A Sea Of Red

LUDad wrote:

LUDad wrote:Though I believe spiritual aspects will be of upmost importance in this family's decision, there are also other considerations to consider.

https://m.numberfire.com/mlb/news/2351/ ... chool-ones

I was watching the Giants-Braves game last night and in the 3rd inning the announcers begin discussing the failure rate of top draft picks. They made a point that 60% of the first 10 picks in the 2007 draft were total washouts. That brought me back to a link I provided a few days ago.

Not only is the total failure rate high, it is much worse for high school picks (see link). If you extrapolate the numbers provided in the link you will see that a college draft pick has a 30% higher chance of making the roster of a MLB team than a high school draft pick. That is a huge number.

My point is this: If your prime concern is financial then all means you should take the HS bonus money. On the other hand, if your dream to play MLB is much larger than the fear of losing money, then you significantly increase your odds of playing MLB by betting on yourself and going to college.

There is a lot of truth in what you are saying. I would feel better about our being able to use it as an argument for a player like Alex to come to Liberty if we had a bigger emphasis on and a better track record with player development.

olldflame wrote:

LUDad wrote:

LUDad wrote:Though I believe spiritual aspects will be of upmost importance in this family's decision, there are also other considerations to consider.

https://m.numberfire.com/mlb/news/2351/ ... chool-ones

I was watching the Giants-Braves game last night and in the 3rd inning the announcers begin discussing the failure rate of top draft picks. They made a point that 60% of the first 10 picks in the 2007 draft were total washouts. That brought me back to a link I provided a few days ago.

Not only is the total failure rate high, it is much worse for high school picks (see link). If you extrapolate the numbers provided in the link you will see that a college draft pick has a 30% higher chance of making the roster of a MLB team than a high school draft pick. That is a huge number.

My point is this: If your prime concern is financial then all means you should take the HS bonus money. On the other hand, if your dream to play MLB is much larger than the fear of losing money, then you significantly increase your odds of playing MLB by betting on yourself and going to college.

There is a lot of truth in what you are saying. I would feel better about our being able to use it as an argument for a player like Alex to come to Liberty if we had a bigger emphasis on and a better track record with player development.

Should not be much of an issue with Alex. No one but his Dad will be tinkering with his swing while in college. Conversley, a minor league coach may...

The involvement of his father in coaching him is an interesting factor. If both father and son feel strongly about it, it would weigh in our favor, since we apparently don't even have a batting coach.

I can't imagine a MLB organization not insisting on having total control on skill development, but I could be wrong on that. The thing which continues to tell me he plans on signing is the total silence on his part of even the possibility or option of college.

It looks like, as many other top prospects have done, he picked the school he would want to attend as a fallback in case of injury or other unexpected setback which would drop his draft stock. By signing a NLI, the recruiting process, which was probably a bit of a pain for someone focused on other things, was ended. One less distraction.

I personally wouldn't put much stock in whether or not he mentions college (Liberty in particular or college in general) in his interviews. If Im a good reporter, my job is to drive the questions toward what will get you what you need for your story.

You don't think it would make a story if a potential first round pick would consider turning down the money? I think it would. On the other hand, if I'm Alex I would not play that hand which could potentially lower his stock with the teams.

olldflame wrote:The involvement of his father in coaching him is an interesting factor. If both father and son feel strongly about it, it would weigh in our favor, since we apparently don't even have a batting coach.

I can't imagine a MLB organization not insisting on having total control on skill development, but I could be wrong on that. The thing which continues to tell me he plans on signing is the total silence on his part of even the possibility or option of college.

It looks like, as many other top prospects have done, he picked the school he would want to attend as a fallback in case of injury or other unexpected setback which would drop his draft stock. By signing a NLI, the recruiting process, which was probably a bit of a pain for someone focused on other things, was ended. One less distraction.

May not be a factor, but the lawsuit MLB is facing concerning pay in the minors (does not met minimum wage requirements) is likely coming to trial in 2017. Depending on outcome, may be easier to keep more of that bonus money in the bank than using it to subsidize 2-3 years in the minors if you are coming out in 2019 vs, 2016. As it is, he will never see 40-50% of his bonus money after taxes and agent/advisor fees.

flamehunter wrote:You don't think it would make a story if a potential first round pick would consider turning down the money? I think it would. On the other hand, if I'm Alex I would not play that hand which could potentially lower his stock with the teams.

