If roundball is your blood, this is the place to discuss the Flames as they move into the Ritchie McKay era for the 2nd time.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke

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By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#564001
So we did this in football but I thought it'd be fun to track Liberty's projected record in basketball based on ESPN's basketball power index.

So I projected Liberty's record with two things in mind. The first is if Liberty's record based on statistical odds, and the other is if Liberty won every game they were favored in. Here are the projected results:

Opponent Liberty's Odds to Win
Maine-Fort Kent 100.0%
Trevecca Nazarene 100.0%
at Kent State 100.0%
at Vanderbilt 0.0%
Alcorn State 100.0%
Savannah State 95.4%
at Navy 68.0%
Georgia State 52.2%
at Georgetown 28.2%
South Carolina State 93.6%
Kentucky Christian 99.6%
Alabama 24.5%
Alabama State 81.7%
at UCLA 27.1%
at FGC 48.2%
at Stetson 78.7%
Jacksonville 86.1%
at Kennesaw State 81.8%
North Florida 82.6%
North Alabama 95.8%
at Jacksonville 55.6%
Lipscomb 66.8%
NJIT 76.7%
Stetson 94.6%
FGC 80.4%
at Lipscomb 35.9%
at North Alabama 85.8%
at North Florida 55.9%
Kennesaw State 94.1%
at NJIT 48.4%
Total 21.377

As you can see, based on my math the expectation for this team should be 21-9. If we beat the teams we're supposed to beat we would end up 23-7 in the regular season. I think most would be pretty pumped with the final results ended up putting Liberty at 21-23 wins with only 3-4 conference losses.

What are your thoughts?
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By jinxy
Registration Days Posts
#564100
I was just doing the math earlier and i was coming up around 23 or 24 and 7. I may have counted one game too many. Next week is a big one because navy and georgia state are 2 key games that are in the 50/50 range. I think we get one of the alabama georgetown games and its not out of the realm of possibility to get both. Ucla in the L column. Alabama state, savannah state, non d1 and sc state are easy dubs. Campbell or austin peay is the only other toss up game.

Conference wise. Lipsomb looks as advertised. Fgcu is really struggling at 2 and 5. Njit is 6 and 1 but they havent really played anyone. Rest of the league seems to be mediocore at best.

If we can come in around 26 and 7 and win tourney that would get us in the 14 seed range i would think. Maybe even 13 range depending on what we do agains the remaining p5s and lipsomb fgcu and ga state.
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By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#564107
I missed the Campbell/Austin Peay game. That's why you have one more game. It's not showing up on ESPN yet...

You also may have had 24 wins because FGC has played themselves into projecting as two wins for LU now. When I did the math it was an L for Liberty at FGC.

Objectively looking at it, LU has a reasonably good shot at winning the conference. That being said, winning the conference tourney is always tough.

It appears the A Sun is panning out to be weaker than we thought with FGC looking pretty horrible.

Interestingly ESPN is showing we have a better chance to beat UCLA than Alabama. I would be happy with one win against Georgetown, Alabama, and UCLA.
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By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#564136
So I updated some numbers. Most of the numbers have changed in Liberty's favor. If the math is done by adding up all of the percentages Liberty should end up around 22-9. If Liberty is able to win every game it will be favored in, they will be 25-6.

Opponent/Chance to Win
Maine-Fort Kent 100.0%
Trevecca Nazarene 100.0%
at Kent State 100.0%
at Vanderbilt 0.0%
Alcorn State 100.0%
Savannah State 100.0%
at Navy 71.4%
Georgia State 54.6%
at Georgetown 30.6%
South Carolina State 94.2%
Kentucky Christian 99.7%
Alabama 27.3%
Alabama State 82.5%
at UCLA 26.4%
at FGC 51.9%
at Stetson 81.5%
Jacksonville 87.6%
at Kennesaw State 85.5%
North Florida 84.1%
North Alabama 96.3%
at Jacksonville 58.5%
Lipscomb 67.9%
NJIT 75.9%
Stetson 95.4%
FGC 82.5%
at Lipscomb 37.1%
at North Alabama 87.3%
at North Florida 58.6%
Kennesaw State 95.5%
at NJIT 47.4%
Campbell or Austin Peay 51.0%
Total 22.307

Just for kicks, Liberty has roughly a 1 in 56,000 chance to win the remainder of their games.
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By cruzan_flame13
Posts
#564425
BuryYourDuke wrote:Imagine being higher than 200 4 years ago...unthinkable. When the new arena opens this program is going to be lit.
To be honest, I never thought you’d use a slang like that in a sentence. Nonetheless, it fits well at this moment.
#564689
Class of 20Something wrote:
11/29

Currently Liberty's BPI sits at 80, right next to number 81 Georgetown. Also above 93 Lipscomb.

Kenpom has Lipscomb at 92, Georgetown at 97 and Liberty at 117.

