[Kricket]

Last year I tracked our BPI throughout the season, and in true Liberty with McKay as coach form, it just keeps getting better.

Right now we are ranked 67 in BPI and projected to have the best record in all of college basketball at 24.6-4.4 per the following link. We also have a 93.7 chance of winning the conference in the regular season.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... rojections

What's even more crazy is that we are projected as a 9.5 seed and have a 37.1% to make it to the round of 32. We are listed at having a 1.5% of going to the Final 4. Obviously not a likelihood, but it shows how quickly the objective of the team has changed from hopefully winning a few Big South games to hopefully winning an NCAA tournament game or two.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... tournament

The 2014-2015 season we won 8 games total and, with some good shooting, we may see that total matched this weekend already.

To say we're spoiled as fans of LU basketball, and football for that matter, is an understatement. It's not only that the team is winning, it's the attitude of unselfishness in how they play. Unbelievable job to the team and Coach McKay, and hopefully it'll only gets better from here!

[Kricket]

I believe we are currently the only 7-0 team in the country at least temporarily. So at least for a little while we have the best record in all of D1 basketball.

[Man_the_kay]

Compared to 2014-2015 season (8-24), we've already moved to 8-0 in this season.

[olldflame]

I believe we are currently the only 7-0 team in the country at least temporarily. So at least for a little while we have the best record in all of D1 basketball.

There are now a couple of other 7-0 teams, but we are all alone at 8-0.

[Kricket]

Just checked the BPI and we are 39 overall. This has to be the highest ranking we ever received.

We also are projected to go a whopping 27-3! That's a few games above any other team in the nation based solely on record.

97.6% chance of winning the A Sun regular season. Time for a new conference.

Predicted seed is 8.3. Almost four slots above last year which was by far our best finish ever by 4 seeds.

Percentage chance of these finishes in the tournament:

Round of 32 - 51.4%
Sweet 16 - 22.7%
Elite 8 - 9.8%
Final 4 - 4.0%
Championship - 1.5%
Winning Championship - 0.6%

As a reference, the Tar Heels are only twice as likely to win the title. These projections are crazy. I can't believe how quickly McKay has improved this program and how consistently. Hopefully it keeps on going!

[Geraldos Mustache]

97.6% chance of winning the A Sun regular season. Time for a new conference.

All amazing news - my only disagreement is your statement "Time for a new conference". The benefit of the ASUN is Liberty's ability to win multiple Conference Championships and Conference Tournament Championships - thus guaranteeing LU makes the NCAA Tournament multiple years in a row.

If Liberty makes 3-4 NCAA tournaments in a row - everyone who follows college basketball will know who Liberty is. People will EXPECT Liberty to be in the Tournament and not ask "who is Liberty?". That would bode very well for recruiting.

[Kricket]

Meh, I get your point. Just not sure I can get that excited to play teams that are ranked in the 200-300s. Maybe for a few more years, but I sure hope beating up on inferior competition isn't a long term goal of ours.

[Geraldos Mustache]

Meh, I get your point. Just not sure I can get that excited to play teams that are ranked in the 200-300s. Maybe for a few more years, but I sure hope beating up on inferior competition isn't a long term goal of ours.

The long term goal is to build a high-quality program with national interest. The best way to do this (in basketball) is to have a regular seat at the table with NCAA Tournament. Five years from now, we move up to a conference in which we avoid playing 200-300 ranked teams.

I live in Illinois. I have a kid at Liberty. Most people I have conversations with in the marketplace have no idea what Liberty is or where it is located. That needs to change. Multiple NCAA Tournament appearances and Bowl Game appearances will provide much needed exposure for Liberty.

[Kricket]

Sure, except I think it may be just as easy to get to the tournament in the AAC. I think it was 4 out of 12 teams went to the NCAA tournament last year.

Maybe "easy" is the wrong word. A self-confident coach and team would prefer one off night not to completely destroy NCAA tournament hopes. We lose one game in the A Sun tournament and we're likely not making it to the NCAA tournament. Both have their challenges but I'd prefer hard work dictate results over luck.

I also think we recruit better if we're in the AAC. It's not like we'd be overmatched right now in the AAC. We'd be one of the top teams already, positioned for an NCAA tournament at large bid. But add AAC to where we are right now and I think we could be one of the better teams in the conference long term, actually increasing our odds of making the tournament year over year. Our odds of winning in the NCAA tournament and making an Elite 8 go dramatically up. You don't get recognition for being in the tournament as much as you do by winning in the tournament.

