now we are 37-17. That team had a signature win over 20th ranked Clemson. This year we beat number 8 (at the time) Carolina.

[thepostman]

That is a valid point as well. There is always a chance we squeeze in if we have a strong tourney showing but at this stage the chance seems slim

[LUDad]

We are at 48 rpi now. If we win Jacksonville game we will have 40 wins, one pitch from winning regular season, and will be in Championship game. I think that may be enough.

[ballcoach15]

Should be, but it's impossible to project how committee will feel.

[ballah09]

FWIW

Aaron Fitt
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Verified account

@aaronfitt
4h4 hours ago
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I think @libertybaseball has put itself in a pretty good spot for an at-large bid if it can’t win 2 straight games vs Stetson in the A-Sun championship round. Up to No. 45 in the RPI, 40 wins overall… even though Flames didn’t win the regular-season title, I like their chances.

[jinxy]

Thats the only thing the losers bracket helps is a bunch more wins including a road win over stetson and jacksonville still has decent rpi

Id feel better by winning obviously but we should be in play for a 3 seed with a win tom.

[Class of 20Something]

FWIW

Aaron Fitt
‏
Verified account

@aaronfitt
4h4 hours ago
More
I think @libertybaseball has put itself in a pretty good spot for an at-large bid if it can’t win 2 straight games vs Stetson in the A-Sun championship round. Up to No. 45 in the RPI, 40 wins overall… even though Flames didn’t win the regular-season title, I like their chances.

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Jonathan Carone]

D1 has us in the first four out currently.

[LU Grad 11]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I don't see any foreseeable way for the flames to get an at large bid. with a conference RPI of 14 and an SOS over 125 and no major RPI bumps left on the schedule they almost certainly have to win the conference tournament to get in. 28 of their games were played against competition with an RPI over 150 and only 6 games(3-3) in the top 50 is not going to look good to a committee. I just don't see it happening. with Stetson and UNF having down year by their standards the Asun has also been down as a whole. There's just not enough there to merit an at large even if they win out their regular season games.

Love to be the bearer of good news; I do see a way for us to get an at large bid. Tournament has helped our SOS (117) and RPI (42), playing the two other best RPI teams in the conference twice. Conference RPI is up to 13. BYU is 0-2 in Quad 1 games and has a worse SOS. How would they have a better at large case than us, if we were to lose today? And by "we", I'm referring to Liberty, not GT.

[Class of 20Something]

The team just needs to bring their A Game and not leave it up to the committee. Win and get in. The committee will always find a way to favor a bad P5.

[flamesfilmguy]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I don't see any foreseeable way for the flames to get an at large bid. with a conference RPI of 14 and an SOS over 125 and no major RPI bumps left on the schedule they almost certainly have to win the conference tournament to get in. 28 of their games were played against competition with an RPI over 150 and only 6 games(3-3) in the top 50 is not going to look good to a committee. I just don't see it happening. with Stetson and UNF having down year by their standards the Asun has also been down as a whole. There's just not enough there to merit an at large even if they win out their regular season games.

Love to be the bearer of good news; I do see a way for us to get an at large bid. Tournament has helped our SOS (117) and RPI (42), playing the two other best RPI teams in the conference twice. Conference RPI is up to 13. BYU is 0-2 in Quad 1 games and has a worse SOS. How would they have a better at large case than us, if we were to lose today? And by "we", I'm referring to Liberty, not GT.

I failed to account that we would play two extra games against Stetson AND Jacksonville lol that along with what now looks like the softest freaking bubble in a long time I’ll change my stance i think there’s a chance Liberty makes it. Now someone go tell the committee that Liberty needs to go to the Atlanta regional so I can see my buddy Nick Pierce and all you knuckleheads.

[jinxy]

I posted 3 weeks ago the bubble was weak. Had we have won 1 more against fgcu wed be a stone cold lock right now. As long as all 3 of those conf champ games dont go against us today were in. If they all go against us it will be a toss up since we didnt get the reg season title. I think if we win we have a decent shot at a 3 with unc and gt as most likely destinations.