12/2

BPI
63 Liberty
80 Georgetown
82 Lipscomb
85 UCLA

KenPom
53 UCLA
83 Lipscomb
91 Liberty
98 Georgetown
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By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#564738
Opponent/Chance of Winning
Maine-Fort Kent 100.0%
Trevecca Nazarene 100.0%
at Kent State 100.0%
at Vanderbilt 0.0%
Alcorn State 100.0%
Savannah State 100.0%
at Navy 100.0%
Georgia State 100.0%
at Georgetown 38.9%
South Carolina State 95.9%
Kentucky Christian 99.8%
Alabama 38.2%
Alabama State 90.0%
at UCLA 35.6%
at FGC 68.1%
at Stetson 89.8%
Jacksonville 92.3%
at Kennesaw State 92.4%
North Florida 88.9%
North Alabama 97.7%
at Jacksonville 75.0%
Lipscomb 69.9%
NJIT 83.8%
Stetson 97.2%
FGC 90.1%
at Lipscomb 39.3%
at North Alabama 91.7%
at North Florida 68.3%
Kennesaw State 97.7%
at NJIT 59.6%
Campbell or Austin Peay 65.0%
Total 24.652

Based on the ESPN Basketball Power Index, Liberty will win 24 or 25 games. If Liberty beats the teams that we currently would be favored to beat, we'd be 26-5 at the end of the regular season. A week ago, I somewhat jokingly stated that Liberty had a 1 out of 56,000 chance of winning out. Because of Liberty's play and the poor performance of the conference opponents the chances are down to 1 in 1,356. If Liberty finds a way to upset Georgetown, those odds likely get into the realm of 1 in 500.
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By flamesfilmguy
Registration Days Posts
#564826
Was at my first game in years in the vines and man do we look good. Some of you know I went to grad school at GSU and have kept up with them and coach Hunter for a while. That team is very good. They played terrible and I don't know what to think of them but man did we look good. The crowd was meh. but Its almost finals week so I kinda get it.
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By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#566546
Opponent/Chance of Winning
Maine-Fort Kent 100.0%
Trevecca Nazarene 100.0%
at Kent State 100.0%
at Vanderbilt 0.0%
Alcorn State 100.0%
Savannah State 100.0%
at Navy 100.0%
Georgia State 100.0%
at Georgetown 0.0%
South Carolina State 96.3%
Kentucky Christian 99.9%
Alabama 43.3%
Alabama State 91.2%
at UCLA 34.1%
at FGC 72.9%
at Stetson 90.4%
Jacksonville 91.8%
at Kennesaw State 93.4%
North Florida 89.9%
North Alabama 97.8%
at Jacksonville 73.6%
Lipscomb 69.4%
NJIT 83.2%
Stetson 97.4%
FGC 91.9%
at Lipscomb 38.7%
at North Alabama 92.2%
at North Florida 70.5%
Kennesaw State 98.1%
at NJIT 58.6%
Campbell or Austin Peay 65.0%
Total 24.396

Even with the loss to Georgetown, the projections of our record has not really changed. Likely 24 to 25 wins in the regular season and if we take care of business in games we will be favored in we will end up 26-5.

Georgetown should've beaten Syracuse (they blew a 15 point lead) so perhaps that loss won't hurt too bad when all is said and done. Still very excited to see how this team plays against UCLA and Alabama.
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By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#567242
Opponent/ %Chance of Winning
Maine-Fort Kent 100.0%
Trevecca Nazarene 100.0%
at Kent State 100.0%
at Vanderbilt 0.0%
Alcorn State 100.0%
Savannah State 100.0%
at Navy 100.0%
Georgia State 100.0%
at Georgetown 0.0%
South Carolina State 100.0%
Kentucky Christian 100.0%

Alabama 46.7%
Alabama State 91.9%
at UCLA 36.9%
at FGC 74.2%
at Stetson 91.5%
Jacksonville 92.3%
at Kennesaw State 93.1%
North Florida 90.3%
North Alabama 97.7%
at Jacksonville 75.1%
Lipscomb 68.8%
NJIT 83.6%
Stetson 97.7%
FGC 95.4%
at Lipscomb 38.0%
at North Alabama 92.0%
at North Florida 72.3%
Kennesaw State 98.0%
at NJIT 59.1%
Campbell or Austin Peay 65.0%
Total 24.596

Not a huge change this week, but still the best projected record we have seen all year. Most notably our chances of beating Alabama have risen to 46.7% which is pretty good considering Alabama is a solid SEC team and we will be on the road.