In practicality, I think we're almost saying the same thing, because we likely won't be in the AAC in the next few years even if the conversation started now. We need to be open to moving to the AAC whenever that window opens, whether that is tomorrow or five years from now. Judging by what Ian McCaw said, he's thinking the same.

[Geraldos Mustache]

Sure, except I think it may be just as easy to get to the tournament in the AAC. I think it was 4 out of 12 teams went to the NCAA tournament last year.

Maybe "easy" is the wrong word. A self-confident coach and team would prefer one off night not to completely destroy NCAA tournament hopes. We lose one game in the A Sun tournament and we're likely not making it to the NCAA tournament. Both have their challenges but I'd prefer hard work dictate results over luck.

I also think we recruit better if we're in the AAC. It's not like we'd be overmatched right now in the AAC. We'd be one of the top teams already, positioned for an NCAA tournament at large bid. But add AAC to where we are right now and I think we could be one of the better teams in the conference long term, actually increasing our odds of making the tournament year over year. Our odds of winning in the NCAA tournament and making an Elite 8 go dramatically up. You don't get recognition for being in the tournament as much as you do by winning in the tournament.

In practicality, I think we're almost saying the same thing, because we likely won't be in the AAC in the next few years even if the conversation started now. We need to be open to moving to the AAC whenever that window opens, whether that is tomorrow or five years from now. Judging by what Ian McCaw said, he's thinking the same.

Kricket - I tip my hat to you.
I read your post and agree with 100% of what you are saying. It's not easy to sway opinions on a message board like this, but BOOM - you got me 100%. I totally agree with literally everything you said.

As Liberty fans, we need to remember these formative years. This is the good stuff. The days of being good - not great, but on your way to greatness. The days of proving yourself and developing a "brand". The days of growing recognition. Five years from now, everyone will know Liberty basketball the same way they know Belmont or even Butler. It takes sustained success. We are just beginning that sustained success. We have the right coach. We have the facilities. We are an emerging talent. The recruiting will just get better and better. Let's enjoy the ride!

[Class of 20Something]

Sure, except I think it may be just as easy to get to the tournament in the AAC. I think it was 4 out of 12 teams went to the NCAA tournament last year.

Maybe "easy" is the wrong word. A self-confident coach and team would prefer one off night not to completely destroy NCAA tournament hopes. We lose one game in the A Sun tournament and we're likely not making it to the NCAA tournament. Both have their challenges but I'd prefer hard work dictate results over luck.

I also think we recruit better if we're in the AAC. It's not like we'd be overmatched right now in the AAC. We'd be one of the top teams already, positioned for an NCAA tournament at large bid. But add AAC to where we are right now and I think we could be one of the better teams in the conference long term, actually increasing our odds of making the tournament year over year. Our odds of winning in the NCAA tournament and making an Elite 8 go dramatically up. You don't get recognition for being in the tournament as much as you do by winning in the tournament.

In practicality, I think we're almost saying the same thing, because we likely won't be in the AAC in the next few years even if the conversation started now. We need to be open to moving to the AAC whenever that window opens, whether that is tomorrow or five years from now. Judging by what Ian McCaw said, he's thinking the same.

Kricket - I tip my hat to you.
I read your post and agree with 100% of what you are saying. It's not easy to sway opinions on a message board like this, but BOOM - you got me 100%. I totally agree with literally everything you said.

As Liberty fans, we need to remember these formative years. This is the good stuff. The days of being good - not great, but on your way to greatness. The days of proving yourself and developing a "brand". The days of growing recognition. Five years from now, everyone will know Liberty basketball the same way they know Belmont or even Butler. It takes sustained success. We are just beginning that sustained success. We have the right coach. We have the facilities. We are an emerging talent. The recruiting will just get better and better. Let's enjoy the ride!

[Kricket]

Kricket - I tip my hat to you.
I read your post and agree with 100% of what you are saying. It's not easy to sway opinions on a message board like this, but BOOM - you got me 100%. I totally agree with literally everything you said.

As Liberty fans, we need to remember these formative years. This is the good stuff. The days of being good - not great, but on your way to greatness. The days of proving yourself and developing a "brand". The days of growing recognition. Five years from now, everyone will know Liberty basketball the same way they know Belmont or even Butler. It takes sustained success. We are just beginning that sustained success. We have the right coach. We have the facilities. We are an emerging talent. The recruiting will just get better and better. Let's enjoy the ride!

