If roundball is your blood, this is the place to discuss the Flames as they move into the Ritchie McKay era for the 2nd time.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke

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By Purple Haize
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#525271
Wvflame2013 wrote:I would like to see the correlation between the team that wins national championship and offensive rebounds per game.
Pardon the pun but that's going to be all over the board.
By Wvflame2013
Posts
#525273
Purple Haize wrote:
Wvflame2013 wrote:I would like to see the correlation between the team that wins national championship and offensive rebounds per game.
Pardon the pun but that's going to be all over the board.
I decided to answer it above. haha

Edit: Decided to answer the correlation for the past 10 National Champs.Y

Year - Team - ORB Rank - Avg Per Game

2007 - Florida - 171 - 10.9
2008- Kansas - 105 - 10.5
2009- N Carolina - 11 - 13.0
2010- Duke - 15 - 12.8
2011 - Uconn - 15 - 12.0
2012 - Kentucky - 52 - 10.9
2013 - Lousivlle - 10 - 12.3
2014 - Uconn - 270 - 8.1
2015 - Duke - 61 - 10.3
2016 - Villanova - 7.9

Avg Rank = 96.5 ----Avg ORB Per game = 10.87

Here are some current stats on various teams.
2016/17 Liberty - 3.4
2016 /17Virginia - 7.5
2016/17 WVU - 14.4
2016/17 Duke - 10.4
2016/17 NC - 14.2
2016/17 Kentucky - 13.6

According to the last 10 years around 8 offensive rebounds per game is needed at least. The sweet spot is near 11 per game though. There were three outliers with a rank of 270 - 270 --171. Wonder why that is? The teams shooting rank was 2016 Nova - 13th @ 48.3, 2014 Uconn - 116th @45 %, & 2007 Florida - 1st @ 52.6%. The teams shot rather well but not sure if that is the main key. Other stats is turnovers forced and margin. Defensive points per game etc.

Offensive rebounding though is rather important and 3.4 won't cut it, Even UVA at 7 won't cut it. A team such as WVU will get 11 more shots than Liberty, just because they rebounded offensively. Shooting at 50%, that is 11 more points just off rebounding.
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By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#525278
I have to wonder the average #of shot attempts, particularly 3 point attempts since those tend to yield longer rebounds
By Wvflame2013
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#525279
ballcoach15 wrote:I believe every offensive rebound a team gets, has potential for a 4 point swing on scoreboard. Maybe 5, if team hits a 3.
With that, a team such as WVU would have a 44-55 point swing in their game just because of their 11 offensive rebounds. That is the an unachievable result, so make that 50% and that's a 22-33 point swing in a game. Now we don't have to be killing the boards like WVU but 8-11 should be a goal. And this stat is with Homsley mostly. I imagine it will get worse as the season goes on without him.
By Wvflame2013
Posts
#525280
BJWilliams wrote:I have to wonder the average #of shot attempts, particularly 3 point attempts since those tend to yield longer rebounds
A team such as nova last year at 270 - 7.9 orpg shot 24 3's per game.They made 9.3 3's per game

Highest rebounding team in the country WVU. Shoots 20.8 3's and makes 7.7. That would be 13 longer rebounds per game.

We shoot 25.7 3's apg -10.2 mpg while UVA shoots 16.5 apg - 6.5 mpg. We would see 15 long rebounds per game while UVA would be at 10. Long rebounds are usually easier to get, and we do really bad at it.
Last edited by Wvflame2013 on January 3rd, 2017, 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#525282
Wvflame2013 wrote:
Purple Haize wrote:
Wvflame2013 wrote:I would like to see the correlation between the team that wins national championship and offensive rebounds per game.
Pardon the pun but that's going to be all over the board.
I decided to answer it above. haha

Edit: Decided to answer the correlation for the past 10 National Champs.Y

Year - Team - ORB Rank - Avg Per Game

2007 - Florida - 171 - 10.9
2008- Kansas - 105 - 10.5
2009- N Carolina - 11 - 13.0
2010- Duke - 15 - 12.8
2011 - Uconn - 15 - 12.0
2012 - Kentucky - 52 - 10.9
2013 - Lousivlle - 10 - 12.3
2014 - Uconn - 270 - 8.1
2015 - Duke - 61 - 10.3
2016 - Villanova - 7.9

Avg Rank = 96.5 ----Avg ORB Per game = 10.87

Here are some current stats on various teams.
2016/17 Liberty - 3.4
2016 /17Virginia - 7.5
2016/17 WVU - 14.4
2016/17 Duke - 10.4
2016/17 NC - 14.2
2016/17 Kentucky - 13.6

According to the last 10 years around 8 offensive rebounds per game is needed at least. The sweet spot is near 11 per game though. There were three outliers with a rank of 270 - 270 --171. Wonder why that is? The teams shooting rank was 2016 Nova - 13th @ 48.3, 2014 Uconn - 116th @45 %, & 2007 Florida - 1st @ 52.6%. The teams shot rather well but not sure if that is the main key. Other stats is turnovers forced and margin. Defensive points per game etc.

