Page 1 of 1

Playoff Scenarios

Posted: February 24th, 2009, 11:47 pm
by ToTheLeft
1 Seed- Radford (Clinched)
2 Seed- VMI (Clinched)

Now that that is out of the way...

VMI is 12-5 in conference
LU is 11-6
UNCA is 10-7

BREAKDOWN FOR LU:

LU beats RU, goes to 12-6
Puts UNCA in 4th
We are 3rd
If VMI loses to High Point, we would still be 3rd because VMI swept GWU and Winthrop, and would get the tiebreaker from us.

LU loses to RU, goes to 11-7
UNCA has a chance at 3rd, but only if...
They beat Presby at Presby, and here's where I am unsure on things. If Presby counts in the tiebreaker, and Presby beats GWU, they have a chance at getting the tiebreaker since Presby will be the first team in line that we didn't have an equal record against (they will have swept presby)

However, if Presby loses to GWU, and then to UNCA, they will be 8-10. Gardner Webb and Winthrop both have a good chance of finishing better than that. We just need to hope that Winthrop finishes ahead of GWU, since Winthrop swept the Dogs, and we would get the tiebreaker.

So, either we need to win, or, if we lose...

UNCA needs to lose

or

GWU needs to beat Presby, then lose to Chuck

and

Winthrop needs to win against Coastal, combined with a Presby loss to GWU and UNCA.

So, no chance at the 2... good chance at the 3, but also a pretty good chance of the 4...

3 seed will be just fine with me... first round matchup against GWU in the Vines and then a trip to Radford to play the Keydets or Coastal/HPU coming off an upset. Plus, we still have a shot at hosting the finals, because we still need the 1 seed to lose, and then the 2 seed will either lose in the first round, or we would have to beat them to get to the finals anyways. So the 2 v 3 is almost meaningless the more i think about it, aside from the first round matchup difference (Which honestly, GWU or CCU are both tough games for us in their own ways, we just need to beat whoever we play... i know that was stupidly simple but you know what I mean.)

We win our first two games and we give ourselves a shot at a Vines Center Final... or a trip back to Dedmon to play the Highs for the 2nd time in a week.

Posted: February 25th, 2009, 1:34 pm
by kingaling42
Ummm.. my head hurts reading this!! I'm gonna watch tonight's GW/Presby game & go from there..

I don't care if we (UNCA) finish 3rd or 4th- it''s only good for bragging right but I'm more concerned about match ups than talking smack to Flamesfans, so as long as we draw GW in the opening round it doesn't matter to be either 3rd or 4th- it's far better than that 9th place preseason pick they tabbed on us- LU & UNCA both know that we're either gonna get WU or GW at home.. we match up better vs GW but beating them 3 times isn't gonna be much easier..

Posted: February 25th, 2009, 8:22 pm
by flames1971
Wow. Let's just say Liberty will win the tourney and leave it at that :D

Posted: February 25th, 2009, 9:03 pm
by LUconn
Yeah I don't really care where we finish, just as long as we get a home game (which we already have) and it's against Winthrop. Gardner Webb scares me more and I just think we match up well with Winthrop and their lack of offense. It makes our lack of defense look a lot better. Although if Jesse is still out I don't know how we'd score more than 30 points against them.

Posted: February 26th, 2009, 9:23 am
by ToTheLeft
I think I have this figured out now....

We will make the playoffs as the 3 IF...

We win.

or

UNCA loses.

or

A long complicated scenario... but we'll leave it at Winthrop winning and GW Losing.

Any of those three is enough to get us in ahead of the Dogs.

Posted: February 26th, 2009, 9:53 am
by PAmedic
Playoffs?!!! Playoffs?!!! You're talking about Playoffs?!!!

sorry - was waiting to do that someday

Posted: February 26th, 2009, 12:22 pm
by 01Highlander
Just trying to figure this out.

#1 RU
#2 VMI

After Last nights action the following is what needs to happen for Liberty to be the 3 seed.

If Liberty wins Saturday, you all are 100% guaranteed the number 3 seed.
If RU wins on Saturday then you need

UNCA to lose then you are guaranteed the number 3 seed.