I read this as slightly sarcastic at first, but on second read it appears you're sincere. It's really cool of of you to say! It's way better than beating each other up all the time, so I appreciate the kind words.

I do agree with your comments as well on appreciating these times. It's part of the reason I like posting our BPI. Last year I posted a tracker of where our BPI ended all of the last 6 or 7 years and you can see significant factual improvement every single year. Hopefully this year is no different. If so, we're in for a special year!

[Kricket]

Ok, so I wanted to post a break down of every single game's odds of us winning. Here it is :

Game/Odds to Win
GCU - 0.833
@ Vandy - 0.599
Towson - 0.757
@LSU - 0.29
@FGCU - 0.921
@NJIT - 0.83
N. ALA - 0.963
Jacksonville - 0.95
Lipscomb - 0.93
@N. Florida - 0.707
@Stetson - 0.893
Kennesaw St. - 0.983
FGCU - 0.98
@Jacksonville - 0.832
@ N. Ala - 0.824
NJIT - 0.945
N. Florida - 0.911
Stetson - 0.97
@Kennesaw St. - 0.943
@Lipscomb - 0.783

This puts our projected record at 26.84 - 3.16. Obviously if we won every game we're favored in we'd only have one loss.

Right now, our odds at being undefeated are about 1.83%. If we get through the LSU game undefeated our odds go up to 16.72%, and probably even better because it means our team is much better than estimated right now. Essentially this means we have a 16.72% chance of winning every single conference game.

Imagine, 2-3 years ago if someone said we'd be playing FGCU and Lipscomb and have a 98% and 93% chance of winning at home. This is a perfect demonstration of how much the conference has dropped and how much Liberty has risen quickly.

[Kricket]

Here are the new projections:

Game/Odds to Win
Towson - 0.778
@LSU - 0.27
@FGCU - 0.94
@NJIT - 0.849
N. ALA - 0.966
Jacksonville - 0.947
Lipscomb - 0.937
@N. Florida - 0.727
@Stetson - 0.916
Kennesaw St. - 0.982
FGCU - 0.984
@Jacksonville - 0.848
@ N. Ala - 0.834
NJIT - 0.953
N. Florida - 0.917
Stetson - 0.975
@Kennesaw St. - 0.941
@Lipscomb - 0.812

This puts our new projected record at 27.6-2.4. I know Lunardi mentioned that we have to beat LSU to get an at large. I'd have a hard time believing a two loss Liberty team (assuming we lose to LSU and in the conference tournament) doesn't get into the tournament. We'd have over 30 wins at that point with one bad loss and one decent loss.

Our chances of going undefeated went all the way up to 4.26%. If we make it through the LSU unbeaten they will be up to 20.27% or better.

The best chance we have of losing in conference is @ North Florida, and that's only a 27% chance of losing. I'm not excited for conference play for that reason as it won't feel great to win any game, however any loss will be extremely disappointing.

[jinxy]

He is one of the least accurate prognosticators out there.

Big weekend coming up. We should win both but they can beat us.

2 losses ill take all the money joe wants to put up that were in. Especially with all the parody. Hopefully it doesnt matter.

[lynchburgwildcats]

Here are the new projections:

Game/Odds to Win
Towson - 0.778
@LSU - 0.27
@FGCU - 0.94
@NJIT - 0.849
N. ALA - 0.966
Jacksonville - 0.947
Lipscomb - 0.937
@N. Florida - 0.727
@Stetson - 0.916
Kennesaw St. - 0.982
FGCU - 0.984
@Jacksonville - 0.848
@ N. Ala - 0.834
NJIT - 0.953
N. Florida - 0.917
Stetson - 0.975
@Kennesaw St. - 0.941
@Lipscomb - 0.812

This puts our new projected record at 27.6-2.4. I know Lunardi mentioned that we have to beat LSU to get an at large. I'd have a hard time believing a two loss Liberty team (assuming we lose to LSU and in the conference tournament) doesn't get into the tournament. We'd have over 30 wins at that point with one bad loss and one decent loss.

Our chances of going undefeated went all the way up to 4.26%. If we make it through the LSU unbeaten they will be up to 20.27% or better.