Liberty has a 1 out of 320 chance of winning the rest of their regular season games.
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By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#567395
Kricket wrote:Opponent/ %Chance of Winning
Maine-Fort Kent 100.0%
Trevecca Nazarene 100.0%
at Kent State 100.0%
at Vanderbilt 0.0%
Alcorn State 100.0%
Savannah State 100.0%
at Navy 100.0%
Georgia State 100.0%
at Georgetown 0.0%
South Carolina State 100.0%
Kentucky Christian 100.0%

Alabama 46.7%
Alabama State 91.9%
at UCLA 36.9%
at FGC 74.2%
at Stetson 91.5%
Jacksonville 92.3%
at Kennesaw State 93.1%
North Florida 90.3%
North Alabama 97.7%
at Jacksonville 75.1%
Lipscomb 68.8%
NJIT 83.6%
Stetson 97.7%
FGC 95.4%
at Lipscomb 38.0%
at North Alabama 92.0%
at North Florida 72.3%
Kennesaw State 98.0%
at NJIT 59.1%
Campbell or Austin Peay 65.0%
Total 24.596

Not a huge change this week, but still the best projected record we have seen all year. Most notably our chances of beating Alabama have risen to 46.7% which is pretty good considering Alabama is a solid SEC team and we will be on the road.

Liberty has a 1 out of 320 chance of winning the rest of their regular season games
.
If we win out, which would include wins over Alabama and UCLA (Sidebar: Belmont beat UCLA last week), our record would be 29-3 heading into the ASUN tournament
By olldflame
Registration Days Posts
#567436
BJWilliams wrote:
Kricket wrote:Opponent/ %Chance of Winning
Maine-Fort Kent 100.0%
Trevecca Nazarene 100.0%
at Kent State 100.0%
at Vanderbilt 0.0%
Alcorn State 100.0%
Savannah State 100.0%
at Navy 100.0%
Georgia State 100.0%
at Georgetown 0.0%
South Carolina State 100.0%
Kentucky Christian 100.0%

Alabama 46.7%
Alabama State 91.9%
at UCLA 36.9%
at FGC 74.2%
at Stetson 91.5%
Jacksonville 92.3%
at Kennesaw State 93.1%
North Florida 90.3%
North Alabama 97.7%
at Jacksonville 75.1%
Lipscomb 68.8%
NJIT 83.6%
Stetson 97.7%
FGC 95.4%
at Lipscomb 38.0%
at North Alabama 92.0%
at North Florida 72.3%
Kennesaw State 98.0%
at NJIT 59.1%
Campbell or Austin Peay 65.0%
Total 24.596

Not a huge change this week, but still the best projected record we have seen all year. Most notably our chances of beating Alabama have risen to 46.7% which is pretty good considering Alabama is a solid SEC team and we will be on the road.

Liberty has a 1 out of 320 chance of winning the rest of their regular season games
.
If we win out, which would include wins over Alabama and UCLA (Sidebar: Belmont beat UCLA last week), our record would be 29-3 heading into the ASUN tournament
I´m failing to comprehend how, with 2 losses now, we can win out and finish with 3. :dontgetit

Unless you are including the loss to VT? Exhibitions don´t count.
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By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#567437
My mistake. I guess i saw a third 0.00% while i was scanning that list. Still 29-2 would be impressive...and I believe a school record for regular season victories
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By prototype
Registration Days Posts
#567438
BJWilliams wrote:My mistake. I guess i saw a third 0.00% while i was scanning that list. Still 29-2 would be impressive...and I believe a school record for regular season victories
We are doing very well, but even the best teams lose a game or two they weren't expecting. I don't see us beating UCLA and have to imagine we won't go undefeated in ASUN.
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By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#567445
I concur proto, i was just projecting what our record would be if we paid off that 1 in 320 projection for winning out
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By FLAMEfromBAMA
Registration Days Posts
#569576
I still don’t fully understand BPI, but we are currently at 48. Ahead of Lipscomb (55), Alabama (57), Vandy (80), Austin Peay (88) and Georgetown (92). We are projected at 24.9-6.1 which is 16th best in the country.
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By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#569634
Liberty has no really bad losses. A lot of those teams do. Liberty also has been winning games convincingly. Not saying we're better than those teams but I think the margin of victory and fact that we have been beating the teams we are supposed to beat puts us higher mathematically.

NET rankings we are even higher ranked so there is something in the math that favors us.
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By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#570533
Based on our most recent BPI post, we are projected to finish 26-5, and if we win out (including sweeping Lipscomb) we would finish 27-4, which would be 1 off the school record for regular season wins and 4 clear of the D1 record. Our first chance to tie that would be...@ Lipscomb.
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By A Sea of Red
Posts Custom
#570535
BJWilliams wrote:Based on our most recent BPI post, we are projected to finish 26-5, and if we win out (including sweeping Lipscomb) we would finish 27-4, which would be 1 off the school record for regular season wins and 4 clear of the D1 record. Our first chance to tie that would be...@ Lipscomb.
The record of 28 isn't regular season. We won 28 when we won the NCCAA national championship. We only had 22 regular season wins that year.
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By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#570542
Ah...thanks for clarifying. So if we keep winning, that game @Lipscomb could be a record breaking game (in terms of regular season wins)?
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