[AATL]

Trying something new in hopes of chipping in toward bringing some life back into these forums. I really enjoy the data side of college football. As someone who didn’t play collegiately and doesn’t have time to watch much beyond my own teams and conferences, I find that data helps me get my bearings on where we fit in the broader CFB landscape. Unfortunately, I haven’t found a ton out there for the G6 – the P4 devours most of the analytics bandwidth as well as the polls and rankings discussions. As a grad of more than one mid-major institution (and a bit of a nerd), I decided to pull Bill Connelly’s SP+ data specifically to see how the analytics perceive the Group of 6 this year.

Intro: What is SP+?
SP+ is a metric designed by the great Bill Connelly that serves as a purely predictive, forward-facing efficiency metric for all 138 FBS football teams. Whereas the AP Top 25 and College Football Playoff rankings focus on a team’s win-loss resumé and are generally limited to P4 programs, SP+ assesses all programs and asks, “If these two teams played on a neutral field, what would the point spread be?” To answer that, SP+ strips out high-variance events (fumble bounces, era-defining kick-6 returns, etc.) and focuses on:
• Success Rate – Defined as getting 50% of the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd and 4th down
• Explosiveness – The frequency with which a team generates explosive plays
• Field Position & Finishing Drives – Ability to put 7 on the board instead of 3 in the red zone

An SP+ score of +15.0 means a team is projected to be 15 points per game better than a perfectly average FBS opponent. -15.0 means a team is projected to be 15 points worse than an average opponent… so basically, present-day Coastal

A Note on Preseason Rankings

Before the season, the SP+ algorithm weighs returning production, program success over the past 2-4 years, recruiting and transfer rankings, and coaching changes. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the portal doth taketh nature of G6 football means G6 teams face an uphill battle in the preseason rankings.

Does any of this matter?
Does 5-7 Mississippi State vs Miami-OH in the St. Petersburg Bowl matter? This is not the place for such philosophy. Let the data analysts feel like we’re participating in football for once.

Anywho, a conference chart:



SP+ sees two clear tiers in G6 football this year: on average, the American, Mountain West, and Pac-12 would average out as 5-10-point favorites over CUSA, the MAC, and the SBC. On paper, SP+ views CUSA (range of ~20 points) as more tightly competitive than either the MAC* or the SBC (~30 and ~25 point ranges, respectively). Still, the model has three clear preseason favorites within the conference: LU, WKU, and JAX would be roughly touchdown favorites over anyone else.

Data was pulled on Thursday and does not reflect UMASS’ bludgeoning of a B1G team (albeit Rutgers), their first win over a power conference opponent since 1978.



Only one CUSA team cracked the G6 Top 25 in the preseason SP+ rankings: Liberty
Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State sit right outside at #26 and #27, respectively.

Also – ye gods, Texas State. Lincoln Riley would be proud.

The view within CUSA looks much tighter. As it stands, the conference skews towards offense. The range of defenses is much tighter; the top four are neck-and-neck, and the drop-off to the middle of the pack is not severe.



Finally, a look at the balance across the G6:

• Top Right: Above-average G6 offense, above-average G6 defense
• Bottom Right: Above-average G6 defense, struggles to move the ball
• Top Left: Shootout watch!
• Bottom Left: Maybe skip the season tickets this year.



Enjoy your college football seasons. Looking forward to a fun year of football. Go Flames!