The best chance we have of losing in conference is @ North Florida, and that's only a 27% chance of losing. I'm not excited for conference play for that reason as it won't feel great to win any game, however any loss will be extremely disappointing.

Sure, only one bad loss and one decent loss, but zero good wins. Vanderbilt likely isn't even going to finish in the top 100 on KenPom. The schedule is one of the worst in the country, and the committee very rarely ever awards teams for having a terrible SOS.

Warren Nolan's predicted RPI team sheet has Liberty with just one game against an opponent in the top 100 by season's end, which is LSU. Highest ranked win would be Radford at 106 followed by Navy at 126. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/ ... am=Liberty

Bart Torvik's website has a tool where you can enter the results of a team's schedule and will autopopulate a projected conference tournament schedule. I put them in as winning every game exept with a loss to LSu and a loss in the ASun title game. Liberty winded up in the last four out. And that was with the ASun tournament being counted as all neutral site games where a W would count higher in the metrics and a loss count less than they would if they were home games. For some reason it wouldn't spout out the results if I had the ASun tournament games as home games.

http://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php? ... m=&x5_res=

[thepostman]

You're right, our schedule is extremely weak this year and it will probably hurt us come tournament time. One thing going for us is that we won a game in the tourney last year and the committee has a history of taking past success into account whether they want to admit it or not.

[lynchburgwildcats]

You're right, our schedule is extremely weak this year and it will probably hurt us come tournament time. One thing going for us is that we won a game in the tourney last year and the committee has a history of taking past success into account whether they want to admit it or not.

I would venture to guess that it would easily be the worst SOS for an at-large team in the metrics-era history of the tournament.

[thepostman]

I don't know about that but I don't have the time to verify that but it seems like a bit of hyperbole from you. Every year, it seems, there is a team or 2 that makes it with awful schedules.

[Jonathan Carone]

Our only path this year is through the ASun tournament.

[Kricket]

Our only path this year is through the ASun tournament.

You're saying we go 31-0 in the regular season and don't get an at large. No way.

[thepostman]

Our only path this year is through the ASun tournament.

Yeah, it sucks that is the way it has to be but with our schedule, an at large isn't happening. It'll become interesting where we will be seeded if we win the conference title with such a weak schedule.

[Jonathan Carone]

Our only path this year is through the ASun tournament.

You're saying we go 31-0 in the regular season and don't get an at large. No way.

I don’t think we do. It’ll be controversial but given our league being down and lack of quality teams on our schedule, there will be justification for not letting us in.

And for the record - I don’t blame our program for this schedule. We’re in the awkward in between where beating us provides no value and losing to us is embarrassing. There’s no incentive for anyone to play us.

[lynchburgwildcats]

I don't know about that but I don't have the time to verify that but it seems like a bit of hyperbole from you. Every year, it seems, there is a team or 2 that makes it with awful schedules.

Their current SOS on KenPom is 347. There are only 353 teams in Division I.

Warren Nolan projects them with an end of regular season SOS of 298 out of 353.

ESPN's BPI has the remainder of their schedule's SOS as 272 with their current SOS at 352. Weighting those out to come to an average would put the season ending SOS at 304 out of 353.

Belmont was the lowest ranked SOS team to get an at large last year at 194 on KenPom, but this is with postseason data included, but one or two games at the end of a 30+ game schedule isn't going to have much impact on SOS.

2018, St. Bonaventure, 94
2017, St. Mary's, 127
2016, Wichita St., 88
2015, Boise State, 121
2014, Louisville, 95
2013, Middle Tennessee, 191
2012, BYU, 125
2011, George Mason, 105
2010, Utah St., 136
2009, Dayton, 110
2008, South Alabama (what?), 194
2007, Old Dominion, 141
2006, George Washington, 184
2005, Pacific, 146
2004, Air Force, 143
2003, Southern Illinois, 124
2002, Tulsa, 122

And that's as far back as KenPom goes. So the most beneficial LU projection of 298 would be over 100 spots worse than the worst at-large SOS since before the KenPom era.

[Kricket]

I don’t think we do. It’ll be controversial but given our league being down and lack of quality teams on our schedule, there will be justification for not letting us in.

I think they have an excuse to not let us in. That being said, 31-0 is too controversial to not let in, like you said.

It's all hypothetical now, as there is only a 4 percent chance it happens anyway, and on top of that we'd have to lose in our conference tournament. So the odds are probably less then 1 percent we have that scenario play out.