Offensive rebounding though is rather important and 3.4 won't cut it, Even UVA at 7 won't cut it. A team such as WVU will get 11 more shots than Liberty, just because they rebounded offensively. Shooting at 50%, that is 11 more points just off rebounding.
WVU will get a lot more shots because they Press and they don't have good shooters. I think you are focusing too much on offensive rebounding as a key to victory. Defensive rebounding is a much more key metric
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#525283
ballcoach15 wrote:I believe every offensive rebound a team gets, has potential for a 4 point swing on scoreboard. Maybe 5, if team hits a 3.
It's also a great opportunity for the offensive player to pick up an on the back call. Thus sending the opponent into the bonus earlier and that player to the bench sooner
By Wvflame2013
Posts
#525285
I decided to answer it above. haha

Edit: Decided to answer the correlation for the past 10 National Champs.Y

Year - Team - ORB Rank - Avg Per Game

2007 - Florida - 171 - 10.9
2008- Kansas - 105 - 10.5
2009- N Carolina - 11 - 13.0
2010- Duke - 15 - 12.8
2011 - Uconn - 15 - 12.0
2012 - Kentucky - 52 - 10.9
2013 - Lousivlle - 10 - 12.3
2014 - Uconn - 270 - 8.1
2015 - Duke - 61 - 10.3
2016 - Villanova - 7.9

Avg Rank = 96.5 ----Avg ORB Per game = 10.87

Here are some current stats on various teams.
2016/17 Liberty - 3.4
2016 /17Virginia - 7.5
2016/17 WVU - 14.4
2016/17 Duke - 10.4
2016/17 NC - 14.2
2016/17 Kentucky - 13.6

According to the last 10 years around 8 offensive rebounds per game is needed at least. The sweet spot is near 11 per game though. There were three outliers with a rank of 270 - 270 --171. Wonder why that is? The teams shooting rank was 2016 Nova - 13th @ 48.3, 2014 Uconn - 116th @45 %, & 2007 Florida - 1st @ 52.6%. The teams shot rather well but not sure if that is the main key. Other stats is turnovers forced and margin. Defensive points per game etc.

Offensive rebounding though is rather important and 3.4 won't cut it, Even UVA at 7 won't cut it. A team such as WVU will get 11 more shots than Liberty, just because they rebounded offensively. Shooting at 50%, that is 11 more points just off rebounding.[/quote]

WVU will get a lot more shots because they Press and they don't have good shooters. I think you are focusing too much on offensive rebounding as a key to victory. Defensive rebounding is a much more key metric[/quote]

The press with the offensive rebounding makes wvu that much more dangerous. They won't out shoot you percentage wise but they're going to take a heck of alot more shots that you. Huggins has always and always will be an offensive rebounder. Also, they are actually shooting rather decent this year at 49% that places them at 19th. 3 point alone, they are 94th at 36.9. We are at 39.9 - 30th. Defenisve is key because it stops 2nd chance points. Offensive rebounding is those second chance points and it is clear that really good teams offensively rebound.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#525286
I'm in no way discounting offensive rebounds. But even by your own admission it was behind shooting percentage, defense and defensive rebounding. Also, being aggressive on the offensive Glass will get you into foul trouble so you had better be deep. WVU and MSU (2 noted Offensive Rebounding teams) are deep and/or interchangeable. LU and UVA are not
By Wvflame2013
Posts
#525287
Purple Haize wrote:I'm in no way discounting offensive rebounds. But even by your own admission it was behind shooting percentage, defense and defensive rebounding. Also, being aggressive on the offensive Glass will get you into foul trouble so you had better be deep. WVU and MSU (2 noted Offensive Rebounding teams) are deep and/or interchangeable. LU and UVA are not
A very good shooting team can overcome the lack of offensive rebounding but not any lower than 8. They need to be in the 8-11 range. We're at 3.4 and UVA 7.5. Wvu and Msu aren't too bad at foul trouble although they offensive rebound.

Team - Rank - Foul per game
(top 5 offensive rebounding teams)
1. Kent State - 156 - 19
2. NC - 102 - 18.2
3. WVU - 194 - 19.5 (With their press)
4. UCSB - 179 - 19.3
5. Kentucky - 153 - 19.0
MSU - 250 - 20.3. (Only 8.9 offensive rebounds per game - Rank 187)
Mystery Team - 274 - 20.8

The mystery team is us.... We foul more than all the offensive rebounding teams. :shock: Offensive rebounding needs to be smart. If the player shoots from the left side, likelihood it's coming off the other side of the basket. All about knowing the angles and odds. That takes really good coaching.
By ballcoach15
Registration Days Posts
#525289
Get position and box out. That should be worked on every day in practice. When I played basketball I wasn't the tallest on court, but I got my share of rebounds because of positioning and boxing out.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#525291
ballcoach15 wrote:Get position and box out. That should be worked on every day in practice. When I played basketball I wasn't the tallest on court, but I got my share of rebounds because of positioning and boxing out.
Yes. The defense boxes you out and you still go for the ball and cause a foul.
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By WinthropEagleFan
Registration Days Posts
#525292
This thread got me looking...Currently against D1 opponents, LU is only rebounding 13.5% of its misses (according to kenpom.com)...not only is that lowest rate in the nation this season, it's the lowest rate he has in his database going back to the 2001-02 season. Not only is it the lowest, it is the lowest by a mile...no other program in that 15 year period has been below 17%. The D1 average this year is 29.8%....it's interesting that offensive rebounding rates have steadily fallen over the last 15 years...the national average was over 34% back in 2002.
By Wvflame2013
Posts
#525293
WinthropEagleFan wrote:This thread got me looking...Currently against D1 opponents, LU is only rebounding 13.5% of its misses (according to kenpom.com)...not only is that lowest rate in the nation this season, it's the lowest rate he has in his database going back to the 2001-02 season. Not only is it the lowest, it is the lowest by a mile...no other program in that 15 year period has been below 17%. The D1 average this year is 29.8%....it's interesting that offensive rebounding rates have steadily fallen over the last 15 years...the national average was over 34% back in 2002.
That's not a very good stat for us. I guarantee, our lack of offensive rebounding has cost us at least 1-2 games and will cause us to lose a few more.
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