- February 19th, 2009, 12:25 pm
#235536
The league has gotten a better rep due to Winthrop and CCU, Sly is right. Birmingham helped that cause as well when they were in the league. Those 3 squads proved there was some talent in the league and that even though the bottom of the league wasn't very good, there was balance at the top. It'd be nice if BSC was still in the league, bc with us emerging the last 4 years or so as a consistent threat that would give the league 4 very competitive teams. We've been competitive enough outside the league to give ourselves a little bit of a name. It also helps, whether you like/support Toman or not to have him at the helm bc he's a "name" in the college game. He's very well known, and being with Tanner at NC State and SC people equate him with success.
Having said all that, here's my analysis on the situation. An at-large is attainable, but very, very difficult. First we're going to have to win 40+, that is an absolute must, then you can't finish any worse than second in the conference in the regular season. Finishing second to CCU is justifiable, but if anyone else finishes above you such as Winthrop, who is just average or a little better right now, HPU, UNCA, the committee is going to write you off immediately saying if your not better than those teams you don't deserve it. I have to say i'd agree with that. Also, as a mid-major you have got to win the games your supposed to win. You have to sweep low RPI teams on the weekend, 2 of 3 isn't good enough. You basically have beat anyone outside the top 150 in the RPI. The only losses you can get away with is a loss to team that is respected, at the top of a bad league, bc sometimes RPI masks that due to SOS. Then you've got to find some wins against power conference schools. Vtech is almost a must win, bc once again the committee will say "well if you can't beat a 2 win ACC team, how can you compete with a 16 win ACC team. Then you just have to be competitive, two years ago SC was number 1 and it was 5-3 in the 6th and we had guys on 2nd and 3rd, we didn't score then they blew it open, but it was a competitive game. Last year at UVA we had a chance until about the 7th, you have to stay in games and compete. You can't get blasted 10-0, 15-2, etc.
Bottom line: 40+, win or finish 2nd in the league, spring an upset or two, win the ones your supposed to win
To add to that, I think if you get 2 of 3 from Coastal, get 40 and win the regular season, as long as you don't tank in the tourney your in. Provided Coastal is a 40+ team