- January 5th, 2019, 2:17 pm
#568990
Joe Lunardi thinks it can happen.
In the old days, when mid-majors didn't have to be perfect and the NCAA bracket wasn't bloated with mediocre power conference teams, a decent at-large case could be made for teams such as Lipscomb and conferences such as the Atlantic Sun.http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... rise-march
The Bisons have a pair of "Grade A" road victories: against TCU, a near-lock NCAA tournament team, and SMU, more likely an NIT team but still very much top 100. And the A-Sun is creeping toward the top 20 in conference rankings after foundering in the bottom third of all leagues for much of the past decade.
The main sources of improvement are the dramatic nonconference successes of both Lipscomb and Liberty. The Bisons' pre-league mark of 9-4 is well-earned against the nation's No. 54 schedule. And Liberty, at 10-5, has played almost as well while also contributing quite recently to the firing of Steve Alford at UCLA.
Lipscomb, though, is the team to watch if you're looking for sleepers that can win in March. With a NET ranking of 38 and composite ranking -- KenPom, KPI, BPI, Sagarin and others -- of 54.43, the Bisons rate very favorably among teams that land those upset-minded 11 and 12 seeds on Selection Sunday.
Their ability to get there, however, will be forged on the road in Atlantic Sun play. That's where mid-majors typically get tripped up, and it is exactly where Lipscomb begins conference play -- at Jacksonville, at 6 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+.
The Bisons are 4-5 at Jacksonville in this decade. Despite being heavily favored, Saturday's contest sits as the kind of bogey that can instantly disqualify a team from at-large consideration. The big boys lose occasionally to sub-300 teams and survive, but it is a death knell for any squads outside the upper echelon of Division I.
The Bisons are not a great outside shooting team (.337 on 3-pointers, No. 196 in Division I) and Jacksonville is No. 14 in the nation in blocked shot percentage. So there is a scenario in which Lipscomb goes extra cold from the outside and the underdog Dolphins prevail in a low-scoring contest.
All of which would put a damper on what figure to be a pair of high-level games against Liberty later in the season (Jan. 29 and Feb. 13). In the meantime, both teams will need a few breaks away from home to maximize the import of those encounters.