But if UNCA wins you will win the tie breaker if:

GW Loses to CSU
And
Winthrop to Beat Coastal?

Do I have this right?

Just FYI - I am new to the board, I enjoy reading about the other teams in the Big South, especially since RU is having such a good year.

I am pulling for Liberty to get the 3 seed. I want Liberty and VMI to play each other so RU will not have to go through Liberty and VMI to get the BSC Title.

Good luck this weekend, I hope you only lose by 1. :)

Posted: February 26th, 2009, 12:25 pm
by ToTheLeft
The scenario you listed is correct... There are other scenarios, too, but that's one of them... haha.

Posted: February 27th, 2009, 2:41 am
by Chris Lang
Coastal has clinched a spot even with the loss tonight. Worst CCU can finish is in a three-way tie at 5-13 and it finishes second in the three-way tiebreaker with CSU and HPU.

CSU 3-1 (swept Coastal, split with High Point)
CCU 2-2 (swept High Point)
HPU 1-3 (split with CSU)

The battle for the last spot will come down to tiebreakers, most likely. Don't see HPU beating VMI or CSU winning at G-W. If both teams lose, I think High Point gets the spot because it would have a split with G-W, which would finish fifth, even if its in a tie with Presby.

If they both win, then it comes down to who finishes higher between Winthrop and Presby. HPU is in if Winthrop finishes ahead of PC. CSU is in if PC finishes ahead of Winthrop.

Winthrop can only finish ahead of G-W with a win and a G-W loss.

Posted: February 27th, 2009, 12:39 pm
by markymark550
Chris Lang wrote:Coastal has clinched a spot even with the loss tonight. Worst CCU can finish is in a three-way tie at 5-13 and it finishes second in the three-way tiebreaker with CSU and HPU.

CSU 3-1 (swept Coastal, split with High Point)
CCU 2-2 (swept High Point)
HPU 1-3 (split with CSU)

The battle for the last spot will come down to tiebreakers, most likely. Don't see HPU beating VMI or CSU winning at G-W. If both teams lose, I think High Point gets the spot because it would have a split with G-W, which would finish fifth, even if its in a tie with Presby.

If they both win, then it comes down to who finishes higher between Winthrop and Presby. HPU is in if Winthrop finishes ahead of PC. CSU is in if PC finishes ahead of Winthrop.

Winthrop can only finish ahead of G-W with a win and a G-W loss.
Winthrop finishes ahead of GW if WU, GW, and PC all win this weekend. That puts those 3 teams at 9-9 and would finish:
WU (swept PC, split GW)
GW (split WU, split PC)
PC (split GW, swept by WU)

Posted: February 27th, 2009, 2:47 pm
by Chris Lang
Good catch, marky, and considering all three play at home, it's not an unlikely scenario. Thanks.

Posted: February 27th, 2009, 4:12 pm
by flames1971
01Highlander wrote:Just trying to figure this out.

#1 RU
#2 VMI

After Last nights action the following is what needs to happen for Liberty to be the 3 seed.

If Liberty wins Saturday, you all are 100% guaranteed the number 3 seed.
If RU wins on Saturday then you need

UNCA to lose then you are guaranteed the number 3 seed.

But if UNCA wins you will win the tie breaker if:

GW Loses to CSU
And
Winthrop to Beat Coastal?

Do I have this right?

Just FYI - I am new to the board, I enjoy reading about the other teams in the Big South, especially since RU is having such a good year.

I am pulling for Liberty to get the 3 seed. I want Liberty and VMI to play each other so RU will not have to go through Liberty and VMI to get the BSC Title.

Good luck this weekend, I hope you only lose by 1. :)
Wow. You are so nice. I hope you guys only lose by 1, too :twisted:

Posted: February 28th, 2009, 5:15 pm
by sweetnahmah1
well winthrop beat coastal

Posted: February 28th, 2009, 6:36 pm
by hurricane fan
You would think Radford would want us to finish 3rd so they wouldn't have to play us and VMI in the tournament.