I certainly think it would as well flamehunter...but it comes down to a discussion between the reporter and his/her editor and that editor makes the final decision as to what angle they take with the story and what questions to ask.

Donny Everett, the player that drowned a few days on the eve of the first regional game, turned down a $2,500,000 signing bonus last year to play for Vanderbilt.

http://www.anchorofgold.com/2015/6/12/8 ... vanderbilt

SumItUp wrote:Donny Everett, the player that drowned a few days on the eve of the first regional game, turned down a $2,500,000 signing bonus last year to play for Vanderbilt.

http://www.anchorofgold.com/2015/6/12/8 ... vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has an excellent player development reputation, and the players that spend 3-4 years there have had a pretty good track record of progressing rapidly through the minors and playing in the ML. They have also been regular national championship contenders the last several years. Oh yeah, a degree from Vandy is pretty solid too.

olldflame wrote:

SumItUp wrote:Donny Everett, the player that drowned a few days on the eve of the first regional game, turned down a $2,500,000 signing bonus last year to play for Vanderbilt.

http://www.anchorofgold.com/2015/6/12/8 ... vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has an excellent player development reputation, and the players that spend 3-4 years there have had a pretty good track record of progressing rapidly through the minors and playing in the ML. They have also been regular national championship contenders the last several years. Oh yeah, a degree from Vandy is pretty solid too.

That's getting back to what you value most in this life. Alex could have have his pick of any school in the nation. But he stuck with Liberty. Why? It was a spiritual decision. Call me crazy, but I would pay to sent my kids to a Christian over getting a free ride at any Ivy League school. This is primarily why I think we have a shot at getting him.

#15 overall to the Twins.

Slot value of $2.8 million.

Maybe since the Twins are terrible that will push him to stay committed to LU?

I hope he comes to LU. But if he signs with Twins I will wish him all the best.

Hard to imagine that he will come to LU. He isn't going to improve his status in the draft any. In addition, most of the teams know what kind of a chance they have to sign a player taken this high in the draft.
The pitcher who was so good against us in the Kent St. game was drafted high as well. He had good stuff and was also LH as I remember.

Hes already indicated that he will sign. Forget about him and hope we hold onto lee locklear and morris. This kid never had any intention of coming if he went in first round. Thats pretty easy to see

flameshaw wrote:Hard to imagine that he will come to LU. He isn't going to improve his status in the draft any. In addition, most of the teams know what kind of a chance they have to sign a player taken this high in the draft.
The pitcher who was so good against us in the Kent St. game was drafted high as well. He had good stuff and was also LH as I remember.

MLB teams have a VERY good idea who they can sign and for how much. They don't want to waste a first round pick on a player who has other plans. The Vandy pitcher who tragically died recently was drafted low because everyone knew he was going to college. The team that drafted him in a low round took a flier with a pick that wasn't worth much and then offered him 2.5mil because if he changed his mind and signed he was worth it. Unfortunately for us, it looks like Alex is going to be employed by the Twins.

And I guess this makes it official.

Most likely...although weirder things have happened Im sure. Good luck to him and maybe he bucks the trend and does well for them and makes his way up the system and we are watching him on FSN p;aying for the Twins wistfully contemplating what he could have done in an LU uniform...The numbers certainly aren't in his favor but itll be fun to watch his progress.

BTW if you guys remember Amherst product Nathan Trevillian, it looks like he is finally going to get his pro career started down in the GCL this summer (unless the web staff for MILB.com has dropped the ball, which wouldn't be a huge shocker to me either)

BJWilliams wrote:Most likely...although weirder things have happened Im sure. Good luck to him and maybe he bucks the trend and does well for them and makes his way up the system and we are watching him on FSN pitching for the Twins wistfully contemplating what he could have done in an LU uniform...The numbers certainly aren't in his favor but itll be fun to watch his progress.

BTW if you guys remember Amherst product Nathan Trevillian, it looks like he is finally going to get his pro career started down in the GCL this summer (unless the web staff for MILB.com has dropped the ball, which wouldn't be a huge shocker to me either)

He won't be pitching in the pros. He'll probably be a left fielder.

Noted...will edit accordingly

What a moron. Passing up a stellar education for 2.8 million. Selfish!

thepostman wrote:What a moron. Passing up a stellar education for 2.8 million. Selfish!

Clearly doesn't love Jesus.

Clearly!